Roddenberry hit it dead-on!

posted by lukep:
I would agree with this totally, if and only if, there was some evolutionary advantage to all races turning out benevolent. Sadly, logic would dictate that many races would turn out more warlike than this, especially if there is a limited resource that we have and they want.

This makes the logical error that a culture technologically capable of large-scale interstellar travel has any need of some planet-bound resource. That is one of the main factors to which I am alluding when I mention the economic ramifications of serious interstellar travel -- the ability to harness, store and manage the energy alone would imply a general level of technology so advanced that the idea of having to take over earth for, say, our water, is just ridiculous.

I'm not saying let's get prepared for an ID4-type invasion, but to assume that all alien Civs would ignore us for our quaintness seems naive of the fact that we may be:

1. Tasty.

I will concede that exotic cuisine/sport hunting might make us marginally more interesting to an interstellar race.

2. Able to provide great slave labor.

Total nonsense. The only leap a human has over a well-designed machine is thought. The very nature of slavery obviates the value of creativity, and it is a safe assumption that most races that get around to developing intelligent, creative machines tend to go extinct shortly thereafter. So -- like the complexities of binding hydrogen and oxygen, the complexities of developing affordable manual labour that will never question its purpose, revolt, get the plague etc. are probably something already covered in the course of developing the tech required for interstellar colonisation.

3. Sitting on some resource they find hard to source elsewhere.
4. Entertaining.

See above comments.

6. Not too badly polluted.

Again, the staggering physics and technology involved in getting off the planet in the first place all but guarantee that the ability to change the planet itself is possible. Or terraform a new one, or even create one a la a Dyson Sphere.

7. Sitting on the last cheap Real Estate.

In a culture with presumptive control of matter down to the subatomic level, the notion of scarcity is almost laughable. One of the few points in which the Star Trek mythos makes any sense.

Also, consider the fact that we may be the 1st ET race that some fledgling alien race may come across... They may not have communicated with anyone else out there yet and we are as interesting as they are to us. (Again, because we're different.)

This is true. But take a look at us, and ask yourself honestly: would you want to make contact with this clusterfuck of a species? We have a long way to go before we are worth the hassle, in my opinion.

So under the circumstances, I say the odds are pretty low that they'd leave us alone. A bigger piece of that pie says they'll invade.

I'm not just saying that they'll ignore us -- sport hunters and hippies aside -- I'm saying that, looking at the tech and cultural shifts involved, the closer a society gets to actually being able to pull off practical interstellar travel, the less the incentive to actually do so becomes. Eventually the only reason to do it at all is "just because." Many of the drivers which we anthropomorphically ascribe to theoretical alien cultures -- economic scarcity, a warlord nature, etc. -- simply are extremely unlikely to apply to such a culture.


Frank
 


^I see you've given this a lot of thought, Frank. Good for you.

The one point you didn't comment on though I'd say is the best argument: 8. The Unknown.

Since we haven't reached the point of developing interstellar travel ourselves, we simply can't know what our motives and drive will be when the day comes and what technological hurdles we have yet to overcome. -Assuming they won't be warlike is like assuming Magic can't be used for evil. -We haven't seen magic; so we can't know yet.

Oh yeah, I left one out, too:

9. Gravity well Outpost. - Perhaps their propulsion still uses gravity wells like our sun to fling themselves from system to system. If so, it would make sense that they'd want a planet in each system as a waypoint station, a place to touch down, refuel, re-calculate the 'jump,' etc. Like a hotel room.

-But what if they don't like to share? And see us a insects in the way of their clean hotel room?
 
MANNED space program and exploratory space program dead, yes. We'll be back up there soon enough with privatization, but until then, we will be on Russian rockets.

But to say our space program is dead is pure ignorance and I'm pretty sure you didn't mean to broadly generalize it like that. The next major war is going to have major implications in space. Whoever can preserve their satellites and destroy everyone else's will have an extremely big upper hand. And they know this and are preparing for it more than you could imagine.

