Fair point. I do think the more Facebook forces Ads on its user, the more opportunity rises for FB alternatives to sprout up. I could see the argument that Amazon went public to get capital for expansion, while Facebook may be going public for investors to cash out.
OFFICIAL Facebook IPO Thread
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Fair point. I do think the more Facebook forces Ads on its user, the more opportunity rises for FB alternatives to sprout up. I could see the argument that Amazon went public to get capital for expansion, while Facebook may be going public for investors to cash out.
Speaking from a future monetization standpoint, there are 3 major areas I can see Facebook moving to. It will take a lot of careful social conditioning and strategic positioning, but I think Facebook has tremendous leverage and can pull these off (remember, when Facebook first introduced newsfeeds, many people complained it was too invasive. Now, thanks to social conditioning, no one even remembers FB ever NOT having a newsfeed.):
1. Competing with Adsense and displaying ads on external sites. Facebook already has the data of every user. Combine that with scraping information of the external websites and Facebook has a very solid way of targeting it's users.
2. Facebook building it's own search engine. Whether FB decides to team up with Bing or go on their own, they have the opportunity to nail down search. Facebook already nailed the social graph. Combining social with search is something that Google will have a VERY tough time competing with. Friends suggestions always take precedent over random searches and FB has the power to leverage that.
And here's the big one...
3. Facebook creates it's own web browser. This one will take the most strategic maneuvering, but will lead to an insanely huge payout. Facebook creating it's own browser and gaining massive user adoption is huge.
Imagine Facebook controlling the internet, much like AOL was able to do. It really isn't that difficult. Think of a non tech internet user, very different than anyone on here. Tell that user that the only way they can log onto Facebook now is through FB's new web browser. But that's okay because it will be an "amazingly enhanced user experience." The masses may groan at first, but then they'll accept it like everything else they've been fed. Facebook isn't gonna see a mass exodus of it's user base because that would take too much work.
Now think about it. Facebook now has every user accessing the internet in their own enclosed ecosystem. If they want to search something, they use Facebook Search. If they want to visit external websites, they are all essentially iFramed within Facebook.
Facebook gets more useful user data for it's Adsense Competitor by storing all its user's search history.
Facebook slowly begins encouraging businesses to create their own websites on Facebook instead of their own .com domain. Facebook gives incentives for businesses to build on Facebook by giving those sites favorable rankings in Facebook Search.
Many companies aren't happy, but traffic is traffic and begin playing by Facebook's rules. Facebook eventually runs the internet.
Extra predictions:
Facebook teams with the gov't and uses Facebook as a security verification to attach users to a real name. Facebook buys PayPal and becomes a merchant of secure transactions that are attached to verified Facebook accounts. Facebook releases an App that allows for Credit Card like transactions on your phone for offline purchase. All of these are very very profitable avenues.
Call me crazy now if you want, but let's go back and revisit this post 3-4 years from now.
1. Competing with Adsense and displaying ads on external sites. Facebook already has the data of every user. Combine that with scraping information of the external websites and Facebook has a very solid way of targeting it's users.
2. Facebook building it's own search engine. Whether FB decides to team up with Bing or go on their own, they have the opportunity to nail down search. Facebook already nailed the social graph. Combining social with search is something that Google will have a VERY tough time competing with. Friends suggestions always take precedent over random searches and FB has the power to leverage that.
And here's the big one...
3. Facebook creates it's own web browser. This one will take the most strategic maneuvering, but will lead to an insanely huge payout. Facebook creating it's own browser and gaining massive user adoption is huge.
Imagine Facebook controlling the internet, much like AOL was able to do. It really isn't that difficult. Think of a non tech internet user, very different than anyone on here. Tell that user that the only way they can log onto Facebook now is through FB's new web browser. But that's okay because it will be an "amazingly enhanced user experience." The masses may groan at first, but then they'll accept it like everything else they've been fed. Facebook isn't gonna see a mass exodus of it's user base because that would take too much work.
Now think about it. Facebook now has every user accessing the internet in their own enclosed ecosystem. If they want to search something, they use Facebook Search. If they want to visit external websites, they are all essentially iFramed within Facebook.
Facebook gets more useful user data for it's Adsense Competitor by storing all its user's search history.
Facebook slowly begins encouraging businesses to create their own websites on Facebook instead of their own .com domain. Facebook gives incentives for businesses to build on Facebook by giving those sites favorable rankings in Facebook Search.
Many companies aren't happy, but traffic is traffic and begin playing by Facebook's rules. Facebook eventually runs the internet.
