Well HELLO there!
I'm not too sure how many people on this forum like both the NFL and betting, but if you haven't experienced them both before, then you've been seriously missing out. The shit's like Fluffanutter and peanut butter. Seriously!
The thing with NFL betting -- and really, sports betting in general -- is that people get into it and bet a few times, then usually make a ton of common mistakes, and ultimately, they end up losing all of their money and hold a grudge against the whole process for the rest of their lives.
Basically, to make a long story short, I have a system to handicap my own NFL lines that I then compare to the Vegas/online sportsbooks line and if there's value, I bet it. Or rather, I tell other people to bet it and they pay me, haha! The entire system hit around 58% success for the majority of last year, and I managed to put together a fairly successful touting service that I'm unsurprisingly launching into this year as well.
Anyway, since I love-you-all-so-very-much-no-homo-though-you-fag-get-away-from-me, I've decided to just post all of my Week 1 picks for free on here since my tout site design plus a few other specifics still have to be ironed out. Thank you, I know that I'm very gracious! :xmas-smiley-016:
The only data to back up this weeks predictions on has been pre-season and season projections for the most part, so I wouldn't say every single one of these is big-time-bettable like normal statistical backed bets would be. But still, there's a few games on the docket this week that not only can get you back into enjoying football again, but may also win you some money betting on sports at long, long last.
If you're intrigued or interested but wondering where you should take your sports betting business, I highly recommend Bookmaker.com, BetOnline.com, 5Dimes.com and TheGreek.com, although Bookmaker.com would kick the fucking shit outta all of them if given the chance, so that's my number one recommendation. I'm pretty sure you can figure out the rest yourself, so, without any further ado:
Cue the lines*! :banana_sml:
(*Lines are subject to change at any time because... well, that's just what they fucking do, okay?)
I would say the biggest sure thing out of those three bets is the MIN (-3.5) line. It just reeks of people underrating Brett Favre's comeback as well as giving the Browns too clean of a 2009 slate. They're still dirty from last year and they still suck quite badly. The new coach isn't helping matters either.
I like the SF (+6) play the second best solely on the new bruising, head-hunting coaching style they've got via head coach Mike Singletary. And also because I think the Cardinals were a tremendous fluke last year and aren't going to be doing anything anywhere remotely close to what they accomplished last year. Kurt Warner is gonna get injured within the first four weeks -- write that fucking shit down with crayon!
The Dolphins/Falcons game should be good regardless, but I doubt Miami can match up with all of the weapons on the Falcon offense, nor can their offense put up as many points to go tit-for-tat with Atlanta.
All in all, all three of those games has a line that is more valuable to bet than what the line should actually be. It's all about betting for value in sports and it's especially true with football.
So if you're bored and have a bit of extra money, it really does make things a lot more exciting while watching football when you have scary amounts of money on whoever wins or covers a certain amount of points. I wouldn't go and bet the farm on any of these picks, but you can certainly bet a few cows and chickens and shit and still make a pretty good profit.
Any questions, just ask em in here or PM me.
- Crack
I'm not too sure how many people on this forum like both the NFL and betting, but if you haven't experienced them both before, then you've been seriously missing out. The shit's like Fluffanutter and peanut butter. Seriously!
The thing with NFL betting -- and really, sports betting in general -- is that people get into it and bet a few times, then usually make a ton of common mistakes, and ultimately, they end up losing all of their money and hold a grudge against the whole process for the rest of their lives.
Basically, to make a long story short, I have a system to handicap my own NFL lines that I then compare to the Vegas/online sportsbooks line and if there's value, I bet it. Or rather, I tell other people to bet it and they pay me, haha! The entire system hit around 58% success for the majority of last year, and I managed to put together a fairly successful touting service that I'm unsurprisingly launching into this year as well.
Anyway, since I love-you-all-so-very-much-no-homo-though-you-fag-get-away-from-me, I've decided to just post all of my Week 1 picks for free on here since my tout site design plus a few other specifics still have to be ironed out. Thank you, I know that I'm very gracious! :xmas-smiley-016:
The only data to back up this weeks predictions on has been pre-season and season projections for the most part, so I wouldn't say every single one of these is big-time-bettable like normal statistical backed bets would be. But still, there's a few games on the docket this week that not only can get you back into enjoying football again, but may also win you some money betting on sports at long, long last.
If you're intrigued or interested but wondering where you should take your sports betting business, I highly recommend Bookmaker.com, BetOnline.com, 5Dimes.com and TheGreek.com, although Bookmaker.com would kick the fucking shit outta all of them if given the chance, so that's my number one recommendation. I'm pretty sure you can figure out the rest yourself, so, without any further ado:
Cue the lines*! :banana_sml:
(*Lines are subject to change at any time because... well, that's just what they fucking do, okay?)
- - - - - - - - -
The game:
Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons
What the line should be:
ATL (-6.5)
The play (what the line really is):
ATL (-4)
Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns
What the line should be:
MIN (-6)
The play (what the line really is):
MIN (-3.5)
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
What the line should be:
SF (+4.5)
The play (what the line really is):
SF (+6)
The game:
Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons
What the line should be:
ATL (-6.5)
The play (what the line really is):
ATL (-4)
- - - - - - - - -
The game:
Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns
What the line should be:
MIN (-6)
The play (what the line really is):
MIN (-3.5)
- - - - - - - - -
The game:
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
What the line should be:
SF (+4.5)
The play (what the line really is):
SF (+6)
- - - - - - - - -
I would say the biggest sure thing out of those three bets is the MIN (-3.5) line. It just reeks of people underrating Brett Favre's comeback as well as giving the Browns too clean of a 2009 slate. They're still dirty from last year and they still suck quite badly. The new coach isn't helping matters either.
I like the SF (+6) play the second best solely on the new bruising, head-hunting coaching style they've got via head coach Mike Singletary. And also because I think the Cardinals were a tremendous fluke last year and aren't going to be doing anything anywhere remotely close to what they accomplished last year. Kurt Warner is gonna get injured within the first four weeks -- write that fucking shit down with crayon!
The Dolphins/Falcons game should be good regardless, but I doubt Miami can match up with all of the weapons on the Falcon offense, nor can their offense put up as many points to go tit-for-tat with Atlanta.
All in all, all three of those games has a line that is more valuable to bet than what the line should actually be. It's all about betting for value in sports and it's especially true with football.
So if you're bored and have a bit of extra money, it really does make things a lot more exciting while watching football when you have scary amounts of money on whoever wins or covers a certain amount of points. I wouldn't go and bet the farm on any of these picks, but you can certainly bet a few cows and chickens and shit and still make a pretty good profit.
Any questions, just ask em in here or PM me.
- Crack
