Bitcoin Willy Report

Thorn

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Apr 29, 2013
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The Willy Report

Some pretty good read about mtgox, price manipulation and the bubble.
Pretty good brought to proof with order log data, examples and more.

The only point is ... anyone really believed something else?
 


FBI seems to be out and about. They just transferred 174,000 bitcoins, so about.,. $105mm USD worth or so. And sure enough, bitcoin is plummeting right now due to it. Hope the FBI doesn't dump that many coins onto the open market.
Panicked children... Dumping 30k coins into a market of 13 Million isn't exactly going to send us back into 2012 pricing... It might not even tank the price at all, even if all 30k were sold at exchange at the same time!

I doubt anyone buying that many coins is in it just to flip a quick dollar. Maybe a few, but it's usually the true-believers that are looking to load-up that much coin and willing to pay anything up to the current price to get it.

Thankfully, multisignature wallets like BitGo are about to become the norm, even in sites like the silk road... It'll be impossible for fedcoats to seize coins anymore once those are ubiquitous, so this was just a low-tech history lesson that hopefully is over this year and never dreamed of again.
 
LukeP I love your passsion, and I agree bitcoin was the big bang that needed to happen to bring this new model into existence.

I do not believe that btc will be the forever reigning champion though. In fact I will bet you 100 push ups that it is not the reigning champion in terms market cap X volume in 2 years or less.

The problem with bitcoin is it was the innovator and the first great idea but no matter how great Gavin and Satoshi did they could not think of all the problems, limitations and other opportunities that would float up out of the blockchain.

I know btc can do everything right? "just ride on the blockchain man," but due to bloat, the same politics that Bitcoin was invented to get away from are coming up and surfacing. Look at the btc board...pretty similar to old paradigm and there is good people in there (bad ones too) and that is how politics have always started.
Let me ask you this. What is the use of a btc board? To keep track of a psuedo anonymous decentralized system where all of the community is involved?

I believe the future is is brighter than bitcoin and that was the original goal of the creator. I would bet another 100 push ups that Satoshi's goal was not to make btc the alpha & omega, just the beginning.


Panicked children... Dumping 30k coins into a market of 13 Million isn't exactly going to send us back into 2012 pricing... It might not even tank the price at all, even if all 30k were sold at exchange at the same time!

I doubt anyone buying that many coins is in it just to flip a quick dollar. Maybe a few, but it's usually the true-believers that are looking to load-up that much coin and willing to pay anything up to the current price to get it.

Thankfully, multisignature wallets like BitGo are about to become the norm, even in sites like the silk road... It'll be impossible for fedcoats to seize coins anymore once those are ubiquitous, so this was just a low-tech history lesson that hopefully is over this year and never dreamed of again.
 
I simply don't understand how BTC is going to be a viable currency if its price is going to go up forever... why would anyone ever spend one instead of hoarding it?
 
I do not believe that btc will be the forever reigning champion though. In fact I will bet you 100 push ups that it is not the reigning champion in terms market cap X volume in 2 years or less.
Oh my, do I smell a friendly wager brewing here?

Pushups suck as a means of fulfilling debt obligations. You could fiver that shit. Let's use cryptocurrency instead. ;)

Here's the bet, if you're up for some fun:

The loser pays the winner 1 coin of whatever the dominant (highest market cap in USD) cryptocurrency is in 2 years from today.

Despite the seemingly infinite variations for cryptocoins yet to be discovered, I wager that the coin with the highest market cap will still be bitcoin.

In the event that the USD is no longer a useful currency for measurement, (hyperinflated) we should use the Yuan to measure market cap.

At the end of the bet, the winner places his public address for payment here on this thread and everyone on WF will be able to see on the blockchain if the payment has been fulfilled. Our honor as gay webmasters will be verifiably at stake.

Do we have a bet good sir?

One word of warning; whatever the price of the largest cryptocurrency is in 2 years from now, I expect it to be two orders of magnitude higher than it is right now... ie $650 -> $65,000 So I'd advise you to stick a bitcoin away right now and sit on it for the next 2 years.


I simply don't understand how BTC is going to be a viable currency if its price is going to go up forever... why would anyone ever spend one instead of hoarding it?
3 points to consider about volatility:

1. Compared to currencies like those in Argentina and Venuzela right now, a bitcoin is far less volatile than what they have so it's actually desirable in such hotspots.

2. Many upcoming apps & services have been announced to combat volatility, like the Zeroblock multi-exchange trading platform (allowing for exchange arbitrage) and an exciting derivatives platform on wall street. The holy grail here will of course be a fully decentralized, peer-to-peer exchange that somehow accepts fiat dollars; I know of over a dozen different teams working on exactly that already.

