Trump for US President?

potentialeight said:
lol his dirty laundry
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Yes, his "dirty laundry".

People love to preach that Trump is strong, will put Americans first, he will make America great again somehow, and blah, blah.

Just wait to see what happens over the next few months when the general election kicks into gear, and Trump's hiring of illegal immigrants, and forcefully pushing people out of their houses for property deals, and so on... begins getting headlined on the main news networks.
 


Jumangi said:
Yes, his "dirty laundry".

People love to preach that Trump is strong, will put Americans first, he will make America great again somehow, and blah, blah.

Just wait to see what happens over the next few months when the general election kicks into gear, and Trump's hiring of illegal immigrants, and forcefully pushing people out of their houses for property deals, and so on... begins getting headlined on the main news networks.
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"begins", lulz... because that hasn't happened yet at all. just wait until CNN and MSNBC find out trump is a candidate, oh lawsy.
 
jryan21 said:
Do you believe he is really going to build a 1500 mile wall across the US-Mexico border, and also ban all Muslims from entering the US? Because his people are out there now saying he was just bullshitting about that. What do you think his supporters are going to do when he starts walking back all the stuff that attracted them in the first place?

He is now taking 100 million from Sheldon Adelson, and having $25,000 a plate fundraisers, after months of promising he won't take money from special interest groups and lobbyists.
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Just wondering if you think any of this is relevant to the enormous advantage he has over Hillary?

It's a game, and he has a tremendous short-term and long-term advantage. His lead is only going to continue to grow pretty much no matter what he does.

On a point of accuracy, he hasn't taken money from Adelson. Adelson has only come out saying he would be willing to give it.
 
potentialeight said:
Just wondering if you think any of this is relevant to the enormous advantage he has over Hillary?

It's a game, and he has a tremendous short-term and long-term advantage. His lead is only going to continue to grow pretty much no matter what he does.

On a point of accuracy, he hasn't taken money from Adelson. Adelson has only come out saying he would be willing to give it.
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He'll give that $100M, the RNC only has around $30M on hand, they need to raise $1B for the general election. Trump had literally 0 infrastructure 2 weeks ago, and they pissed the grassroots off again, so they are way behind in volunteer support. The Democrats are already built out, they will get every single voter out to the polls in November.

Trump is trying to sell people on the myth that he's bringing in all these new people to the GOP, voter data shows this is not the case, because the people who were poling as "new voters" were actually registered GOP who didn't vote last cycle.

What advantages do you believe Trump has? The same primary polls a lot of us ignored showing Trump with a massive lead are now showing him getting crushed by Clinton in almost every demographic except old white people. Clinton was going to be a tough sell, because she's not a good candidate, and not popular at all. The GOP have somehow managed to nominate the only opponent who is even less popular, in fact he's the most unpopular ever (with the exception to David Duke, who is not shown here):

SqWEIUw.png
 
^^ and this is without even going into the challenges he will have on the electoral map. He would need to win all the Romney states, plus PA, VA, OH, FL and probably NV.
 
However, the massive unpopularity of both candidates is opening up demand for a viable 3rd party, and the LP convention is happening now. They've been polling Gary Johnson the last week or 3:

NlLi2sj.png


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I think they need 15% to get into the general election debates.
 
Other LP candidates include Austin Petersen (former producer for Judge Nap) and John McAfee:

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAjl-Gibm8c[/ame]

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-87e5wKGgFU[/ame]
 
jryan21 said:
He'll give that $100M, the RNC only has around $30M on hand, they need to raise $1B for the general election. Trump had literally 0 infrastructure 2 weeks ago, and they pissed the grassroots off again, so they are way behind in volunteer support. The Democrats are already built out, they will get every single voter out to the polls in November.

Trump is trying to sell people on the myth that he's bringing in all these new people to the GOP, voter data shows this is not the case, because the people who were poling as "new voters" were actually registered GOP who didn't vote last cycle.

