How would a Tech Bubble effect IM?

Gambit

Gambit

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Nov 21, 2011
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So there's obviously been some talks about there being another tech bubble after Facebook's large valuation, Groupon basically imploding, and startups like Color getting $40 million in funding before it even started working on their app.

I think the whole bubble idea has been discussed in here quite a few times so let's move past that and assume there is a bubble similar to 1999.

If a bubble were to happen in Tech Startups, how do you think that would effect IM?

A couple things I could see happening:
-CPCs on many ad networks would likely drop. Some companies (like AirBnB) are spending over $1 million a month on online advertising. If these tech companies stop getting funding, that would likely lead to a drop in advertising demand. Advertising is growing with offline businesses, but not nearly at the same rate as tech companies
- Adsense earnings could drop significantly. For the same reasons as described above.


Anyone have any thoughts about how a Tech bubble would affect IM? Would the industry be hurt by another bubble?

Also, since I am pretty new to the game, if anyone was around in IM way back in 1999, care to shed some light on how it effected the industry?
 


JCash said:
The real bubble bursts when everybody who has mesothelioma dies.
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I didn't want to bring that up and make this thread too much of a downer. Let alone how honey bee deaths are leading to a decrease in acai berry production.
 
People with a solid business plan will do well while those without one will suffer?

I'd guess it will be very similar to now, expect with less big money distorting things?
 
Everywhere I go I hear people talking about how we are in a tech bubble. That means we are not in a tech bubble. It's only a bubble if nobody thinks we're in a bubble.
 
cardine said:
Everywhere I go I hear people talking about how we are in a tech bubble. That means we are not in a tech bubble. It's only a bubble if nobody thinks we're in a bubble.
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Good point. Most of these companies actually have monetization strategies as compared to 1999. I can definitely see both sides of the argument.

But then I see posts like these saying that investors are tripping over each other to get startups to take their $7+ million:
Did everybody see what just happened? The pendulum has swung. - Find Office Space - 42Floors
 
More money in IM for sure.

Regardless of the state of a stock market bubble, money is going to keep flowing online as this is the most entrepreneurial part of any economy and has the most frontier left to discover (in a sense, infinite frontier).

The more money, the more services. But I suspect the money is going to tip away from consumer products and towards B2B.
 
guerilla said:
More money in IM for sure.

Regardless of the state of a stock market bubble, money is going to keep flowing online as this is the most entrepreneurial part of any economy and has the most frontier left to discover (in a sense, infinite frontier).

The more money, the more services. But I suspect the money is going to tip away from consumer products and towards B2B.
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Yeah makes sense about B2B. It's hard to imagine the industry getting even bigger than it is right now, but if you think about it, we're soon going to be hitting the first time ever that nearly everyone in the world and at every age is tech savvy.

I suppose the only issues I could possibly see that would really cripple the market are laws making everything a bitch to comply with, ad platforms like FB only selling ad space to large marketing firms and companies, or Google potentially catering results to big companies that lobby with them. Not saying any of these will happen, just some things I could see happening.
 
People will still look for weightloss magic pills. People will still for a date. People will have more time to play games. More people will fall for bizopp.

And CPC will be cheaper.. Specially Facebook and adwords and hopefully they will be easier on CPA offers with the flight of VC Money advertisers.
 
I don't think CPC is going to go down anytime soon. I think the pressure is, and has been on for a couple years now to maximize ROI with backend offers and better targeting, and then better tools like Shady's thing, which lets you emulate the results of the bigger players.
 
If retard tech startups with some hipster nerd at the top stop getting funding, theyll stop inflating CPCs, which means that you can go back to buying media on real sites. IM flourishes the most when big business fucks up.
 
Regardless of the state of a stock market bubble
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True blogspotter, people are still gonna want the same stuff.

Good point about capturing leads for backend offers guerilla. That's what my next campaign I'm working on involves.

Haha yeah wayn3 I honestly don't see how all these ridiculously founded companies are all gonna make it big. I mean most of these kids are getting funded and have PS3s and Xbox 360s set up in their offices. Plus they all have tech skills, but absolutely no business sense. It really doesn't make sense.

Interesting points about CPC. I suppose if people still are willing to pay these CPC prices even after a decrease in demand, Facebook and Adwords could probably keep them where they are. But then they might not be able to fill all the impressions. Hmm.. it's late and my mind isn't working too well.
 
Inflation creates an upwards pressure on all prices. There is a longer discussion there, but I don't have time right now to make the more nuanced points.

If I was a betting man (and I am not) CPCs are going to continue to go up. Short of some miracle breakthrough, or glut of supply, I can't see prices falling any time soon.
 
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