3. But most importantly, bitcoin has been acting like a "viable currency" for a while now already. i.e. People are using it to buy just about anything from tens of thousands of different vendors daily, despite the volatility. It's simply so superior to fiat that they're willing to put up with volatility risk.​

So I stopped worrying about volatility a long time ago; it's days are numbered and it just doesn't matter as much as people think it does.

Then there's this: MIT Report Shows Bitcoin more likely spent than hoarded
 
Thankfully, multisignature wallets like BitGo are about to become the norm


Couple things about multisigs:

1.) They're not as secure as they've been paraded out to be. The one problem they do help address quite nicely is they make bitcoin more trustless, and *help* ensure the site owner can't steal user funds. Please note though, it's only a few lines of Javascript that have to be added by either, the site owner or a hacker, and they will have full access to funds of all new users. There's already been some reports of injection attacks, and I'm sure will be more to come.

That, and most of these wallet services seem to use a 12 word mnemonic password, which means about a 8 - 14 character password, which in my mind isn't overly secure. To get to a user's funds you need, a) the company password / seed which will be sitting in their database somewhere, and b) that 8 - 14 character user password which is usually sitting in their browser. If a hacker gets those two things, a customer's funds are gone.

And to top it off, it's very reliant on the client side, and most people who know what they're talking about will tell you that's a really bad idea. These multisig wallets are coming out because people are sick and tired of a site owner running off with a user's funds, and this helps ensure that can't happen. Don't confuse that with actual security though.

2.) Adoption is unfortunately slower than many people would like to see. For the past while I've been stuck watching the transactions and blocks flow through the network, and you don't see many multisigs. You do see them, but they're few and far between. And a multisig and standard transaction have a couple key differences, so it's easy to point them out as they flow through the blockchain.


---------------------------------------------------

I do agree with you now that bitcoin will always be #1 for various reasons:

1.) So far, all the altcoins are just cheap knockoffs of bitcoin. They take bitcoind, change a few configuration paramters, slap a new logo on it, maybe add a new PoW concept, and call it a new coin. They're generally just shitty knock offs of bitcoin.

2.) Bitcoin has all the talent. The core devs are really intelligent guys who know their stuff, and there's zero chance of them leaving bitcoin. Guys like dogecoin don't have developers of that caliber, and never will.

3.) Well, bitcoin has all the investor and VC interest, merchant adoption, etc. A new coin trying to compete with that is in for quite the uphill battle. It's like a new search engine trying to knock out Google.
 
First, did you know if you search for "bitcoin" literally every thread pops up?

Anyway, FBI seems to be out and about. They just transferred 174,000 bitcoins, so about.,. $105mm USD worth or so. And sure enough, bitcoin is plummeting right now due to it. Hope the FBI doesn't dump that many coins onto the open market.

https://blockchain.info/address/1FfmbHfnpaZjKFvyi1okTjJJusN455paPH

https://blockchain.info/address/1F1tAaz5x1HUXrCNLbtMDqcw6o5GNn4xqX

US Marshals are auctioning off the SR1 coins on the 27th

USMS Asset Forfeiture Sale
 
Luke, what do you think of ghash.io getting 51% of the hash rate? This could end badly, eh? So far they haven't done anything nefarious, although I have seen some reports of double spends. That, and they managed to get a 0 transaction block confirmed a few days back, hence got 25 BTC free.

Oh, and confirmed with one of the core bitcoind devs -- this whole multisig thing you're excited about is bullshit. I was wracking my brain with it, but just didn't see it, so questioned it. Sure enough, it's bullshit, and moreless just a marketing gimmick.

This whole push of, "we don't see your password, because it's encrypted in your browser" doesn't improve security at all. If anything, I would argue that it weakens it because, a) it adds more points of attack, b) passes responsibility of network security onto the user, c) doesn't stop a nefarious site owner from stealing funds, and d) doesn't stop the fact that if the server is compromised, so are all user funds.
 
