THE Bitcoin Speculation Thread

bobsoap

bobsoap

Together we can do anyone
Sep 16, 2008
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Ok, let's try to consolidate all the recent bitcoin craze into a single thread. I think it would be good to have a single, main outlet where those who are genuinely interested in bitcoin can discuss and speculate, vs. 536 different threads. This should keep everyone here sane and those who don't care about bitcoin will hopefully appreciate that it's contained to one thread as well. Everybody wins :)

I'm not an expert at bitcoin or trading (yet). Actually, I did mine my first 0.1 btc back in 2011. It took me a week to mine $2.68 before I promptly uninstalled the miner and forgot about it... until last month, when I got interested in speculation and trading. I'm slowly getting addicted to candlestick charts. I think it started around the same time that LukeP rejoined WF. Thanks a lot, Luke <3

Needless to say, I'm hooked.

I'm learning new stuff every day and I aspire to learn a lot more going forward. I always welcome a healthy debate and an inspiring exchange of ideas... and I know I'm not the only one, hence this thread.

I'll start by sharing an observation I made regarding the different exchanges, and my take on the differences and how I use them. I haven't spent a whole lot of time with all of this yet, please keep that in mind, so it would be great to get some experienced voices in here to either confirm or dismiss this. In any case, take it with a grain of salt.

I currently use BitcoinWisdom - Live Bitcoin/Litecoin charts for charts... hat tip to Loco Luke for the hint!

MtGox

Out of the three major (USD) bitcoin exchanges - MtGox, Bitstamp, and BTC-e - I don't use MtGox at all because that seems to be the general consensus. People say it's virtually impossible to get your fiat out of there, so I'm not touching it. I do, however, look at it occasionally, because it seems to always have the highest price and volume. I'm currently still trying to find out if I can use it as a general indicator/trend setter for the other exchanges, because everyone seems to be looking at it all the time.

BTC-e

The next exchange I pay attention to is btce. It's Russian and from what I've seen so far, it's extremely volatile compared to others... except MtGox, probably. btce seems to like the hype a lot and as a result, the price is all over the place.

This could be fueled by the fact that btce has a live chat and a mini-chart right on their trading page. It's right there in front of you all the time (I don't use it though). People in the chat are constantly yelling BUY BUY BUY or SELL SELL SELL... and the sheeple follow.

Last night (Nov 18), for example, btce was at an all-time high of $823... for a total of 1 minute at most, before it dropped to $551 within the next 20 minutes or so. And just this morning, it went down to $375 with a close of $466. All this happened within a few hours.

cm33Grf.jpg


Bitstamp

The third exchange I use is Bitstamp. Compared to btce, Bitstamp seems to be a whole lot more laid back. Prices are usually in-between btce and MtGox. Momentums appear to last longer than on btce and it usually seems to trail behind btce a bit trend-wise. It's still volatile (especially at the moment), but I believe the people there are not as trigger-happy as on btce. Or maybe I should say they appear to be more strategic than on btce?

Compared to btce, Bitstamp is an oasis of zen with their lack of charts and the soothing clean & green UI.

Now this is assuming the majority of traders on these platforms are actually using the web UI and not some bot or software.

To sum this up:
- MtGox seems to be a trendsetter that is referenced a lot elsewhere and followed by others. By observing MtGox, it may be possible to get a head start for short-term trends.
- btce is like a war zone where the armies are made up of menstruating young girls.
- Bitstamp is like a cool back yard where the guys have a bbq going and chillax most of the time... but they got a TV on and are quick to come running out to the porch when need be. They just have a slightly longer reaction time, because burgers.

Can anyone confirm these observations or are they way off?
 


bobsoap said:
- MtGox seems to be a trendsetter that is referenced a lot elsewhere and followed by others. By observing MtGox, it may be possible to get a head start for short-term trends.
- btce is like a war zone where the armies are made up of menstruating young girls.
- Bitstamp is like a cool back yard where the guys have a bbq going and chillax most of the time... but they got a TV on and are quick to come running out to the porch when need be. They just have a slightly longer reaction time, because burgers.

Can anyone confirm these observations or are they way off?
Click to expand...

MtGox is completely useless at this point seeing as they're blacklisted from 99% (maybe 100 now) of US banks.

BTC-e doesn't accept large wires from the US.

Bitstamp looks alright, I signed up a couple days ago and am waiting for my account to be verified and it seems like they don't have much customer service. Also, their site is down right now.
 
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This is lame.
 
Had a good laugh now when I was trying to make some profits during the wild price fluctuations and bitstamp wouldn't let me put my orders through. Still... those that went through were okay

I wonder what the next couple of days have in store for us. I'm thinking it might settle around $700
 
o hai guyz said:
Bitstamp looks alright, I signed up a couple days ago and am waiting for my account to be verified and it seems like they don't have much customer service. Also, their site is down right now.
Click to expand...

The limited experience I've had with bitstamp has been good. My first bank wire to them cleared within 2 days, after me verifying my account with a scan of my id and a utility bill. They've been down on and off today for me... I guess they are coping with a huge amount of volume like the other exchanges are atm. I sent another wire earlier to them that I expect to arrive tomorrow, hopefully.
 
wayn3 said:
Its more expensive to trade out of mtgox than it would be worth to take the arbitrage out.
Click to expand...

I haven't done any kind of math regarding mtgox yet, simply because I only consider it a trendsetter, at most, at the moment. I'm not using them for anything.

