N00b Arbitrage Tutorial - WickedFire - Affiliate Marketing Forum

BNWFinance · 09-26-2006, 10:50 PM

Okay, I'm a n00b at arbitrage - I admit that. Since so many others here at WickedFire seem to engage in this mystery, I decided to educate myself and in the meantime, educate any future n00bs that come along at the same time. It's called "giving back to the community". I also fully expect the really helpful people here at WF to chime in with advice and tips as they normally do. I'm posting this since I haven't found something like it in one place on WF yet and hopefully it will help out people who come along looking for the info like I did.

My first post here will be basic information on what arbitrage is, and how it works.

So on to some basic information:

What is "Arbitrage" ?
Arbitrage is the process by which one makes money using ads and a CPC or other ad space purchase programme to drive traffic to a web site or sites. In other words, you create a keyword-targetted web site. Then, you place ads on the web site pages. Finally, you initiate a CPC campaign or purchase ad space (there are lots of places/ways to do this) to drive traffic to your site.

What is the "trick" to making money with Arbitrage?
The "trick" is common sense: the traffic you get via your CPC campaign MUST cost less than the revenue you get back when that traffic clicks on your ads. This means that you need to do the math. Your conversion rates (ie. CTR) and the price of your CPC campaign should give you a good idea of whether a specific campaign will work or not (more in future posts as I figure this part out myself).

Hopefully this gets the ball rolling. I still need to figure out the precise math before I open my mouth and stick my foot in it. Ideally, one should be able to do a little niche market research, apply some basic math, and determine whether a niche campaign will be profitable or not before getting started.

If I've missed anything or there are inaccuracies, I'm sure the posts that come in after this will let me (and everyone else) know about it.

Jack Swift · 09-26-2006, 11:02 PM

Good post. If there's one thing I've learned about arbitrage, it's that different things work for different people. That's why it's so difficult to put together a "tutorial" on arbitrage. It's not that cut and dried. You have to be willing to experiment and lose a little money... figure out what works. Eliminate the shit that doesn't and keep plugging away.

Jdog · 09-26-2006, 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jack Swift

Good post. If there's one thing I've learned about arbitrage, it's that different things work for different people. That's why it's so difficult to put together a "tutorial" on arbitrage. It's not that cut and dried. You have to be willing to experiment and lose a little money... figure out what works. Eliminate the shit that doesn't and keep plugging away.

The other thing that is difficult is just getting people to just fucking do it.

Stanley · 09-26-2006, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jdog

The other thing that is difficult is just getting people to just fucking do it.

that's true, but the way I see it is if they dont want to do it, less competition for you

BNWFinance · 09-27-2006, 12:40 AM

So it seems there are 5 basic steps in the "Arbi" process:

1. Niche Research
2. Web site design/implementation
3. Stat Tracking and Ad Tweaking
4. ?
5. Profit

(I'll give rep to the first person who can name the reference I just made to a popular animated TV series...)

Let's talk about Niche Research. So far, I've used my Google AdWords account KeywordTool to estimate potential traffic and revenue:

https://adwords.google.com/select/KeywordToolExternal

I look for keywords (almost at random) that have low competition and average or better volume and plug in those keywords to an AdWords campaign. AdWords then spits back some numbers to me showing what I need to bid and how much traffic I can expect. Do I trust these numbers? Not really. See, they're just estimates. And they're low. Really low. I go with the recommendation in several other threads and in Jon's blog entry about $0.10 per keyword doing CPC, but I can't seem to make the numbers work on AdWords based on my current earnings via AdSense.

Let me back up a tick. I currently have sites online with AdSense that do okay. But I want them to do better than okay. I want to make a living at this. So, using the existing AdSense stats I have, I can estimate the average value of a Click Through on a given site. This will change, but its just an estimate. If my current clicks are generating $0.31 on average and my CTR is averaging around 9%. Thus, for every 1,000 visitors, I can expect roughly $27.90 in AdSense revenue. Still with me? Going back to AdWords, if I bid $0.10 on one of my niche keywords (which gets me in the 4th-6th results position) I get approximately 4-5 clicks per day. Let's assume I kick ass and get all 5 estimated clicks. It costs me $0.60 to get people to my "door". I convert at 9% so if I'm lucky, one of those people click on my ads generating me...wait for it....$0.31. This is a loss of $0.29 or 52%. There must be something I'm doing wrong here...Wrong tools (AdSense/AdWords)? Wrong method (poor research,bad math)?