Launching satellites into space is child's play. Plus I am pretty sure we can shoot down satellites in orbit from the ground if need be. Sure the military will still launch satellites into space but thats not really going to help any of us or really better anything. The space program as we know it is dead.
 
Imagine living in a solar system where you had several planets in the Goldilocks zone. Would the 'tribe' mentality put the 2 planets against each other? When enemies have a common goal they begin cooperating pretty damn quickly. Would slaves be transported from one planet to the other? Would one planet dominate the technologically inferior one? Would there be some sort of non interference policy? Would they study them non intrusively as in many Star Trek episodes? Somewhere in the universe this is happening right now.
 
posted by lukep:
I see you've given this a lot of thought, Frank. Good for you.

Well, kid of the scifi age -- and a big fan of scifi as a kid. Then I learned physics and was like, oh damn. Then I learned history and sort of sighed sadly. Then I learned economics and wrote the whole thing off as a populist pipe dream.

It's a difficult topic for me to discuss without writing books on it, and I apologise for that very slightly late.

The one point you didn't comment on though I'd say is the best argument: 8. The Unknown.

Well, I said "Just because" because what I thought you meant by The Unknown was literally, a desire to make the Unknown into the Known. Of course it would be foolish for me to assert that all things that can be known, are now known -- if anything, the fact that our species is very keen on making the unknown known, suggests that it is not an unreasonable assumption that the general model of primitive nomad>agriculture>settlements>generational boom>generational decline is something that any intelligent species that starts out with nothing will go through. That generational declines in ancient cultures lead our ancestors to wonder, "how could we have always been here? what is on the other side of the hill?" And so they went and looked. And then we wondered how the ocean could only have one side, and we went and looked. etc. etc. etc. This fundamental push to make the unknown known is why we are not literally monkeys with sticks, and since it is difficult to imagine the mechanism by which an advanced race could just be shit into existence by Mother Nature, a love of making things known is likely a characteristic of all non-primitive species in the universe. And so -- simply saying "The fact that it is unknown is reason enough to go exploring" is actually somewhat more reasonable than saying that they might need our women/water/gold/etc.

Short version (too late!) I misunderstood what you meant.

Since we haven't reached the point of developing interstellar travel ourselves, we simply can't know what our motives and drive will be when the day comes and what technological hurdles we have yet to overcome. -Assuming they won't be warlike is like assuming Magic can't be used for evil. -We haven't seen magic; so we can't know yet.

Having the tech ability to do something, and having the practical ability are two vastly different things. We might get hypermotivated and use a lesser technology to get us out there, say ion-powered "superark" type vessels -- but all that will mean is that in a few hundred years what's left of the human race is just one of the many burned out husks of an ancient abortive attempt at interstellar travel that are floating around out there, archaeological curiosities to those races who managed to achieve political and cultural stability enough, economic prosperity enough, and technological advances enough to actually create an interstellar travel industry.

Bear in mind that a lot of people who actually went to college for this and get paid to think about it generally agree that it is unlikely that mankind will ever leave the solar system. Typical reactions to news like this ("All we have to do is harness black holes!" "It's just a matter of extending human lifespans to 1,000 years!") tend to overlook the fact that hitting those benchmarks will tend to reposition the goal posts.

The technological hurdles are pretty well known now -- it's the economic and social hurdles that are the real problems. At least with tech we can draw a map pointing in the direction of progress. Some offshoot group might well pitch off planet, and join the ranks of floating coffins out there. But meaningful, large scale, manned interstellar exploration requires co-ordination and co-operation on a level that is simply not possible for current human society to achieve. The idea that it will be an "American" thing or a "Chinese" thing or a "Russian" thing etc. demonstrates the sort of thinking that held back sea exploration for centuries.

Oh yeah, I left one out, too:

9. Gravity well Outpost. - Perhaps their propulsion still uses gravity wells like our sun to fling themselves from system to system. If so, it would make sense that they'd want a planet in each system as a waypoint station, a place to touch down, refuel, re-calculate the 'jump,' etc. Like a hotel room.

