You've been warned
- Thread starter acidie
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He's a decent article a friend sent me, regarding close to the same thing.
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Apparently posts can't be over 10,000 characters, so here's a link instead:
http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/150614_TFTF.pdf
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Apparently posts can't be over 10,000 characters, so here's a link instead:
http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/150614_TFTF.pdf
Yes China is a true emerging juggernaut, but do not count the magicians in the west out of the equation totally.
They have enormous issues to deal with on both the political and monetary front. The west is still better at instituting long term control plans.
My Prediction:
China will eventually break-up like Russia did. They took control of many small countries right after world war 2.
You cannot equate prosperity with lack of personal freedom. When people become prosperous, they will eventually demand more freedom.
All the technology stuff is still controlled by the west, and I doubt if China will ever catch up in that department.
The real battle for China is in the next generation. Most are western oriented in their thinking.
They have enormous issues to deal with on both the political and monetary front. The west is still better at instituting long term control plans.
My Prediction:
China will eventually break-up like Russia did. They took control of many small countries right after world war 2.
You cannot equate prosperity with lack of personal freedom. When people become prosperous, they will eventually demand more freedom.
All the technology stuff is still controlled by the west, and I doubt if China will ever catch up in that department.
The real battle for China is in the next generation. Most are western oriented in their thinking.
China is emerging, but too aggressive. They want to claim all nearby land which violated the international rules, they will do anything they can to bully the poor countries. That's their way to improve their economy. Just saying 
Just my perspective!
Just my perspective!
China is emerging, but too aggressive. They want to claim all nearby land which violated the international rules, they will do anything they can to bully the poor countries. That's their way to improve their economy. Just saying
You are right, but you watch with Westerner's eyes. To understand China you should be Chinese, and my opinion can be wrong too, but my friend, who studied for 2 years in Beijing business college and made very important acquaintances there (which allowed him to build an empire of workwear-producing companies across half of the Europe, with raw materials coming from China) - my friend told me 2 main rules of Chinese mindset.
1) China is the center of the world
2) Times flow like water, borders change, empires emerge and die, but in the end - China will prevail, no matter how long it takes.
Western cultures make PERSONAL achievements of a lifespan important. You have 80-100 years at max and you HAVE TO DO SOMETHING BIG to be remembered. Chinese think in centuries and their dream is to see China prosperous, not themselves. This is why communism, that dictates "common over personal" is the perfect ideology for them.
China lost a huge chunk of soil to Russian emperors back in the 19th century. Since then, all their military doctrines included the point "to restore the boundaries of old". However, China met 20th century as a poor country with outdated agriclutural and technical technology, nearly absent heavy industry, railroads, etc. What di they do? They acccepted Soviet help and ideology, which allowed them to BORROW TOP-NOTCH TECHNOLOGY and make a huge jump over technological gap.
I will not tell the full story of China through the 20th century - WIkipedia is at your disposal.
The main points are:
1) China will have all it wants. With trade, preferably. With intimidation, if needed. With brute force, if necessary.
2) Chinese people do not live in such a hurry as we do. They are grateful to live IN China and FOR China.
3) Syberia will be Chinese. It may take 5 years, or 20, or 50 - China is patient, like a dragon. And fearsome, like one.
They do not have to "bully the poor countries". They just show them that living like China and IN China is better for them.
Just to illustrate my words - here is a LONG ARTICLE with LOTS OF PICTURES, so you'd better have UNLIMITED TRAFFIC.
It is in Russian, so ready your Google translator or any other tool of choice.
Chinese Growth (Nolfen)
Regardless of their long term view, the present reality cannot be ignored totally. They have so much potential, but the challenges are full of land mines to say the least.
They will never get Siberia, not in a million years. The Russians are just as patient and patriotic. Apart from that, Siberia has too many natural resources for that to happen.
Will China ever catch up in the military dept, I have my doubts. Will they ever catch up in the intellectual property dept, I have my doubts about that also.
Simply copying technology from the west is not the mark of a leader.
I had Chinese classmates, and they're good at root learning but find it hard to grasp the larger picture of things.
A controlled society has some advantages, but the limitations inhibit creativity and broad learning.
Wait till the new generation start having sex like mad and having more than one kid. That policy of one child per family is idiotic and will soon collapse.
Can the one party rule survive for long, not if they continue to adopt western ways. The coming clash will be between the new and old generation. Will they be able to kill like they did in Tiananmen Square without consequences? Probably not.
Look at all the problems they have in Hong Kong. Taiwan will never join mainland China, maybe as a loose union for economic benefits but not as one country.
The west is carefully positioned to influence the new generation, and old leaders are probably not aware of it. Censoring the internet will not help or prevent the newly born kids from learning about stuff.
Give me America any-day, because at least I have an idea of the rules. In China they make it up as they go.
Did I say that skies are clear above China? They have quite a lot of challenges - like the ones depicted by you and many other issues, including ecology. We will live to see the way they deal with these.
As for Siberia... Do you know of ToRP's? Territories of Rapid Progress? This law was signed by Putin in December last year, exactly the day when Russian rouble fell from 60/1 USD to 90/1 USD. As soon as he signed the law, China bought $180 billion equivalent of Russian roubles for Yuan's, which stopped the fall and created a pool for mutual trade between Russia and China in rubles and yuans, which was declared this year.
The Act of ToRPs actually gives China a huge chunk of Siberia in rent for 49 years (we all know this means "forever"). Without war. Without huge ado in world press. And even without any surprise for local population.
Because local population IS ALREADY CHINESE. My Russian friends told me a sad joke: "Chinese liked the recent Act of ToRPs so much that they live on these lands for a decade already". They have their cities where Russians are not allowed and no patriotic Ivan does anything.
