A Few Predictions for 2015 in IM

cheshire said:
It would take far less than that. 90% of their business is selling search ads. The other "HUGE" markets they're in aren't profitable and will dry up as soon as the ads division stops making money. Slowly competitors are pecking away at that business. Google needs another cash cow or a competitor will step up and dominate them.

Just ask Yahoo...
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I think comparing to Yahoo is a bit of a stretch now. I understand Yahoo was once on top, but would you agree that it's not to the point where Google is now?

The amount of influence Google has over the web is massive.

List of Google products - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
List of mergers and acquisitions by Google - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I'm not saying they can never fall, but to happen in under a year is where it gets to be unbelievable.

Their current power play in the mobile/cellphone market, staring to turn the tides on being an internet provider, the massive amount of marketable data they have on everyone, etc. They're not just sitting on their money and collecting checks.

Edit: Kind of realized I got away from the point of them just not being on top of search, which I still think is a stretch in under a year with the dominance they have in the area. Even if someone had better search technology Google could buy them, and or the new search company would still have issues getting on any of the devices. All these other companies now have their own devices or make deals to become the default search engine on the browser.
 


These are pretty much a lock:

conjamuk said:
Gmail payments failing.
Euro and oil drop to record lows.
Backlinks having a much much lower factor in ranking or being eliminated completely like Yandex did.
Google plus killed off
Negative seo becomes less effective.
SEO actually becomes easier.
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The FTC will bust a number of companies for using "native ads" in a deceptive fashion while CNN, MSNB, Huffpost continue to bring in a ton of ad revenue from them with no issues.
 
JulianTrueFlynn said:
I think comparing to Yahoo is a bit of a stretch now. I understand Yahoo was once on top, but would you agree that it's not to the point where Google is now?

The amount of influence Google has over the web is massive.

List of Google products - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
List of mergers and acquisitions by Google - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I'm not saying they can never fall, but to happen in under a year is where it gets to be unbelievable.

Their current power play in the mobile/cellphone market, staring to turn the tides on being an internet provider, the massive amount of marketable data they have on everyone, etc. They're not just sitting on their money and collecting checks.

Edit: Kind of realized I got away from the point of them just not being on top of search, which I still think is a stretch in under a year with the dominance they have in the area. Even if someone had better search technology Google could buy them, and or the new search company would still have issues getting on any of the devices. All these other companies now have their own devices or make deals to become the default search engine on the browser.
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Google is still a one-trick pony and will likely stay that way for a very long time. All those side projects like Google fiber, self-driving cars, glass, cloud, etc don't even move the needle and just cost them $$.

Even though their ad revenue is slowing, they can ride that pony for a very long time as long as they stay focused. Yahoo/Bing are soooooo far behind in the rear-view mirror it's not a threat anytime soon. Nobody is going to take much, if any market share from them in 2015 that is a given.
 
miketpowell said:
The FTC will bust a number of companies for using "native ads" in a deceptive fashion while CNN, MSNB, Huffpost continue to bring in a ton of ad revenue from them with no issues.
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You're more than likely right, big brands that use 3rd party ad-serving platforms like Adblade/Pulse360/etc will get plausible deniability for serving shady ads they are fully aware of are shady (but profitable). Meanwhile, AGs and FTC will let them off the hook while they play whack-a-mole, instead of just telling the big brands they are responsible for what's on their sites, which would fix the issue overnight, with far less cost and hassle.
 
JulianTrueFlynn said:
Google would literally have to be found to be funding ISIS, have connections to Hitler rising to power, and helped Mike Vick drown puppies for PR alone in order to not be top dog anymore.
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Not gonna lie, I would still use Google even if this shit were true. Until someone can do a better job or change the way people actually think about search, Google will reign supreme.
 
mont7071 said:
Meanwhile, AGs and FTC will let them off the hook while they play whack-a-mole, instead of just telling the big brands they are responsible for what's on their sites, which would fix the issue overnight, with far less cost and hassle.
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Doesn't Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act make it impossible for the FTC to tell big brands/publishers that they are responsible for the 3rd party ads on their sites?
 