When I look at these threads I don't know what teh fuck is going on. All those charts and graphs Imma go play cs go
 
Couple things about multisigs:

1.) They're not as secure as they've been paraded out to be. The one problem they do help address quite nicely is they make bitcoin more trustless, and *help* ensure the site owner can't steal user funds. Please note though, it's only a few lines of Javascript that have to be added by either, the site owner or a hacker, and they will have full access to funds of all new users. There's already been some reports of injection attacks, and I'm sure will be more to come.
Y U always do this? Small technical issues like this are always identified and squashed in short order when it comes to bitcoin. One person is going to get injected and stolen from, a raging post will go up on reddit, and the following day some coder will have solved the problem... That's just business as usual in bitcoinland.



and most of these wallet services seem to use a 12 word mnemonic password, which means about a 8 - 14 character password, which in my mind isn't overly secure. To get to a user's funds you need, a) the company password / seed which will be sitting in their database somewhere, and b) that 8 - 14 character user password which is usually sitting in their browser. If a hacker gets those two things, a customer's funds are gone.
Good seedmaking practicies is surely something people are going to be teaching very soon.

I was looking through Bitcore from Bitpay yesterday and realized how easy it's going to be for hackers to do batch/bulk inspecting of the contents of wallets in seed-generated wallets. Rest assured anyone with an easy 12-word mneumonic password is going to have their funds stolen. These services still using that archaic system will either upgrade or teach how to make them far safer than an 8-14 character password is.


And to top it off, it's very reliant on the client side, and most people who know what they're talking about will tell you that's a really bad idea. These multisig wallets are coming out because people are sick and tired of a site owner running off with a user's funds, and this helps ensure that can't happen. Don't confuse that with actual security though.
Again, issues that tech improvements will eradicate. I've heard Andreas talk on how to fix this very issue, so you can be sure there's already 100 different coding projects started up with different approaches on eradicating it asap.


2.) Adoption is unfortunately slower than many people would like to see. For the past while I've been stuck watching the transactions and blocks flow through the network, and you don't see many multisigs. You do see them, but they're few and far between. And a multisig and standard transaction have a couple key differences, so it's easy to point them out as they flow through the blockchain.
This is going to be a perfect example of Hemmingway's famous quote:

"It will happen gradually, then suddenly."

The ability to truly use multisigs has only been around since the latest bitcoin core update, I believe 4 months ago. Since then shittons of different companies have said that they're going to offer a multisig solution, and BitGo seems to be the first to do it well. -Meanwhile, BitPay says they'll offer theirs soon, and blockchain is working on theirs as well.

With those kinds of guns working on multisig all at once, I have no doubt whatsoever that they'll iron out every last bug from multisig within a few months and bitcoin wallets will no longer be something that hackers find easy pickings anymore. It'll become big-resource business again, like bulk credit card DB hacks are, (but far less frequent) because they'll need to hack in and steal both the customer's privkey and the providers' privkey AND match them together to see a payday. That isn't going to be as easy as CC DB breaches are today at all.


---------------------------------------------------

I do agree with you now that bitcoin will always be #1 for various reasons:

1.) So far, all the altcoins are just cheap knockoffs of bitcoin. They take bitcoind, change a few configuration paramters, slap a new logo on it, maybe add a new PoW concept, and call it a new coin. They're generally just shitty knock offs of bitcoin.

2.) Bitcoin has all the talent. The core devs are really intelligent guys who know their stuff, and there's zero chance of them leaving bitcoin. Guys like dogecoin don't have developers of that caliber, and never will.

3.) Well, bitcoin has all the investor and VC interest, merchant adoption, etc. A new coin trying to compete with that is in for quite the uphill battle. It's like a new search engine trying to knock out Google.
Yes! You're starting to come around... Remember though; There is a robust incentive structure between the merchant adoption, consumer adoption, and miners.

  • More merchants accepting bitcoin makes bitcoin more attractive to more consumers. ->
  • The more consumers that buy bitcoin raises the price of a bitcoin which is attractive to miners. ->
  • The more hashing power that miners add to bitcoin makes it more secure for merchants to want to adopt it. ->
  • Goto 10

It's a self-enforcing, positive feedback loop that simply will not stop growing until bitcoin is accepted by all merchants on the planet. This was Satoshi's plan from the beginning. That bitcoin from LiamLennon above is an extremely safe bet. ;)



US Marshals are auctioning off the SR1 coins on the 27th

USMS Asset Forfeiture Sale
Excellent. I'm thrilled for the fedcoats to no longer own those coins. Here's hoping that most of them are sold to believers and not quick-flippers.