Maybe so, although that assumes that earth is an ideal standard for that life form, which might or might not be statistically probable, or that -- again, considering the enormous tech leap we're discussing -- that something has gone horribly wrong on the ship. It is hard to consider a waystation that involves actually touching down because it's a whole new set of variables. Ask a flight co-ordinator, or better yet a NASA mission planner, about what happens to the mission projections when you start adding in stops to a given trip. The variables which have to be accounted for go up exponentially, and the smart planner -- ie the one who comes from a culture that is hundreds or even thousands of years ahead of ours in every conceivable way -- would presumably go for the least complicated route possible.


-But what if they don't like to share? And see us a insects in the way of their clean hotel room?

Sure, I could see us getting exterminated -- not as something personal, but a sort of Vogon Bypass thing. I consider it pretty unlikely, since the problems that would lead to such an act again presuppose some pretty big holes in the tech required to get over her to kill us in the first place.

This part of the discussion skirts on the issue of anthropomorphics again -- some ideas like the need for waystations, and the tendency to kill everything that is mildly inconvenient, are no doubt a part of the development of many cultures throughout the universe. But the idea that getting past those ideas won't happen due to the -- again -- totally mind-blowingly staggering advances that a civilisation would realistically have to make in order to travel in space on a non-trivial level is kind of weird to me, the simplistic thinking wrought by a hundred years of "We can dream it = we can do it" scifi literature that is often taken way far away from the actual science in order to entertain.

I like scifi and all, I just am mindful of what the "fi" means.


Frank
 
BTW, for one of the best books ever written about space travel, I recommend The Case for Mars. Over and above being a fascinating and engaging read, it also throws into sharp light the huge sociopolitical issues that hold back space travel, viz. outlining the process by which government and the scientific community alike torpedoed manned Mars exploration in the 1980s despite the fact that we had the the technological ability and economic wherewithal to go to Mars decades ago. We can't get to the closest planet despite having had the ability to do so any time we feel like it for a generation, and unlike the nearest star system the nearest planet actually has some economic incentives to offer. How many more generations will it take to produce a non-clusterfuck interstellar push, if we suddenly worked out the tech this afternoon?


Frank
 
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This has got to be the most fascinating thread we've seen on WF for a long time. Thanks for the brilliant insight Frank. When I think about what it would it would take to technologically achieve interstellar space travel, and taking into consideration the last points you made about not even being able to get to Mars, I firmly believe we'll see a post apocalyptic Mad Max type Sci Fi future before we ever see interstellar space travel pretty much rendering the latter an even bigger unlikely scenario.

Dunno about them visiting us. I have met people that firmly believe they've been taken for rides on spaceships and there are far too many unexplained events for them to all be hoaxes. Until I see something with my own eyes though I'll just keep on wondering.

On a side note, anyone else looking forward to this movie?

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORb3zC8z94w]YouTube - Battle: Los Angeles Trailer HD 1080p[/ame]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_pAsPPDdC8]YouTube - Battle: Los Angeles Trailer 3 (2011) HD[/ame]

Battle: Los Angeles - Official Site
 
But meaningful, large scale, manned interstellar exploration requires co-ordination and co-operation on a level that is simply not possible for current human society to achieve.

Extraterrestrials could find us first and then share their technology. In just relative recent human history, experts thought airplanes and many other things were impossible.

Michio Kaku :
[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=geBmlndUexA]YouTube - Physics of the Impossible[/ame]
 
Sadly , the US government has crippled private space flight , EU isn't much behind in terms of killing domestic space flight either.

So that leaves it up to the Russians, Chinese and Japanese , Japanese have what it takes , Russia & China are way behind them.

If the US would get our butt in gear , we could be the world leader in space technology , but our government is more worried about taking care if muslims and sending checks to people on welfare. They've also said to private space companies that they have to PROVE to the government they can build spaceships safer than what NASA can. Not just as safe , but roughly 100 times safer than NASA can build them, which is literally impossible with current technology.
 
To Serve Man (updated version)

We will eventually come across a vast intersteller federation of civilizations which will hold great promise of utopian bliss for our world.