Grindlists will so revolutionize the GSA linkbuilding experience that it will spawn not 1 but 2 copycat services...within 30 days of its initial public launch.

#notsohumblebrag
 
cardine said:
Doesn't Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act make it impossible for the FTC to tell big brands/publishers that they are responsible for the 3rd party ads on their sites?
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not really, although they could certainly make that argument. The CDA protects website owners from liability for postings done by third-parties, but where the website is engaged in a commercial activity to sell those ad spots for profit, and has oversight on what is shown, who gets billed, etc (even if they choose not to), I think it'd be a stretch to get immunity under the CDA, especially in California, which would extend liability pretty quick under some of their state laws.

It is at least partially why a lot of those big sites don't cut out the middleman on ad sales, even ones that have enough pull in the market that you would think it would be more profitable for them to sell all their remnant ad space direct, plausible deniability and all...
 
mont7071 said:
not really, although they could certainly make that argument. The CDA protects website owners from liability for postings done by third-parties, but where the website is engaged in a commercial activity to sell those ad spots for profit, and has oversight on what is shown, who gets billed, etc (even if they choose not to), I think it'd be a stretch to get immunity under the CDA, especially in California, which would extend liability pretty quick under some of their state laws.

It is at least partially why a lot of those big sites don't cut out the middleman on ad sales, even ones that have enough pull in the market that you would think it would be more profitable for them to sell all their remnant ad space direct, plausible deniability and all...
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Makes sense. In line with your last sentence, I think if the FTC does decide to go further up the food chain, the ad networks themselves would be a much easier target.
 
There are quite a few predictions I agree with in here. I'll add a couple niches that will do well.

1. Stand alone streaming services from studios. With HBO GO and CBS All Access(Showtime) being the first to break from providers, a shitload of others are scurrying to create their own. Affiliates for Netflix, Hulu and Prime are about to have a lot more programs to cash in on.

2. Cash only/direct-pay medicine lead gen is getting bigger. More doctors are opting for concierge style practices over this clusterfuck of a healthcare overhaul. Yay government.

3. With 50 Shades of Grey releasing this week, the sex toy(especially bdsm) business will do really well the rest of the year. If you sell ball gags and shit, I sure hoped you stocked up.

Did I miss any obvious ones?
 
Mises said:
There are quite a few predictions I agree with in here. I'll add a couple niches that will do well.

1. Stand alone streaming services from studios. With HBO GO and CBS All Access(Showtime) being the first to break from providers, a shitload of others are scurrying to create their own. Affiliates for Netflix, Hulu and Prime are about to have a lot more programs to cash in on.

2. Cash only/direct-pay medicine lead gen is getting bigger. More doctors are opting for concierge style practices over this clusterfuck of a healthcare overhaul. Yay government.

3. With 50 Shades of Grey releasing this week, the sex toy(especially bdsm) business will do really well the rest of the year. If you sell ball gags and shit, I sure hoped you stocked up.

Did I miss any obvious ones?
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Agree with everything here.

1 - I also see people buying these G-boxes and what not, or jailbreaking their Apple TV boxes ect. I just bought one from a guy who custom programmed his own box/interface. I can get everything on it, and I mean everything. I canceled all but my basic cable, and Internet. I know this is old news for the more tech savvy people out there, but making it plug and play, is a game changer (at least until it starts cutting into big cable's margins). I see it eating into the market slowly and from what I've read, there is a grey area with streaming as long as you aren't downloading. We'll see.

2 - Couldn't come fast enough. Nothing like paying $1,000 a month for a family of 4 and basically nothing is paid for. Shit is totally out of control. Same plan I paid for 2 years ago for $600 a month with better coverage.

I do like how sites are popping up like Prices, Coupons and Information - GoodRx. Doing national TV ads, which is good, because it educates people to the fact that you can shop around and don't have to go to the same pharmacy all the time.

3 - My wife went to a sex party last night and spent $300. I feel you on this one.
 
I predict the hottest selling item in 2015 will be the selfie toaster.

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