To be continued...

Stanley · 09-27-2006, 12:59 AM

don't need any rep but gnomes stealing underwear are great.

1 - steal underwear
2 - ???
3 - profit!

anyway, back to arbitrage..

emp · 09-27-2006, 06:53 AM

I would guess the main culprit here is the CTR of 9%.

If you listen to Jon and others making a profit off this, it's always CTR > 30% or even >40%

Is there leakage on your sites? I.e. are there links to the outside other than ads?

::emp::

BNWFinance · 09-27-2006, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stanley

don't need any rep but gnomes stealing underwear are great.

1 - steal underwear
2 - ???
3 - profit!

anyway, back to arbitrage..

Bingo. South Park Rules!

BNWFinance · 09-27-2006, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by emp

I would guess the main culprit here is the CTR of 9%.

If you listen to Jon and others making a profit off this, it's always CTR > 30% or even >40%

Is there leakage on your sites? I.e. are there links to the outside other than ads?

::emp::

There are some, but most of them are to my other sites. Some days, the CTR is 20-30% or more on some ad blocks, but the monthly average of all blocks is 9%.

emp · 09-27-2006, 11:30 AM

Sooooo...plug those leaks.

Linking to your other sites is OK in my book, but if every one of those sites has leaks to the outside....

::emp::

BNWFinance · 09-27-2006, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by emp

Sooooo...plug those leaks.

Linking to your other sites is OK in my book, but if every one of those sites has leaks to the outside....

::emp::

Thanks for the feedback, emp - this raises a question. My partner and I are engaged in very white-hat stuff and are supplying unique content. To that end, occasionally we need to attribute our sources or provide links to more info. How do you suggest we accomplish this while limiting our outside links?

emp · 09-27-2006, 11:47 AM

You can't, really.

Another question is how well do the ads "blend in" with your content?
Have you tried the usual improvements? e.g. Adjusting the colors of the ads, putting pictures next to them, etc?

improvectr.com sums it up nicely, you might also want to browse this forum some more.

::emp::

BNWFinance · 09-27-2006, 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by emp

You can't, really.

Another question is how well do the ads "blend in" with your content?
Have you tried the usual improvements? e.g. Adjusting the colors of the ads, putting pictures next to them, etc?

improvectr.com sums it up nicely, you might also want to browse this forum some more.

::emp::

You betcha - that stuff is a must in my books. The pictures did have a major impact on CTR (we just did it this month after reading about it here on WF). Thanks again for all the tips.

chrislingle · 09-27-2006, 01:14 PM

BNW - if you are looking for a formula, I use standard deviation to determine if I am going into a niche. there are a few rules that will save you alot of money. they are very simple and must be followed.
1. there should be 1 page with NO leaks
2. content should be super general (you are not trying to educate here you want people to click ads)
3. you should run lots of sites to make a full time income!

Xrproto · 09-27-2006, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chrislingle

BNW - if you are looking for a formula, I use standard deviation to determine if I am going into a niche. there are a few rules that will save you alot of money. they are very simple and must be followed.
1. there should be 1 page with NO leaks
2. content should be super general (you are not trying to educate here you want people to click ads)
3. you should run lots of sites to make a full time income!

So there is someone else that uses standard deviation on here! I made a post awhile back asking something like that but all I remember from that was engaged saying something like stop being a bitch or one of his just do it posts.

emp · 09-27-2006, 02:10 PM

Here is the thread Xrproto is talking about:

http://wickedfire.com/showthread.php?t=2289

Anyhow... anyone care to share some more info on that "standard deviation"?
I know the statistical term, but..huh?

My standard deviation is to .. err....oops..... carry on....

::emp::

BNWFinance · 09-27-2006, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chrislingle

BNW - if you are looking for a formula, I use standard deviation to determine if I am going into a niche. there are a few rules that will save you alot of money. they are very simple and must be followed.
1. there should be 1 page with NO leaks
2. content should be super general (you are not trying to educate here you want people to click ads)
3. you should run lots of sites to make a full time income!

Chris, would you have any problem with posting your excel or formula here? Not just for me, but the other faceless throngs of n00bs? Thanks for the additional points. I think I now understand the whole point of general content and no leaks...It just makes sense from a marketing standpoint.

