The Real 2012 Republican Delegate Count



Better, but still not accurate. Biggest issue is they have allocated delegates in states based off of primary votes even though the state conventions haven't occurred yet. They should show a zero vote total for those since the delegate counts in those states are unknown. That would significantly lower Romney's total. I would like to see a delegate total on just the ones that have already been awarded.

nickycakes said:
So basically ron paul has 0 chance as expected.
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He's already virtually guaranteed a brokered convention by winning delegate majorities in so many states. That does not ensure he'll win, but it will probably prevent Romney from winning.

The only thing that can stop it now is if the courts get involved. Romney already dun goofed.
 
Unarmed Gunman said:
Better, but still not accurate. Biggest issue is they have allocated delegates in states based off of primary votes even though the state conventions haven't occurred yet. They should show a zero vote total for those since the delegate counts in those states are unknown. That would significantly lower Romney's total. I would like to see a delegate total on just the ones that have already been awarded.
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Good point. The video on the site is good. If more TV reporters were like him, I'd actually watch the news.
 
jryan21 said:
Here's a map based on plurality, they're not giving states to anyone until enough delegates have been selected to make it official (i.e: state conventions have happened):
File:Republican Party presidential primaries results, 2012 by plurality.svg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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I live in Michigan - our state convention isn't for another 8 days, so this isn't accurate either.

Also, even in states like Nevada where they did have their state convention most of those delegates (22 of 28) are Ron Paul supporters. The state is given to Romney because the delegates are not allowed to vote for a different candidate in the first round of voting, but they can (and will) abstain, thereby denying Romney 1,144 delegates in the first round of voting. At that point, they are released and are free to vote for Ron Paul. The same thing applies to Iowa, Missouri, Louisiana, etc - all states where Ron Paul controls the majority of delegates.

By the way, this is also why all of the candidates that have dropped out of the campaign "suspended" their campaign, rather than ending it. They will be able to jump back in at the convention if they want and it will be a free for all.
 
This is the most accurate map I've been able to find (at least I think). Fucking stupid how everyone reports different shit and the mainstream news is straight up lying.

jIjBxPU54JHM2.png
 
Unarmed Gunman said:
I live in Michigan - our state convention isn't for another 8 days, so this isn't accurate either.

Also, even in states like Nevada where they did have their state convention most of those delegates (22 of 28) are Ron Paul supporters. The state is given to Romney because the delegates are not allowed to vote for a different candidate in the first round of voting, but they can (and will) abstain, thereby denying Romney 1,144 delegates in the first round of voting. At that point, they are released and are free to vote for Ron Paul. The same thing applies to Iowa, Missouri, Louisiana, etc - all states where Ron Paul controls the majority of delegates.

By the way, this is also why all of the candidates that have dropped out of the campaign "suspended" their campaign, rather than ending it. They will be able to jump back in at the convention if they want and it will be a free for all.
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I think the guys maintaining that map are getting some of their information from greenpapers. In the case of Michigan (and probably a couple other states on there), they are giving it to Romney because he got awarded 16/30 based on the primary and guaranteed a plurality as such:

Tuesday 28 February 2012: 30 of 30 of Michigan's delegates to the Republican National Convention are bound to presidential contenders based on the results of the voting in today's Michigan Presidential Primary.

The Michigan Republicans will bind 2 delegates to the candidate receiving the most votes in each CD and bind the remaining delegates proportionally according to the statewide vote with a 15% threshold.
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http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/MI-R#0228

But the other 14 were bound to Santorum, so when you have your convention, those seats can be got (and even the other 16 and all the alternates) by Paul people. EDIT: just noticed if a candidate suspends in MI, his delegates are released...
Presidential candidates may not be allocated National Convention delegates if they withdraw, suspend their campaign, endorse another Presidential candidate, or seek the nomination of another political party for any political office.
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This map (from above) is one that went out on facebook a few days ago that is making the rounds:
jIjBxPU54JHM2.png


It represents states where the majority of humans (who may or may not have been officially selected yet) in the delegate seats for that state support Paul, and doesn't take into account who they are bound to vote for on the 1st ballot. It is still significant though, because it gives a good idea of what will happen on a floor vote, or anything other than voting for a presidential candidate.
 
jryan21 said:
jIjBxPU54JHM2.png


It represents states where the majority of humans (who may or may not have been officially selected yet) in the delegate seats for that state support Paul, and doesn't take into account who they are bound to vote for on the 1st ballot. It is still significant though, because it gives a good idea of what will happen on a floor vote, or anything other than voting for a presidential candidate.
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This one is more accurate although I still don't think Michigan (or any other states that haven't had their convention) should be in any candidates column. Each state has their own rules for their state convention and if Ron Paul's people gain control of the state party like they did in Maine, the rules change.
 
Garrett said:
jIjBxPU54JHM2.png
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I'm not in love with this map... For one thing it shows us clearly winning MO, when I happen to know we're a bit behind here. But for another, it is offering knowledge of some "undercover" delegates from robme but apparently not from Frothy or Newt... Those guys are flocking to Paul easily but their states are still representing them here.

Anyway, I've started using this guy's wiki on Mises.org:

Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012 - MisesWiki

It's clearly the best & most accurate Scoreboard of the 2012 race published anywhere... Should have known the folks at Mises would do this.
 
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