What advantages do you believe Trump has? The same primary polls a lot of us ignored showing Trump with a massive lead are now showing him getting crushed by Clinton in almost every demographic except old white people. Clinton was going to be a tough sell, because she's not a good candidate, and not popular at all. The GOP have somehow managed to nominate the only opponent who is even less popular, in fact he's the most unpopular ever (with the exception to David Duke, who is not shown here):

SqWEIUw.png
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the dukakis point wrecks the graph.
 
jryan21 said:
He'll give that $100M, the RNC only has around $30M on hand, they need to raise $1B for the general election. Trump had literally 0 infrastructure 2 weeks ago, and they pissed the grassroots off again, so they are way behind in volunteer support. The Democrats are already built out, they will get every single voter out to the polls in November.

Trump is trying to sell people on the myth that he's bringing in all these new people to the GOP, voter data shows this is not the case, because the people who were poling as "new voters" were actually registered GOP who didn't vote last cycle.

What advantages do you believe Trump has? The same primary polls a lot of us ignored showing Trump with a massive lead are now showing him getting crushed by Clinton in almost every demographic except old white people. Clinton was going to be a tough sell, because she's not a good candidate, and not popular at all. The GOP have somehow managed to nominate the only opponent who is even less popular, in fact he's the most unpopular ever (with the exception to David Duke, who is not shown here):

SqWEIUw.png
Click to expand...

lol yeah ok, you do you feel the burn lol
 
jstover77 said:
Trump is a clown. No way he wins GOP nomination.
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[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfqVih7IFlI[/ame]

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The inevitable Trump landslide continues to rumble into view.

The only ones who talk about his 'negatives' are Democrats who fear his candidacy. The fact is, Hillary's negatives are baked in and will only get worse. Trump will only grow more popular - remember his 30% ceiling in the GOP race, how it went to 40% - now it's his party.

Democrats who think Trump won't grab wide swaths of black/hispanic votes are in for a rude shock. And what's truly glorious is that Hillary is now attempting to out-Trump the Donald. Holy shit, I love it.
 
infoslob said:
Flashback: Bill Maher and Panel Laugh at Ann Coulter for Saying Trump Would Win GOP Nomination - YouTube

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The inevitable Trump landslide continues to rumble into view.

The only ones who talk about his 'negatives' are Democrats who fear his candidacy. The fact is, Hillary's negatives are baked in and will only get worse. Trump will only grow more popular - remember his 30% ceiling in the GOP race, how it went to 40% - now it's his party.

Democrats who think Trump won't grab wide swaths of black/hispanic votes are in for a rude shock. And what's truly glorious is that Hillary is now attempting to out-Trump the Donald. Holy shit, I love it.
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The ones saying Trump can't win are the ones who are watching the polling. The numbers aren't showing anything like that yet, though it's possible that may change, especially when people see who else are on the tickets. What they do show is Trump has gotten 85% of the GOP partisans and still can't maintain a lead against a weak candidate who is still in an active primary.

Trump is still struggling with minority voters. Here's what it looked like with latino voters in April:

ARxDixP.jpg



His polling with women is still shit:
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If he goes with his base of low educated older white males, he needs something like 90% turnout to be competitive.

Aside from those issues, winning all the safe GOP states and all the swing states won't win him the election. He also needs to take blue states like PA, NV, from Clinton, and hold the otherwise traditional GOP states like UT and MS where he's barely breaking the margin of error.


Note that I think all these candidates are shit, and won't be voting for any of them. I just like wading through the shit to look for ways to profit.
 
bluechinagroup said:
Who are you using now that Intrade is gone to try to profit from the election? Thanks!
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I've been doing a case study where I make trades on PredictIt and I log all positions I take and why they are +EV positions. You are capped at $850/race, but especially during the primaries you could take positions on all of the states the day of the election and come out up thousands of dollars in a couple hours with a consistent edge.
 
Trump beat 16 competitors when everyone thought he was a joke. Look who's laughing now. He hasn't even started going after Hillary.

Scott Adams of Dilbert fame says that Trump is a master persuader. He doesn't support Trump, Hillary or Bernie but has some good insight:

Scott Adams Blog
 
Trump consistently led in the primary polls, most of us thought they were wrong:

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The same polls show him consistently losing in the general election:

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