Jdog · 09-27-2006, 02:51 PM

http://www.wolf-howl.com/sem/adsense...utton-pushing/

I think that is a pretty good explanation.

stoxup · 09-27-2006, 02:55 PM

Another way to make your ads stand out is to make all of your text and internal links (links to other articles within your site) the same color, while using the bright blue default link color for your text ads. This keeps attention away from your other links and focuses it on your ads.

It ain't pretty but I think it boosts CTR.

Xrproto · 09-27-2006, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by emp

Here is the thread Xrproto is talking about:

http://wickedfire.com/showthread.php?t=2289

Anyhow... anyone care to share some more info on that "standard deviation"?
I know the statistical term, but..huh?

My standard deviation is to .. err....oops..... carry on....

::emp::

Ah! That's the one.

Anyway, I don't use standard deviation for arbitrage but have incorparated it into my niche choosing for some long term sites, I haven't tested any of the long term sites yet though.

Jdog · 09-27-2006, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stoxup

Another way to make your ads stand out is to make all of your text and internal links (links to other articles within your site) the same color, while using the bright blue default link color for your text ads. This keeps attention away from your other links and focuses it on your ads.

It ain't pretty but I think it boosts CTR.

Most arbitrage sites have very few if any links. This is how I do it, I make all of my content text black and then my adsense ads are the default blue, so that it jumps out at them and yells click here to leave this shit.

Jdog · 09-27-2006, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xrproto

Ah! That's the one.

Anyway, I don't use standard deviation for arbitrage but have incorparated it into my niche choosing for some long term sites, I haven't tested any of the long term sites yet though.

I think it is a waste of time for arbitrage, but I plan on trying it out on my next longer term site.

BNWFinance · 09-27-2006, 04:51 PM

From that other thread (thought it was worthwhile to post here):

From Jon:

Quote:

You can make an unlimited amount using the same template, since with arbitrage, the goal is to make money from paid traffic and not free traffic, it doesn't matter what your site looks like, as long as you get those fuckers to click and make you money. It's by far one of the easiest concepts to make money around. Whether you use AdSense (beware of smartpricing) or YPN (beware of images without borders) it doesn't matter, because with both, you can make some really great money. The CTR is nuts too, 67% on lots of sites is the norm, with per click payouts going pretty damn high.

If you're really nervous about starting out, make one site for adsense and one site for YPN, on one very simple template, using the same niche, content, ad setup and traffic, and choose the one that does better for you. Or even better, keep them both, and continue on that road. Try and spend $50 per day, per site, and just keep monitoring. And by monitoring it I don't mean hitting refresh every 2 minutes, but just look at the campaign from the ppc end and from the revenue end and see what it does for 24 hours, or until your cash runs out from it.

And please don't use Adwords for traffic, because that would be a big mistake. Use 7search or Searchfeed and just "set it and forget it!".

So using AdWords and AdSense seems to be a big mistake on my part. I'll look into 7Search and Searchfeed and YPN and report back....

emp · 09-27-2006, 05:07 PM

Well, you COULD do arbitrage using only adwords and adsense, but basically you would have to find low-priced relevant keywords in Google to link to your site trying to sell high-paying ads from Google.

It is possible, but your margin will be less than if you are using 2nd or 3rd tier engines to send traffic to your site. The prices on more relevant keywords are normally cheaper.

Blargh, I still wish I could get into YPN.

::emp::

$5 Submissions · 09-27-2006, 10:55 PM

Isn't there some sort of filtering involved. Ie., finding CHEAP CPC rates for "broad" terms to land them on pages that are "narrower" but pay higher CPC?

SohaibT · 09-28-2006, 03:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BNWFinance

So using AdWords and AdSense seems to be a big mistake on my part. I'll look into 7Search and Searchfeed and YPN and report back....

Well i was just about to post this, most people use 2nd tier PPC engines to drive traffic to arbi sites, as said by emp, you can still use Adwords for long tailed keywords that are not that popular, but your still looking at a high bid for click compared to 7search where you can bid on keywords starting at $0.01 and sometimes even cheaper.

BNWFinance · 09-28-2006, 12:37 PM

I've started a campaign on 7Search and kept my AdSense on the site. I've already started logging some clicks, but I'm not sure how to track this traffic on site (i.e. how do I know whether people are getting to my site from a 7Search related search and if they are clicking on ads or not?)

I've also got some stats related to my ad revenue:

LinkUnits:
4x180 = $0.28/click average
5x200 = $0.22/click average

AdUnits:
lg rectangle = $0.31
med rectangle = $0.32
half-banner= $0.29

So assuming I'm only paying between $0.05 and $0.25 for my keywords on 7Search, I'm golden right? Assuming the traffic from 7Search is actually clicking on ads...How do I track that? Awstats? Google Analytics? phpAds?

