assume that the entire world sees internet penetration reach us penetration levels (i.e. just under 80%)
then, assume that global FB penetration reaches US FB penetration levels ) i.e. just under 70%)
those two assumptions get you to 3 billion potential facebook subs (ex China)
then, make a final assumption that those 3 billion subs generate as much advertising revenue per year as US facebook users do today (i.e. just over $9) and you get to roughly $27 billion in revenues.
At that size, GOOG was on 5.4x Sales - i.e. FB would be worth $145 billion (providing, that is, that FB ahs the same margin and growth outlook then taht GOOG did back in FY09)
starting with a $100 billion valuation today, do you honestly think that getting to $145 billion 6,7 or even 8 years down the road is worth the risk?? if your answer is "yes", then congratulations, you thinkn getting roughly 7-8% per annum is enough to justify the risk of holding on to a company whose future is unknwon at best for many years. from where i stand, risk and reward are monstruously skewed against me.
i prefer waiting for $20-25 where i could conceivably get double digit IRR for my troubles.