For example, if you look at their price right now: $650, vs. $552 on btce - that's $100 difference, or 15%. You could buy on btce, transfer it over to mtgox, and sell right away, and you'd still be ahead after the fees. Am I overlooking something?

I haven't done this kind of arbitrage yet, nor do I plan to deal with mtgox in the future. Just curious what your take on it is.
 
bobsoap said:
For example, if you look at their price right now: $650, vs. $552 on btce - that's $100 difference, or 15%. You could buy on btce, transfer it over to mtgox, and sell right away, and you'd still be ahead after the fees. Am I overlooking something?

I haven't done this kind of arbitrage yet, nor do I plan to deal with mtgox in the future. Just curious what your take on it is.
Click to expand...

You're overlooking the fact that Mt Gox won't allow you to withdraw your USD after selling. The norm for Gox was requiring a 4-6 month waiting period before issuing the transfers, however now that all the banks have blacklisted them I'm not sure if you would ever receive your money at all unless you want to move to Japan.

The only way it would work is if Gox allowed you to send USD from your Gox account directly back to BTC-e, which they don't.
 
JoseArmando said:
Had a good laugh now when I was trying to make some profits during the wild price fluctuations and bitstamp wouldn't let me put my orders through. Still... those that went through were okay

I wonder what the next couple of days have in store for us. I'm thinking it might settle around $700
Click to expand...

I'm not sure if it will "settle" for the next 30 days. My insight is limited but right now, I suspect it will continue to rally at least until before xmas. I'm enjoying the ride... trying not to let it get the best of me, but to let it rest for a while. That's hard to do. Fun fun
 
Gonna neg every fucktard that decides to write a "Consolidation" thread on this that's not a mod. Ain't gonna mean a thing, but it'll amuse me.

Bobsoap, you pathetic penis-pounder, why not just post in one of the other umpteen bitchcorn threads? No... You create a NEW one to "Consolidate".

NegNegNeggityNeg, motherfucker.
 
LOL Galcon; bob was at least trying to consolidate... I yearn to see a thousand bitcoin threads bloom!

COME AT ME BRO! ;)


Yes bob, your observations are pretty close to the mark, and yes the current state of exchanges is pathetic. Never been so jealous of the chinese before. :(

That reminds me; ALWAYS watch btcchina's price and volume. When the volume is up like it's been for the last few weeks, it dictates the direction the price moves on all other boards. It may just stay like that forever in fact, they've got something like 1.5 billion people there and over 700 Million of them were exposed to QQ Coin a decade ago, so they're far more accepting of bitcoin as a culture. (Not to mention China seems to love the idea of bitcoin replacing the USD as the world reserve currency.)

I haven't successfully pulled off any arbitrage yet, despite the widening gap between exchanges. I tried with Gox just before that became a clusterfuck and just decided it's not that fun anyway.

When we get a distributed exchange, likely next year, then the whole world will be able to arbitrage these exchanges and use its' distributed order book to make some real coin. That will be a day we should celebrate. And yes, there are several projects going on right now to create such an exchange, and even to issue (illegal but untraceable) crypto-USD in them, so your dads can all buy their first bitcoins on one with his crappy fiat dollars.


Mah preedictshun:

I have no clue where the bottom is this time; we may be at it now around $600. It may go further down, as low as $350-$400, but I doesn't look as likely now. This time there is simply far more demand. Thanks China.

If you look at the time between these bubbles/surges, they are speeding up... So since it was 7 months since the last bubble, I would expect another in 4-6 months... And another in 3-5 months after that and so on until bitcoin has been fully adopted as a global currency that everyone has access to, and we've run out of industries like Remittance and personal credit to assimilate.

At that point a bitcoin will easily be worth an amount that you feel uncomfortable thinking about. It just math though; displacement and numbers. Eventually even galacon & wayn3 will have to accept it... Both literally and figuratively.
 
You WOUND me Bro.

I have nothing against the free and equitable dissemination of info on buttcoin- believe it or not, I even hold some myself from back when the fuckers were single digits. But a thousand threads? Can we not find a bitcoin forum to do that on?

What irks me is the fucking bandwagonism, duplication, and clutter- Bobsters thread was uneccessary- your 7K Magnum Odius slutcoin thread would have been a perfectly acceptable place to dump his "seasoned" musings. Consolidate there.

But no, he had to have the spotlight...last night...so much fun to be around.

You feel me, bro?
 
lukep said:
If you look at the time between these bubbles/surges, they are speeding up... So since it was 7 months since the last bubble, I would expect another in 4-6 months... And another in 3-5 months after that and so on until bitcoin has been fully adopted as a global currency that everyone has access to, and we've run out of industries like Remittance and personal credit to assimilate.
Click to expand...

IMO if you're investing in it for any extended time period (rather than just daytrading), waiting for these crashes and bubble pops is useless. It's trading at 550 now, either you can stock up on it at 550, or you can wait for it to go to 900 and then "crash" down to 400. In the big scheme of things, the difference is miniscule and irrelevant. I'd rather just buy it up now and sit on it instead of sitting watching the charts 24/7 so I can buy in at a few dollars cheaper. Just my opinion.
 
galacon said:
What irks me is the fucking bandwagonism, duplication, and clutter...

You feel me, bro?
Click to expand...
Well it was a bit more clutter than I've ever seen before on a single topic... Manias gonna mania and all that.

Alright; I won't try to push for more threads: Hopefully we'll see it quiet down to 1 or 2 at any given time.
 
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