Saadh · 09-28-2006, 12:44 PM

If you pay 0.25 you are hoping for a 100% CTR on every click of that value?

BNWFinance · 09-28-2006, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saadh

If you pay 0.25 you are hoping for a 100% CTR on every click of that value?

I guess I'm technically breaking the $0.10 rule on some of these, but the amount of traffic was so tempting is was difficult to say no.

BNWFinance · 09-29-2006, 06:54 PM

Well, the clicks are coming though now, but I still have no numbers to back up whether these people are clicking on ads or not...I saw another thread about some ways to track these visitors and I'm thinking I may need to add these to the site simply so I can track them...What do you guys/girls use to track arbi performance?

Jdog · 09-29-2006, 07:05 PM

I'm cheap and just use http://www.statcounter.com on mine.

stealth · 09-29-2006, 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BNWFinance

Well, the clicks are coming though now, but I still have no numbers to back up whether these people are clicking on ads or not...I saw another thread about some ways to track these visitors and I'm thinking I may need to add these to the site simply so I can track them...What do you guys/girls use to track arbi performance?

Adsense Tracker for me.

Saadh · 09-29-2006, 08:33 PM

I'm about to try out Adsense Gold.

stealth · 09-29-2006, 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saadh

I'm about to try out Adsense Gold.

Same product as adsense tracker. I am real happy with it.

Saadh · 09-29-2006, 09:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stealth

Same product as adsense tracker. I am real happy with it.

Yeah just installed it and saw it is Adsense tracker. Yeah it looks real cool so far. Can't wait till some stats show up

.

By the way, can something like this help in a case if google bans you for click fraud when you really haven't?

$5 Submissions · 09-29-2006, 10:04 PM

How about growing it via viralization to maximize the PPC resources you're putting in as well?

stealth · 09-29-2006, 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saadh

Yeah just installed it and saw it is Adsense tracker. Yeah it looks real cool so far. Can't wait till some stats show up

.

By the way, can something like this help in a case if google bans you for click fraud when you really haven't?

I have not been in that situation thankfully, but it will provide you with the IP address and the ad that was clicked on. So that info could be talked about to google, however they are their own animal and do what they want.

Saadh · 09-29-2006, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stealth

I have not been in that situation thankfully, but it will provide you with the IP address and the ad that was clicked on. So that info could be talked about to google, however they are their own animal and do what they want.

Yeah I also have thankfully not been in that position, but was wondering for future reference...never know when your luck goes bad

stealth · 09-29-2006, 10:45 PM

Yep its always good to have a backup plan for sure.

chrislingle · 09-29-2006, 11:28 PM

for standard d I use the wolf howl formula, I use it for arbi and it has been a very good judge of success. The higher the answer the better I have done as far as ROI. The thing is once you get into using math to make your decisions there are many vairiables you start to look at. this could be a bad thing. I follow what wolf howl said and it works for me. try it on about 10 pages and see if you have the same success! by the way, once you have 1 or 2 days of profit even if it is just 2:1 I would move on to build another page. don't get to bogged down with this. Just my advice, you want to move forward as much as possible. what will happen is the more you build the better your ROI.
There are only so many things you can play with on a page and at some point you work backwards. Also the # of ads displayed on a page can determine how much you make. If you are running 3 ad spaces and showing 12 ads well after the top 3 or 4 you might not be making what you spent. The flip side is if you only have 4 ads they might not attrackt any clicks you have to test that.

Saadh · 09-29-2006, 11:43 PM

so how is the test site doing now? Still good?

BNWFinance · 09-30-2006, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chrislingle

for standard d I use the wolf howl formula, I use it for arbi and it has been a very good judge of success. The higher the answer the better I have done as far as ROI. The thing is once you get into using math to make your decisions there are many vairiables you start to look at. this could be a bad thing. I follow what wolf howl said and it works for me. try it on about 10 pages and see if you have the same success! by the way, once you have 1 or 2 days of profit even if it is just 2:1 I would move on to build another page. don't get to bogged down with this. Just my advice, you want to move forward as much as possible. what will happen is the more you build the better your ROI.
There are only so many things you can play with on a page and at some point you work backwards. Also the # of ads displayed on a page can determine how much you make. If you are running 3 ad spaces and showing 12 ads well after the top 3 or 4 you might not be making what you spent. The flip side is if you only have 4 ads they might not attrackt any clicks you have to test that.