But there is a cost of entry into this federation which is 75% of our natural resources and labor, but that will be chickenfeed compared to the rewards we will receive after joining.

Our leaders will buy in.

But when they are shown the details of the interstellar federation we will realize that in order to reap the benefits we must recruit more planets into the federation.

A quick back-of-the-napkin calculation reveals that we need to have no less than 5 millions worlds in our down-line before we see a single benefit.

But hey, you need to think positive. Come on, Earth! You can do it!
 
I couldn't quite figure out how to related this to another post but to keep the topic going, why have we not considered the need for a launching pad in space to work off of to travel farther. Most all scifi shows a space station or building dock already in space that allows for further travel without the need to escape the atmosphere.

Sure there has been tons of drawings of space elevators and even more talk recently with graphene being a possible construction material. But I have seen articles in the past saying that private companies can launch satellites into space for about 10k a pound. Nasa says that each shuttle trip ran about $450 million.

Surely we could have sent enough parts to do something great by now. Hell I remember the original plans for the international space station. It was going to be huge until everyone backed out and we ended up with the smaller one we have now.

Just think of what we could have done with the 10 trillion dollars used to prop up our banks. It feels like we are playing a game of Civ and everyone ignored the science advisor.
 
The ETs were ready to deal with us a few yrs ago when we mapped the human genome. Then they saw Jersey Shore and decided to wait another 15,000 yrs.
 
posted by BeerNuts:
I couldn't quite figure out how to related this to another post but to keep the topic going, why have we not considered the need for a launching pad in space to work off of to travel farther. Most all scifi shows a space station or building dock already in space that allows for further travel without the need to escape the atmosphere.

It's more about escaping gravity than the atmosphere. The book I linked explores some interesting implications for lunar exploration that are implied by Martian exploration, specifically that it takes less fuel to get to the moon from Mars than it does from Earth because of the differences in the planets' respective gravity wells. Mars also makes an excellent launchpad for asteroid mining and outer system exploration.


Frank
 
aliens would never openly visit us and share technology with us. We provide them no benefit and sharing technology with us would be pretty stupid. Thats like giving a little kid loaded guns.

And id be worried about the technology and how it would affect our stupid species. If you had enough money you could buy technology that would basically help you live forever. Imagen the power hungry dictators that could rule countries forever. I think one of the main reasons we actually are moving forward as a species is because our no one could live long enough to affect more than 100 years of a certain time period (as in ruling a country).

We got a long way to go as a species.
 
Frank: That was a damn good take on it all. I nominate you for science advisor to the next president.

One thought though: I'd bet that yesterday's news, especially once we can IMAGE a lush, green & blue exo-world, will serve as a calling to all future humans forever to get off this rock...

That being the case, I think we have a lot more reason now to hope to see another system (from the inside) one day. It may take 200 years, but this new hope coupled especially with the facts of our overcrowding and globally warming world should eventually apply enough pressure on us to do something off-planet, or even off-system.

Fatbat: LotsOZeroes certainly is. (See post #15 above)

Moxie: What possible incentive would they have to share advanced tech with us? Do we share advanced tech with newly-discovered tribes in the amazon? & don't forget about the Prime Directive!

robognome: So you're saying that advanced races prefer MLM or Pyramid Scheme business models? Hmm. That's just downright disrespectful.

BeerNuts said:
It feels like we are playing a game of Civ and everyone ignored the science advisor.
Damn good quote. :thumbsup: Funny because it's so damn true! If you don't sell it to that funny T-shirt company, I will.

cryptix: If you're referring to StarCraft, It's Vespene gas, not vespian. I used to beat the CRAP out of that game back in the day... Still love it but no more time for games. ;( You played SC2 yet?

Linklover: You are a man true to your name. It's an interesting thought though; could we share an interwebz together with an alien race if they taught us to use some sort of sub-space communications channel?

That would be too cool. Imagine how many hours we'd spend exploring the universe through their version of Wikipedia... Sweet.