Luke, what do you think of ghash.io getting 51% of the hash rate? This could end badly, eh? So far they haven't done anything nefarious, although I have seen some reports of double spends. That, and they managed to get a 0 transaction block confirmed a few days back, hence got 25 BTC free.
It's an interesting situation, best summed up by this reddit image:

AX4NSyK.png


And all these people forget totally what Andreas said here:

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWTQgmCuiCw]Andreas Antonopoulos Says States Can't Stop Bitcoin - YouTube[/ame]

Nevertheless, they make threads like these, offering 25 Bitcoin bounties to solve the problem:

This is RIDICULOUS. Andreas Antonopoulos, I will personally pay you 25BTC if start the conversation on Eliminating Pools & Solo Miners w/ frequent payouts... : Bitcoin


Ugh; It's a clusterfuck but it's more a problem with reality not keeping up with our idealism than it is one of actual security.

I guess in a couple more cycles Cex.io will have some competition and we can put this one to rest. I'm not worried at all though; Cex.io has far more to lose than gain by counterfeiting a single transaction, even if they could get away with it.



Oh, and confirmed with one of the core bitcoind devs -- this whole multisig thing you're excited about is bullshit. I was wracking my brain with it, but just didn't see it, so questioned it. Sure enough, it's bullshit, and moreless just a marketing gimmick.
I get MY info from the bitcoin devs, so I'd really like to see your source on this. Both Gavin & Andreas still seem gung-ho on multisig, as far as I can see. Wladimir van der Laan, the new core dev, doesn't seem to have said anything lately about it.



This whole push of, "we don't see your password, because it's encrypted in your browser" doesn't improve security at all. If anything, I would argue that it weakens it because, a) it adds more points of attack, b) passes responsibility of network security onto the user, c) doesn't stop a nefarious site owner from stealing funds, and d) doesn't stop the fact that if the server is compromised, so are all user funds.
Again, details that will be solved as soon as they need to be. Does the encryption need to happen at any level other than simply sending the co-signer service their privkey? Certainly that is doable... Just have a local app generate the 3 signatures, print the storage signature immediately without showing it on the screen, and wrap one in GPG and send it manually to the approved address for that co-signer service, deleting all trace of it from your computer immediately afterwards.

You wouldn't ever need the 3rd key back; once the co-signer has it, that wallet exists between your computer and theirs and it should never be modified/moved in any way. Luckily, even multisig addresses are disposable so this is a good thing, as Satoshi had wanted.
 
Too rich for my blood LukeP although if I had it and could cover it I would be in. All my funds have been going to my own crypt0 project.
Maybe that guy will accidentally send me 50k of BTC or something and then I will be in.
I will do a bet at todays pricing though...and say we round it off to 600$? With 25% going to the charity of the winners choice?
I know your 25% will go to Brock Peirce. Just breaking balls now buddy. :-)

I do agree with Matt that 98% of alt's are crap.
Matt, any ideas on something better than muti sig? It isn't perfect but it is a lot better than anything else we have right now. Anything online or in code is subject to getting jacked.
These guys have an interesting idea. Coinffeine

Wow...just rambling now...
these guys have rocketed to the top recently (never heard of them before today) neutrinocoin.org/...and passed master coin (BTC blockchain "tokens") pretty quickly. Look at the daily volume on Mastercoin, lulz.
I do hope the Maidsafe guys make it though...but there is nothing to show for it so far.

Here's an interesting thing to check out...since BTC starting going down only non POW coins are holding steady at the same time or going up. Times are changing as in the past everything went up or down with BTC but now there is different elements at play.
I happen to think DRK is a great coin instamine or whatever, it has some great features. I am hoping the code is released for all to work on it.

In regards to the core dev's etc. They act like it is all an open free for all, but we know that is not true.
There have been instances when the Counterparty guys needed a very reasonable request and they couldn't get the core dev's to do it.
Even though XCP is working off of the BTC blockchain.

Again, I will say that the first iteration of any great tech breakthrough never lasts. It never has and never will especially when it is the open source variety.
Many great dev's are jumping ship due to the politics (Brock Peirce...cmon cerealy??) , they see the problem with POW, they see the problem with bloat with the BC/ side chains/ app coins, they see the problem with Wall Street guys coming inside of a wooden horse and then doing what they do, they see the problem of pseudo-anonymity....and so do I.

Luke hit me on skype buddy, would love to chat with you.

For all you youngsters Bitcoin is still a great bet and I am no way offering financial advice, nor am involved MGrunin. But I am sleeping on his dads couch.

Oh my, do I smell a friendly wager brewing here?

Pushups suck as a means of fulfilling debt obligations. You could fiver that shit. Let's use cryptocurrency instead. ;)

Here's the bet, if you're up for some fun:

The loser pays the winner 1 coin of whatever the dominant (highest market cap in USD) cryptocurrency is in 2 years from today.

Despite the seemingly infinite variations for cryptocoins yet to be discovered, I wager that the coin with the highest market cap will still be bitcoin.