Chris, can you post this formula or a link to it? This is the whole point: how do you know whether you're making 2:1 or not? I have a site that gets most of its traffic from other places than 7Search right now, so I need to figure out if the money I'm spending on 7Search is giving me ROI.....

BNWFinance · 09-30-2006, 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saadh

so how is the test site doing now? Still good?

I looked up my stats for yesterday:

7Search Clicks = 39 Cost=$5.40 Avr CPC=$0.14 Position =1.3
AdSense CTR=10.89% (with leaks plugged) Revenue=$9.79

Now before I get all excited, $9.79 is the lowest amount this week (the high was $15.79 - BEFORE arbitrage) and there were 395 impressions, so only 39 of those came from 7Search. If I assume the same CTR, that means that about 4 people from 7Search clicked an ad, bringing in an average of $0.2276/click = $0.91.

In other words, I spent $5.40 in order to make $0.91 - a NEGATIVE ROI.
One thing I'm still not sure of is why 7search reports 45,677 search results for the term I'm bidding on, and I only get 39 of them being that I am the top bid (or second from the top).

Any comments? Am I doing something wrong here? The research suggests that this niche should be profitable, but the results aren't matching the estimates being given out by 7search.

greenvy · 09-30-2006, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BNWFinance

Chris, can you post this formula or a link to it? This is the whole point: how do you know whether you're making 2:1 or not? I have a site that gets most of its traffic from other places than 7Search right now, so I need to figure out if the money I'm spending on 7Search is giving me ROI.....

The formula Chris is talking about is from here

http://www.wolf-howl.com/sem/adsense...utton-pushing/

I read Graywolf Adsense Arbitrage part.I-III, I say I have a better understanding of how PPC Arbitrage works now, compared to just yesterday where I didn't know shit!

The formula is a bit tricky but Graywolf breaks it down for yah.

Hey Chris, Graywolf uses only 4 Bids to input into the formula but recommend more to get a better reading. How many bids do you input into the formula? Top 10 bids?

chrislingle · 09-30-2006, 01:58 PM

BNW- why are you not using ad chanels in adsense? that would tell you exactly what is arbi and what is not.

BNWFinance · 09-30-2006, 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chrislingle

BNW- why are you not using ad chanels in adsense? that would tell you exactly what is arbi and what is not.

Perhaps I'm missing something, but I do use channels. All channels info tells you is who clicked on what ad block, not where they came from.

Jdog · 09-30-2006, 11:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BNWFinance

Perhaps I'm missing something, but I do use channels. All channels info tells you is who clicked on what ad block, not where they came from.

There are some programs out there to help with that, but I just turn them all off except one for a day to see what is working. I haven't found anything that works for me well other than 7search, but I'm going to try adbrite next week.

chrislingle · 10-01-2006, 03:56 AM

BNW - are you sending arbi traffic to your financial blogs? I have looked at those and I have to say they are nice blogs but they should not be used for arbi. maybe make 1 page with some general information on whatever like mutual funds, you are not trying to educate you are trying to get them to click on an ad. I do not think what you are doing, sending traffic to your blog is traditional arbi. YOu are sending traffic that is honestly crap to blogs that are designed to provide real information and well that I think might be a waiste. You might want to start an adwords campaign paying only $.05 or so and see if you get any traffic that way for your blog, the people will stay longer. Just my 2 cents not that it is worth 2 cents.

BNWFinance · 10-03-2006, 07:40 PM

I've attached an excel spreadsheet that is a great ROI calculator for this kind of thing. Let's you play with the numbers to see what will work and what won't. It only gives you numbers based on history, so its not a predictive tool. Any suggestions? Rep?

BNWFinance · 10-10-2006, 01:35 PM

So after some extensive reading and lurking here at WF, I've created my first template and example arbi web page:

http://myfinanceforum.com/personal/c...christmas.html

Any thoughts? Hints? Tips?