Future expansion will be the same. Quiet and secret, and nobody will do nothing.
As for the topic - Xiaomi is already the world's 3rd largest brand of portable devices and they are aimed at leadership. The next billion of Internet users will come from Asia (China mostly), but they will spend their money IN CHINA and on Chinese goods\products\services, so I would not expect a huge new market for Westerners.
And that is the point, there is nothing stopping people from getting in the middle of that, Chinese or Westerner.
I have no doubt that some of the economic power is shifting to the far east which includes China and Russia.
The financial help from China to Russia was to be expected as they buy most of their weapons from Russia.
As far as Xiaomi goes, careful look at the designers will prove western help at each angle.
China is good at copying, but lack the innovation techniques due to the root learning system in their educational system.
Even the effort to send their brightest students to western universities will not give them creativity techniques.
Yes they will become very rich and also very poor. The segment of the population with true wealth will be enormous, so will be the segment with object poverty.
All the talk about China dominating the world like the USA, is just bluff. America has so many weapons systems, not to talk about weather manipulation systems that can be weaponized.
The brightest minds are in the west, and that my friend will not change as far as I can see.
Just two issues will keep them busy internally for many generations: massive corruption and one party rule.
Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Actually anyone who actually lives near China will tell you that the mainland Chinese economy is in trouble and could very well run out of steam soon.
Also what HostZealot described as Chinese thinking is not all that correct. That's what they want foreigners to think Chinese are like though. Mainlanders in the middle class and up definitely have personal ambitions, and they're not about the collective; they're about what's the best for them and their family. If people really were all about the nation rather than themselves, there wouldn't be such a huge corruption problem in China. It does seem like a lot of mainlanders think China is the center of the universe, but the same can be said about other large nations. And of course China in Chinese means Zhōngguó or "center country".
But I agree that they're not quite as independent minded as Hong Kongers or westerners. They're also without a doubt brainwashed by government propaganda since the flow of information is quite heavily controlled.
Hong Kongers on the other hand are extremely independent thinking. Hong Kongers look down on mainlanders, and they guard their freedoms jealously. Hong Kong people will hit the streets and protest at a drop of a hat. Hong Kong is a great example of a free Chinese society as opposed to an authoritarian one.
Richcookies is also right on the money with his post.
That's exactly what Uber does, hopefully other market players will also succeed, but Chinese market is tough.
I absolutely agree with you, because my friend also saw only what he was supposed to see and spoke only with those he was supposed to speak. The ideas I described are communist propaganda, of course. And there is a huge in numbers middle class in China, which will erupt against one party system at some point.
As for corruption - they have executed 10 000 corruptioners ... but they cannot change human nature.
I also agree to some point that they lack creativity, but that is the core - creativity allows achieving tremendous results RIGHT NOW. While Chinese culture values listening to elderly, obeing their orders and being disciplined above all, which naturally kills creativity.
I would not say they only copy - they have many unique projects in art, architecture and many other areas - just slide through the article I gave above, some of their scyscrapers look more like a flower than a building.
Their weaponry is built upon Soviet and Russian designs, yes, but when US ballistic weaponry will be replaced with lasers and railguns - China will also have these. Copied or self-developed - doesn't matter.
As for war with USA - Chinese leaders are not so foolish. They expand without wars and they will never wage war with the USA - they only increase economical co-operation.
That did not stop them from occupying Tibetan plateu.
That did not stop them from beginning cultural and economical expansion to Tajikistan - Tajikistan to Lease 6,000 Hectares of Land to China | The Jamestown Foundation
Chinese government gave $20 billion loan to Tajikistan15 years prior and as corruption did not allow to use these funds for reforms, they were spent without any good result. Then Chinese government requested Tajikistan to lend them several mountainous districts to pay the debts
PressTV-
When Tajiks asked Chinese "Why do you need those rocks, you cannot even breed sheep there?" Chinese answered - "we will build railroads and mines and will mine gold, platinum, wolfram and gas. And you can breed your sheep elsewhere" - sorry can't find the source, but it was somewhere in local media.
This is how they act. Not like an tiger, which crushes enemies FAST, in fierce fight. They act like a boa constrictor, that strangles SLOWLY and devours later.
This exact actions I mentioned before - Russia just lended China huge chunk of soil in Siberia for 49 years and I doubt in 49 years there will be even one Russian left there, so it is actually China now.
China has many challenges - but I doubt it will ever challenge the USA. They have a lot of land around them to consume by powerful cultural and economical domination, without the need to wage wars. That is what I mean by "thinking for centuries".
I saw a photo of Chinese official newspaper, devoted to APEC 2014 forum, where USA and China signed a lot of new treaties and Russia was kicked into the dirt - at least that is what Western media told.
The photo depicted Xi Jingping wearing Emperor's robes, sitting in a Dragon palace and pouring chrism to the hands of world leaders, who were crawling beneath him. He was big and they were small, and even while Obama was first and Putin was last - it does not change the whole picture, which their propaganda tells - China will teach the world to live Chinese way and will rule the world, no matter how long it takes.
I agree with Acidie, this is really a wide step off the initial topic
as for the topic - the next billion Internet users will definitely be from Asia, so think of bright ideas right now - there will be huge opportunities soon.
Isn't this the same idea that is taught in elite US/UK schools? (about US or UK)
I think this guy's predictions are not going to get real. US is already pushing strong in Europe to press that big red reset button on world population (and its own debts), especially China population and business relations. Forget Russia... they don't count in that matter. Russia is usable only because they have nukes, that's the only role they have been given in this circus for now.
2050? I wish we can see it. But if things will continue to go as they are right now in eastern Europe, well I think many of us won't.