You're pretty keen but you left out three important issues to affect this plan:
1. Gary Johnson. -Every bit the popular libertarian that RP is; just running on the libertarian ticket this year. He's been Governor before so likely he can run for the big office in 4 years with lots of experience under his belt.
2. Rand doesn't have much experience yet. Ron's 30+ year voting record gives instant credibility to him that he will continue to vote against the status quo once elected... Rand won't have that in 4 or even 8 more years. Perhaps in 12 if will look impressive enough, but by then I expect this country to be in rubble or worse.
3. Dr. Paul would NEVER want Obama to win, because everyone (but the libs) knows that Obama is going to do far more evil things in his second term without having to worry about his popularity anymore. To say it's RP's plan for Obama to be elected is tantamount to saying it's RP's plan for america to go into the greatest depression yet with hyperinflation and WWIII at the same time.
I do agree that RP won't win and knows it though. His speeches after each primary clearly state that he's just proud of the momentum the Cause is getting.
...I just doubt that this momentum has any chance whatsoever of affecting change before some catastrophic crash.