09-26-2006, 10:50 PM	#1 (permalink)
BNWFinance $100/day in 100 days..... Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Margaritaville Posts: 146 iTrader: 0 / 0%	N00b Arbitrage Tutorial Okay, I'm a n00b at arbitrage - I admit that. Since so many others here at WickedFire seem to engage in this mystery, I decided to educate myself and in the meantime, educate any future n00bs that come along at the same time. It's called "giving back to the community". I also fully expect the really helpful people here at WF to chime in with advice and tips as they normally do. I'm posting this since I haven't found something like it in one place on WF yet and hopefully it will help out people who come along looking for the info like I did. My first post here will be basic information on what arbitrage is, and how it works. So on to some basic information: What is "Arbitrage" ? Arbitrage is the process by which one makes money using ads and a CPC or other ad space purchase programme to drive traffic to a web site or sites. In other words, you create a keyword-targetted web site. Then, you place ads on the web site pages. Finally, you initiate a CPC campaign or purchase ad space (there are lots of places/ways to do this) to drive traffic to your site. What is the "trick" to making money with Arbitrage? The "trick" is common sense: the traffic you get via your CPC campaign MUST cost less than the revenue you get back when that traffic clicks on your ads. This means that you need to do the math. Your conversion rates (ie. CTR) and the price of your CPC campaign should give you a good idea of whether a specific campaign will work or not (more in future posts as I figure this part out myself). Hopefully this gets the ball rolling. I still need to figure out the precise math before I open my mouth and stick my foot in it. Ideally, one should be able to do a little niche market research, apply some basic math, and determine whether a niche campaign will be profitable or not before getting started. If I've missed anything or there are inaccuracies, I'm sure the posts that come in after this will let me (and everyone else) know about it. Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter

09-26-2006, 11:02 PM	#2 (permalink)
Jack Swift Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Austin, Texas Posts: 194 iTrader: 1 / 100%	Good post. If there's one thing I've learned about arbitrage, it's that different things work for different people. That's why it's so difficult to put together a "tutorial" on arbitrage. It's not that cut and dried. You have to be willing to experiment and lose a little money... figure out what works. Eliminate the shit that doesn't and keep plugging away. Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter

09-27-2006, 12:40 AM	#5 (permalink)
BNWFinance $100/day in 100 days..... Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Margaritaville Posts: 146 iTrader: 0 / 0%	So it seems there are 5 basic steps in the "Arbi" process: 1. Niche Research 2. Web site design/implementation 3. Stat Tracking and Ad Tweaking 4. ? 5. Profit (I'll give rep to the first person who can name the reference I just made to a popular animated TV series...) Let's talk about Niche Research. So far, I've used my Google AdWords account KeywordTool to estimate potential traffic and revenue: https://adwords.google.com/select/KeywordToolExternal I look for keywords (almost at random) that have low competition and average or better volume and plug in those keywords to an AdWords campaign. AdWords then spits back some numbers to me showing what I need to bid and how much traffic I can expect. Do I trust these numbers? Not really. See, they're just estimates. And they're low. Really low. I go with the recommendation in several other threads and in Jon's blog entry about $0.10 per keyword doing CPC, but I can't seem to make the numbers work on AdWords based on my current earnings via AdSense. Let me back up a tick. I currently have sites online with AdSense that do okay. But I want them to do better than okay. I want to make a living at this. So, using the existing AdSense stats I have, I can estimate the average value of a Click Through on a given site. This will change, but its just an estimate. If my current clicks are generating $0.31 on average and my CTR is averaging around 9%. Thus, for every 1,000 visitors, I can expect roughly $27.90 in AdSense revenue. Still with me? Going back to AdWords, if I bid $0.10 on one of my niche keywords (which gets me in the 4th-6th results position) I get approximately 4-5 clicks per day. Let's assume I kick ass and get all 5 estimated clicks. It costs me $0.60 to get people to my "door". I convert at 9% so if I'm lucky, one of those people click on my ads generating me...wait for it....$0.31. This is a loss of $0.29 or 52%. There must be something I'm doing wrong here...Wrong tools (AdSense/AdWords)? Wrong method (poor research,bad math)? To be continued... Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter

09-27-2006, 12:59 AM	#6 (permalink)
Stanley Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: San Diego Posts: 3,418 iTrader: 3 / 100%	don't need any rep but gnomes stealing underwear are great. 1 - steal underwear 2 - ??? 3 - profit! anyway, back to arbitrage.. Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter

09-27-2006, 06:53 AM	#7 (permalink)
emp Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 5,977 iTrader: 17 / 100%	I would guess the main culprit here is the CTR of 9%. If you listen to Jon and others making a profit off this, it's always CTR > 30% or even >40% Is there leakage on your sites? I.e. are there links to the outside other than ads? ::emp:: Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter __________________ Your Logical Fallacies - know them to avoid them That's because all programmers are also ninjas.(but not all ninjas are programmers) - LogicFlux Blind Ape Seo

