Alright I'll just dismantle your whole argument real quick then.
Bloggers making $450/year from Adsense can now live on that?
Argument still solid. I'm not talking about fools; I'm speaking of people like myself who have a few marbles but didn't have a way out of their dead-end careers. Smart people that didn't have a chance to step up before. The Proletariat of the 21st century.
Google helped me step up and out of that position; not an investment, not a boss, not a long period of hard work, just google, my websites and an internet connection.
...your entire argument is invalid because there are very few people making a decent living from Adsense alone, and the ones that are, don't fit your description of being these peasants without any skills. They are good content producers, skilled webmasters or coders, or just all-around good business people/marketers. These people aren't making money because of Adsense, they are making money because they have skills. All of these people you seem to think have been empowered aren't making dick with Adsense because solely earning from Adsense is probably the shittiest business model online.
Even if I was loosening my description to people not so much like myself, People with skills; the fact is their skills were misdirected and if they used them for anyone other than a BOSS they would be out on the street in no time.
Anyway, my earlier point covers this argument better; "Weather or not we have any capable people is totally beside the point... The fact is that (google is) signing the checks and no one else before ever DARED to do that!"
So you just aren't seeing the bigger picture here. Google DID something (as in past tense) that changed the world. They started a trend and that trend is growing. Now there are many networks that will pay you well for ad space on your blog. This trend will grow. It certainly is inside facebook.
Eventually we're talking about a large percentage of the population, I'd say roughly equivalent to the number of people (worldwide) that work for ad agencies today, who make their primary living by selling ad space online.
So stop talking about the blogger who makes $450/year from Adsense... My standards are a bit higher than that and you sound naive enough to not believe it's possible to be successful at adsense to people like me.
How many people that otherwise would not be earning a living online do you really think have quit their jobs and are now earning a comfortable living online?
I have accepted that a vast majority of people, (evidence: Facebook) do not wish to better themselves enough to actually earn a living online. They believe that working at a J.O.B. is "normal" and "safe" and sadly they don't find out until much later that there is actually a reason to earn a living online.
If this 'blinders-on" phenomenon did not exist, and people actually had the will to learn how to really earn a living online, then Adsense can allow them to do it very, very quickly.
Until recently there was nothing at all to do that. Nada. In all of human frickin' history.
This is my main point. Now you can, Before you could not.
Even if I'm the only person on earth who has, It exists. Now.
How many people really? A few hundred? Maybe a couple thousand? That's not quite "changing the world".
I say it is.
Let's say that today, in January of 2011, it is only 300 people. Three effects will ensure that this number grows quickly:
1. (Copycats) Adsense already has Copycat competitors. I make more money with one of those copycats than I do with adsense so the growth rate of this is obviously going up and would not die tomorrow if Facebook bought out google and shut adsense down or something like that.
2. (On Ramp) Adsense is the easy way to get money fast, but once you've got a little, as I'm sure you know, you want more monetizers on your site and learn about things like CJ, CPA forms, revshare, etc. Adsense is a stepping stone to more ways to be successful, while paying your bills in the meantime. (Which allows ppl the time away from a J.O.B. in order to be a success.)
3. (Time & tech adoptation) Adsense is a first-gen solution. Imagine when someone does it better. (Like the upcoming Open Graph might.) Or Imagine if two adsense farmers marry and raise little adsense farming children who are already financially secure by age 17.
Over time:
The people will multiply, & they talk to their friends about it.
The Tech will multiply, it could get more easy to be successful at.
The availability will multiply, as more countries get online all the time and internet adoption is currently exploding.
So, by 2016, say, I'd put that number in the realm of 10,000 or more people, and by 2025, it could be that EVERYONE who isn't a retard and prefers a J.O.B. will make some money online and only those who enjoy doing so will choose to spend their entire career doing it.
We'll certainly have more choices by then. Either way, the world will have changed. Much.
And Google started it all. -At least give them that much, despite any evil things they did to your private life.