Just out of curiosity, what are you saying here? Are you suggesting that 95% of affiliates that make money now are doing so only by promoting "shady" offers that won't be available for them to promote in 5 years?
No, I'm saying 95% of affiliates currently making their income online, however that may be, won't be in five years. The 5% that still are will control the whole pie; whether that's a higher dollar amount of not.
It has nothing to do with shady offers or if the same type of offers will be around in five years.
Every new industry will start off with numerous people and slowly, through mergers, bankruptcies, etc. come down to a select few relative to the peak numbers.
Happens in the banking industry, railroad industries, beverage industries and will continue to happen in small sub-sections of the affiliate marketing industry and the industry as a whole.
Has happened with search engines in a major way, has happened to networks, has happened to ad networks, has happened to the re-bill market, has happened to the top "gurus" and is happening to affiliate marketing in general.
Everyone wants to try and monopolize. I talk about it with friends all the time about how the space is polarizing. The top x% are getting richer and the vast majority are staying roughly the same or their incomes are dropping. Never have I seen such rapid growth at the top and sluggishness below.
The top x% have larger capital reserves and, if their smart, are able to utilize that to grow faster than others with less and continue to take away market share from them. This competition and need to monopolize as much as possible leads to a higher barrier to entry in terms of cost, which is what allowed success for so many, and my initial point was that the FTC, through their regulations, also oppresses fresh blood from entering into certain segments of the industry.
Just like every industry, no matter how vast, the about of income you can make on the internet is finite. And as long as we aren't all taxed at 100% of our income there will always be a drive to monopolize as much of we can and cut others out. Now, this isn't to say five people will somehow rule the affiliate marketing industry in five years. That's absurd for what is still a pretty free industry with a relatively low barrier of entry. The number will still be in the thousands I'm sure. But those thousands will be much richer than they are now and tens to hundreds of thousands will retire from the industry.