In the event that the USD is no longer a useful currency for measurement, (hyperinflated) we should use the Yuan to measure market cap.

At the end of the bet, the winner places his public address for payment here on this thread and everyone on WF will be able to see on the blockchain if the payment has been fulfilled. Our honor as gay webmasters will be verifiably at stake.

Do we have a bet good sir?

One word of warning; whatever the price of the largest cryptocurrency is in 2 years from now, I expect it to be two orders of magnitude higher than it is right now... ie $650 -> $65,000 So I'd advise you to stick a bitcoin away right now and sit on it for the next 2 years.



3 points to consider about volatility:
1. Compared to currencies like those in Argentina and Venuzela right now, a bitcoin is far less volatile than what they have so it's actually desirable in such hotspots.

2. Many upcoming apps & services have been announced to combat volatility, like the Zeroblock multi-exchange trading platform (allowing for exchange arbitrage) and an exciting derivatives platform on wall street. The holy grail here will of course be a fully decentralized, peer-to-peer exchange that somehow accepts fiat dollars; I know of over a dozen different teams working on exactly that already.

3. But most importantly, bitcoin has been acting like a "viable currency" for a while now already. i.e. People are using it to buy just about anything from tens of thousands of different vendors daily, despite the volatility. It's simply so superior to fiat that they're willing to put up with volatility risk.​
So I stopped worrying about volatility a long time ago; it's days are numbered and it just doesn't matter as much as people think it does.

Then there's this: MIT Report Shows Bitcoin more likely spent than hoarded
 
@KM "most of these wallet services seem to use a 12 word mnemonic password, which means about a 8 - 14 character password"
Is it 12 words, or 8-14 characters? That's a big difference.

" a) the company password / seed which will be sitting in their database somewhere" Not using a company provided multi sig service would solve this. There is no need to use a company. Thus bitgo is not a good option.
 
" Since then shittons of different companies have said that they're going to offer a multisig solution, and BitGo seems to be the first to do it well. -Meanwhile, BitPay says they'll offer theirs soon, and blockchain is working on theirs as well."

Luke...why do we need a "company" for multi sig? Doesn't sound decentralized to me at all. There is no need for a company...just a trusted 3rd party.
 
You can't afford 1 single coin with two years to plan for it? C'mon man... This couldn't get any sweeter...

Is it 12 words, or 8-14 characters? That's a big difference.
Neither example is right, per se. I'll give a simplified example, but it's safer than either of us have talked about so far.

If your password could only contain lowercase letters, then a 2-letter password would have 26x26 or 676 combinations, right?

But if it allows uppercase, lowercase, numbers, and special charachters, then it's more like 90x90 or 8100 combos just for a 2-letter password.

Those seed words that can generate wallets are far more than 90... It's supposed to be every dictionary word between 3 and 10 letters in length, and I have no idea whose dictionary they are using. So if it only allowed 2 "words" that act like 2 characters, then it's more like 100,000x100,000 or 1,000,000,000,000 combos. -At 14 words it's pretty fucking uncrackable without quantum computers. (But 8 obvious words, like a common sentence, would be guessable by algorythyms. So don't let it make sense!)



Edit - Many great dev's *(I meant board members) are jumping ship due to the politics (Brock Peirce...cmon cerealy??)
We don't need the board at all though... They are a sideshow distraction, nothing more. As soon as the state stops wasting its' time trying to play nice with the foundation, it will shrivel up and go away.

I AM thankful for their efforts; but it just isn't needed to make bitcoin safe or run better in any way.


Luke...why do we need a "company" for multi sig? Doesn't sound decentralized to me at all. There is no need for a company...just a trusted 3rd party.
Dude, multisigs are freaking awesome, and yes, you most definitely want to have 3rd parties involved with them. The 3rd party is basically an escrow service, but you as the wallet holder have two keys, and the escrow provider only holds one... So they can NEVER get at your funds without stealing a 2nd key from you. (And your computer can never spend your funds without them allowing it either.)

Here's a great video about them:
[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIbUSaZBJgU]Bitcoin 101 - Multi-Signature Addresses pt1 - Coding This Major Security Improvement - YouTube[/ame]

Exciting shit. I actually started to create my own multisig escrow service until bitpay said they're jumping in. :2gunsfiring_v1:
 
<gmaxwell> thats not multisignature, thats the crappy, and totally insecure bc.i sales pitch. It's snake oil.
There you go luke. Anyway, I'm too drunk to type, let alone string together a coherent thought process, so will respond better tomorrow.