Extra predictions:
Facebook teams with the gov't and uses Facebook as a security verification to attach users to a real name. Facebook buys PayPal and becomes a merchant of secure transactions that are attached to verified Facebook accounts. Facebook releases an App that allows for Credit Card like transactions on your phone for offline purchase. All of these are very very profitable avenues.
Call me crazy now if you want, but let's go back and revisit this post 3-4 years from now.
LMAO. You don't understand marginalism, markets, price theory or praxeology.
What part of Austrian economics do you claim to understand? That it is from Austria?
Yeah, I can see Mises, Hayek and Rothbard getting together and agreeing that underwriters aren't part of the market. SNARF.
I was with you for 1 and Meh on 2, but Facebook browser.... let's be serious.
One, most people use facebook at work. What employer would allow the facebook browser to be installed?
Two, You are equating facebook traffic to non-social traffic, like google. I guarantee you that if we were to poll everyone on here, everyone would prefer Google active traffic versus Facebook's passive traffic. Googlers are looking for something specific, they are trying to solve a problem. Facebook users are wasting time. End of story.
Three... If Google couldn't take over the world by browser, How the fuck can Facebook do that, when they are barely profitable? And Google makes $40 billion in profits a year? Have you heard of Google Chrome? Chrome Operating system? Andriod? They just barely passed Apple's iphone, and that's because they are open source. So the hell is Facebook going to achieve AOL like world-domination? This theory is going backwards in time, instead of forwards.
Four. You are assuming, everyone has a facebook, or likes being on Facebook. People that love wasting time, love facebook.
Five. I don't know how many Anti-trust laws Facebook would be attempting to break with this kind of control, but I guarantee you they will get an ear ful from governments, just like Microsoft did back in the day, and Google is currently now.
Six. I don't think ebay is going to sell Paypal to facebook. Also, Paypal does not account for the majority of online processing, Authorize.net does.
Seven. There are already Apps that allow you to pay for offline products, go to Starbucks, they have that in place.
Eight. World Domination? First attempt to make profits from your own sphere (social), then Facebook can get to world domination.
Nine. You are crazy, but it was a good attempt.
I'll tell you what - I'm bored. How about we put $10k on it? I think we can come up with a test of some sort that's agreeable and put the money in escrow. I'm open to suggestions, and I'd love to take your money. Unless of course, you're not serious...?
Value (economics) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The economic value of a good or service has puzzled economists since the beginning of the discipline...
Among the competing schools of economic theory there are differing metrics for value assessment and the metrics are the subject of a "Theory of Value." Value theories are a large part of the differences and disagreements between the various schools of economic theory...
Value in the most basic sense can be referred to as "Real Value" or "Actual Value." This is the measure of worth that is based purely on the utility derived from the consumption of a product or service. Utility derived value allows products or services to be measured on outcome instead of demand or supply theories that have the inherent ability to be manipulated.
The economic value of a good or service has puzzled economists since the beginning of the discipline...
Among the competing schools of economic theory there are differing metrics for value assessment and the metrics are the subject of a "Theory of Value." Value theories are a large part of the differences and disagreements between the various schools of economic theory...
Value in the most basic sense can be referred to as "Real Value" or "Actual Value." This is the measure of worth that is based purely on the utility derived from the consumption of a product or service. Utility derived value allows products or services to be measured on outcome instead of demand or supply theories that have the inherent ability to be manipulated.
It is getting interesting, but I'm enjoying this thread because I'm learning. Don't know squat about stocks & trading but learning little by little. Please continue discussion so I can gain more knowledge. Thank you.
Because it will only keep going down.
This stock was on the way down for a full month up till last week when the FB IPO was pushed completely in the spotlight. From that point on, the stock started heading up for the first time in over a month.
The only reason the stock was rising was because people assumed:
"Well if Zynga is responsible for 15% of FB's revenue, and FB is going to be work $100b, then Zynga should also be valued at $15b."
Well today came along, Facebook hit the markets, and didn't go anywhere. Not only that, but some hedgefunds were selling off huge blocks of Zynga and at some point 80% of all trades were shorts.
I'm pretty sure Zynga will be in the $5's or $6's next week. If it does go up, then congrats to the folks that had the balls to stay around. In my situation, I wish I just sold it on Wednesday when the market opened. Had a small gain of $6,000 on it, which is much better than the $16k loss I sold on today.