09-27-2006, 11:30 AM	#10 (permalink)
emp Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 5,977 iTrader: 17 / 100%	Sooooo...plug those leaks. Linking to your other sites is OK in my book, but if every one of those sites has leaks to the outside.... ::emp:: Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter __________________ Your Logical Fallacies - know them to avoid them That's because all programmers are also ninjas.(but not all ninjas are programmers) - LogicFlux Blind Ape Seo

09-27-2006, 11:47 AM	#12 (permalink)
emp Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 5,977 iTrader: 17 / 100%	You can't, really. Another question is how well do the ads "blend in" with your content? Have you tried the usual improvements? e.g. Adjusting the colors of the ads, putting pictures next to them, etc? improvectr.com sums it up nicely, you might also want to browse this forum some more. ::emp:: Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter __________________ Your Logical Fallacies - know them to avoid them That's because all programmers are also ninjas.(but not all ninjas are programmers) - LogicFlux Blind Ape Seo

09-27-2006, 01:14 PM	#14 (permalink)
chrislingle Banned Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 2,544 iTrader: 0 / 0%	BNW - if you are looking for a formula, I use standard deviation to determine if I am going into a niche. there are a few rules that will save you alot of money. they are very simple and must be followed. 1. there should be 1 page with NO leaks 2. content should be super general (you are not trying to educate here you want people to click ads) 3. you should run lots of sites to make a full time income! Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter

09-27-2006, 02:10 PM	#16 (permalink)
emp Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 5,977 iTrader: 17 / 100%	Here is the thread Xrproto is talking about: http://wickedfire.com/showthread.php?t=2289 Anyhow... anyone care to share some more info on that "standard deviation"? I know the statistical term, but..huh? My standard deviation is to .. err....oops..... carry on.... ::emp:: Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter __________________ Your Logical Fallacies - know them to avoid them That's because all programmers are also ninjas.(but not all ninjas are programmers) - LogicFlux Blind Ape Seo

09-27-2006, 02:51 PM	#18 (permalink)
Jdog Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Phoenix Posts: 4,324 iTrader: 2 / 100%	http://www.wolf-howl.com/sem/adsense...utton-pushing/ I think that is a pretty good explanation. Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter __________________ Copeac Rocks! Bluehat SEO Must Read!

09-27-2006, 02:55 PM	#19 (permalink)
stoxup Wut Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 412 iTrader: 2 / 100%	Another way to make your ads stand out is to make all of your text and internal links (links to other articles within your site) the same color, while using the bright blue default link color for your text ads. This keeps attention away from your other links and focuses it on your ads. It ain't pretty but I think it boosts CTR. Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter

09-27-2006, 05:07 PM	#24 (permalink)
emp Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 5,977 iTrader: 17 / 100%	Well, you COULD do arbitrage using only adwords and adsense, but basically you would have to find low-priced relevant keywords in Google to link to your site trying to sell high-paying ads from Google. It is possible, but your margin will be less than if you are using 2nd or 3rd tier engines to send traffic to your site. The prices on more relevant keywords are normally cheaper. Blargh, I still wish I could get into YPN. ::emp:: Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter __________________ Your Logical Fallacies - know them to avoid them That's because all programmers are also ninjas.(but not all ninjas are programmers) - LogicFlux Blind Ape Seo

09-27-2006, 10:55 PM	#25 (permalink)
$5 Submissions Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Global Posts: 1,923 iTrader: 4 / 100%	Isn't there some sort of filtering involved. Ie., finding CHEAP CPC rates for "broad" terms to land them on pages that are "narrower" but pay higher CPC? Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter __________________ Income producing sites for sale

09-28-2006, 12:37 PM	#27 (permalink)
BNWFinance $100/day in 100 days..... Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Margaritaville Posts: 146 iTrader: 0 / 0%	I've started a campaign on 7Search and kept my AdSense on the site. I've already started logging some clicks, but I'm not sure how to track this traffic on site (i.e. how do I know whether people are getting to my site from a 7Search related search and if they are clicking on ads or not?) I've also got some stats related to my ad revenue: LinkUnits: 4x180 = $0.28/click average 5x200 = $0.22/click average AdUnits: lg rectangle = $0.31 med rectangle = $0.32 half-banner= $0.29 So assuming I'm only paying between $0.05 and $0.25 for my keywords on 7Search, I'm golden right? Assuming the traffic from 7Search is actually clicking on ads...How do I track that? Awstats? Google Analytics? phpAds? Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter

09-28-2006, 12:44 PM	#28 (permalink)
Saadh y.is.Saadh.so.loveable Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: NJ, USA. Posts: 888 iTrader: 0 / 0%	If you pay 0.25 you are hoping for a 100% CTR on every click of that value? Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter __________________ http://aimchecker.com/saadhishkabod.wf.gif

09-29-2006, 06:54 PM	#30 (permalink)
BNWFinance $100/day in 100 days..... Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Margaritaville Posts: 146 iTrader: 0 / 0%	Well, the clicks are coming though now, but I still have no numbers to back up whether these people are clicking on ads or not...I saw another thread about some ways to track these visitors and I'm thinking I may need to add these to the site simply so I can track them...What do you guys/girls use to track arbi performance? Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter

09-29-2006, 07:05 PM	#31 (permalink)
Jdog Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Phoenix Posts: 4,324 iTrader: 2 / 100%	I'm cheap and just use http://www.statcounter.com on mine. Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter __________________ Copeac Rocks! Bluehat SEO Must Read!

09-29-2006, 08:33 PM	#33 (permalink)
Saadh y.is.Saadh.so.loveable Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: NJ, USA. Posts: 888 iTrader: 0 / 0%	I'm about to try out Adsense Gold. Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter __________________ http://aimchecker.com/saadhishkabod.wf.gif

09-29-2006, 10:04 PM	#36 (permalink)
$5 Submissions Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Global Posts: 1,923 iTrader: 4 / 100%	How about growing it via viralization to maximize the PPC resources you're putting in as well? Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter __________________ Income producing sites for sale

09-29-2006, 10:45 PM	#39 (permalink)
stealth Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 146 iTrader: 0 / 0%	Yep its always good to have a backup plan for sure. Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter __________________ -Stealth

09-29-2006, 11:28 PM	#40 (permalink)
chrislingle Banned Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 2,544 iTrader: 0 / 0%	for standard d I use the wolf howl formula, I use it for arbi and it has been a very good judge of success. The higher the answer the better I have done as far as ROI. The thing is once you get into using math to make your decisions there are many vairiables you start to look at. this could be a bad thing. I follow what wolf howl said and it works for me. try it on about 10 pages and see if you have the same success! by the way, once you have 1 or 2 days of profit even if it is just 2:1 I would move on to build another page. don't get to bogged down with this. Just my advice, you want to move forward as much as possible. what will happen is the more you build the better your ROI. There are only so many things you can play with on a page and at some point you work backwards. Also the # of ads displayed on a page can determine how much you make. If you are running 3 ad spaces and showing 12 ads well after the top 3 or 4 you might not be making what you spent. The flip side is if you only have 4 ads they might not attrackt any clicks you have to test that. Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter

09-29-2006, 11:43 PM	#41 (permalink)
Saadh y.is.Saadh.so.loveable Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: NJ, USA. Posts: 888 iTrader: 0 / 0%	so how is the test site doing now? Still good? Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter __________________ http://aimchecker.com/saadhishkabod.wf.gif

09-30-2006, 01:58 PM	#45 (permalink)
chrislingle Banned Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 2,544 iTrader: 0 / 0%	BNW- why are you not using ad chanels in adsense? that would tell you exactly what is arbi and what is not. Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter

10-01-2006, 03:56 AM	#48 (permalink)
chrislingle Banned Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 2,544 iTrader: 0 / 0%	BNW - are you sending arbi traffic to your financial blogs? I have looked at those and I have to say they are nice blogs but they should not be used for arbi. maybe make 1 page with some general information on whatever like mutual funds, you are not trying to educate you are trying to get them to click on an ad. I do not think what you are doing, sending traffic to your blog is traditional arbi. YOu are sending traffic that is honestly crap to blogs that are designed to provide real information and well that I think might be a waiste. You might want to start an adwords campaign paying only $.05 or so and see if you get any traffic that way for your blog, the people will stay longer. Just my 2 cents not that it is worth 2 cents. Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter

10-10-2006, 01:35 PM	#50 (permalink)
BNWFinance $100/day in 100 days..... Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Margaritaville Posts: 146 iTrader: 0 / 0%	So after some extensive reading and lurking here at WF, I've created my first template and example arbi web page: http://myfinanceforum.com/personal/c...christmas.html Any thoughts? Hints? Tips? Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter

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