Google and Facebook are very different. Google is geared toward solving a problem. Facebook is in the entertainment sector (which in and of itself is HUGE). You can't just suggest that Facebook isn't a viable advertising platform because it is geared around entertainment. What works on Google doesn't necessarily work on FB and vice versa.
As for an enclosed ecosystem like AOL is going back in time; The internet is condensing again, not expanding. All you need to do is look at the political pressures in Washington to realize we are in the final years of the golden era of the internet. The companies with the largest political budgets moving toward getting their way and boxing out the competition (creating huge barriers to entry). Bandwidth caps, SOPA, CISPA, etc. The government and lobbyists are moving closer and closer to eliminating anonymous internet browsing. Facebook has the opportunity to be the solution to this issue (Not saying I support it, but they have the influence to make it happen).
Paypal was just an example, but Facebook has the budget to acquire them now. eBay is on life support. Amazon has a foot on their throats. eBay sold Skype for way too cheap, and Paypal is really their only hope for any future sustainability.
I see your points and where you are coming from, I just have no doubt that Zuck and crew have some tricks up their sleeve.
Sorry to hear about the hit. So if I understand you were just gambling on the FB IPO? Or did you actually have confidence in the company? If the latter is the case other than today what changed? Its easy to get caught up in the emotion of loosing money. You mentioned your situation, which I imagine meant that you possibly were investing more aggressively than perhaps you should have been? Either way this is a very dangerous way to invest money and a good way to get burned very quickly.
I know very little about the mechanics of Zenga and dont really care to learn them. My guess though after the initial panic wears off it will start to rebound. And if it was good enough to buy a couple months ago it probably would have been a good idea to buy more when it was put on sale today. As I said I dont have the full picture on them so I honestly cant say what I would have done in your shoes but more than likely would have bought more and try to average down my losses (that is if you weren't just gambling).
Its unfortunate because the guys that manipulated this situation got rich today shorting the stock and they are going to get rich again when they turn around next week and buy it back and continue the rinse and repeat process.
Good luck to you hope it didnt have to much impact on things for you. Hopefully the next time around it goes your way.
Look up sunk costs.
Also unarmed gunman, saying that Guerilla has aspergers isn't making your argument anymore compelling. It just makes you look like an asshole.
Yep, I was just gambling on FB's IPO blowing up, that it would lead people to start buying into companies that are closely associated with them after FB would become too expensive to get in. That didn't happen.
Truth be said, the last move they pulled that killed them was when they purchased the app "Words with Friends" for $200 million I believe. Basically they really overvalued the app, and at this point it already dropped 10% of it's active users.
The hit itself barely scratched me, and this experience helped me learn a lot. As they say, we learn from our mistakes, not from our success.
Edit: As a side note, those weren't my only loses from this whole FB shit. I brought 1,400 shares of FB at $40.80. I ended up selling them all when it hit $39 in the late afternoon. Was just frustrated with the market, and wanted to get rid of any stocks I had that related to Facebook. I also took a $5k hit on FriendFinderNetwork. Brought 10,000 shares at opening price of $2, got rid of it at $1.40. Once again, this stock relied all on FB blowing up. Which didn't happen.
I walked away with a $25k loss for the day. So yes, I'm an idiot.
I only started trading less than a month ago. At this point I think I'm getting in too fast without taking it slower and learning more. Investing $150k+ with limit experience looks pretty stupid to me now that I look at it. Anyhow, taking a week or two off before I start looking to see what other stock I want to lose money too.
Hey man thanks for your honesty in this thread its how people learn. There is a reason we stopped hearing about all the day traders 10 years ago, they all went broke. Take whats left of your nest egg do some real research and spread your risk and dont log back into your account for a year or 2
You doing great bro... That is how you learn.. And at least you have the nerve to walk away at 1 month's experience... When I started out, I didn't and lost even more... I was also young, but I was less responsible as I had easy Money.. Not like the IM, but mostly, from a side business I piggy backed on our family business... Many a fool have lost their fortune because they didn't know when to cut their losses.. It should be a discipline, and shouldn't be situational..
Sorry for the loss though..
Another thing about the stock market is, you don't really feel as bad as when you lose it on a say bad media buy...
Damn that sucks. I think I would of held on to facebook for a couple more days. It will most likely go above $40 again in the next few days. Then I would of dumped it to get my money back.
Thanks for sharing though. Pretty interesting.
If you honestly believe that, buy it when the market opens and then sell at $40, profit.
So sick of people talking shit and not putting their money where their mouth is. Please don't say stuff like "it will..." unless you're covering your talk with actual cash.
tl;dr armchair traders, fuck off.