OFFICIAL Facebook IPO Thread

Will you be purchasing Facebook stock?

  • Total voters
    124
  • Poll closed .


CCarter said:
Now that's how to make money off of Facebook! LOL...
It probably going to keep dropping until next revenue update. It might jump if they make an game changing announcement, but I doubt buying Opera is going to help the stock out. Opera's not that successful as a browser.
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Yea, with the trend it's been on for 3 weeks, I'm looking for it to get as low as $23 by Friday. I'm current up 37.5% ~ $4,050. I invested about $10,500 into the contracts.

My options expire on the 16th of June.
 
CCarter said:
The way it's looking, it'll hit $23, by Wednesday. If there is an upturn tomorrow however, it might be that the $26 is the real bottom.
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I'm seeing it open at $26.50 tomorrow and closing at $25.85. If it's still above $24 by Thursday, I'll be looking to buy more put options.
 
Looks like a gradual drop today.

I took a small risk, just purchased $26 Puts. 25 contracts ~ 2,500 shares. Expiration date is this Friday. It's only a $1,200 risk, and as long as it keeps going down 1-3% a day, I should be fine by Friday.
 
Sounds like an easy bet... The local news station has been badmouthing facebook today as if it were the most worthless dogshit stock ever to be issued... Thinking of placing some Puts myself but I just don't have any time... :(
 
mGrunin said:
Looks like a gradual drop today.

I took a small risk, just purchased $26 Puts. 25 contracts ~ 2,500 shares. Expiration date is this Friday. It's only a $1,200 risk, and as long as it keeps going down 1-3% a day, I should be fine by Friday.
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That's cutting it close. There was a recommendation of about $25 or some number by a analyst agency a couple hours ago. Without any new "big" bang news, Facebook is surely going to continue to drop. Especially with the news organizations bad-mouthing it like one poster said.
 
CCarter said:
That's cutting it close. There was a recommendation of about $25 or some number by a analyst agency a couple hours ago. Without any new "big" bang news, Facebook is surely going to continue to drop. Especially with the news organizations bad-mouthing it like one poster said.
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Well Facebook just broke $26. :) Currently trading at $25.90.

It is a cutting it close, but that's also why I only risked a small amount of money. 4/5 articles that were being written on FB were negative, just didn't see anything saving them by Friday.
 
This whole thing is a bit concerning for the entire SV area really. Could take a massive hit on company early stage financing. Especially companies who've already raised some money, and worked getting money pretty easily into their business plans.

Great news for the VC's though.

VC's make a mint on the IPO, and can now snap up great companies in the valley at a much lower price due to exit related concerns.
 
Paul Graham Y Combinator, sent an email to portfolio companies warning them "bad times" may be ahead.

Jessica and I had dinner recently with a prominent investor. He seemed sure the bad performance of the Facebook IPO will hurt the funding market for earlier stage startups. But no one knows yet how much. Possibly only a little. Possibly a lot, if it becomes a vicious circle.

What does this mean for you? If it means new startups raise their first money on worse terms than they would have a few months ago, that's not the end of the world, because by historical standards valuations had been high. Airbnb and Dropbox prove you can raise money at a fraction of recent valuations and do just fine. What I do worry about is (a) it may be harder to raise money at all, regardless of price and (b) that companies that previously raised money at high valuations will now face "down rounds," which can be damaging.

What to do?

If you haven't raised money yet, lower your expectations for fundraising. How much should you lower them? We don't know yet how hard it will be to raise money or what will happen to valuations for those who do. Which means it's more important than ever to be flexible about the valuation you expect and the amount you want to raise (which, odd as it may seem, are connected). First talk to investors about whether they want to invest at all, then negotiate price.

If you raised money on a convertible note with a high cap, you may be about to get an illustration of the difference between a valuation cap on a note and an actual valuation. I.e. when you do raise an equity round, the valuation may be below the cap. I don't think this is a problem, except for the possibility that your previous high cap will cause the round to seem to potential investors like a down one. If that's a problem, the solution is not to emphasize that number in conversations with potential investors in an equity round.

If you raised money in an equity round at a high valuation, you may find that if you need money you can only get it at a lower one. Which is bad, because "down rounds" not only dilute you horribly, but make you seem and perhaps even feel like damaged goods.

The best solution is not to need money. The less you need investor money, (a) the more investors like you, in all markets, and (b) the less you're harmed by bad markets.

I often tell startups after raising money that they should act as if it's the last they're ever going to get. In the past that has been a useful heuristic, because doing that is the best way to ensure it's easy to raise more. But if the funding market tanks, it's going to be more than a heuristic.

The startups that really get hosed are going to be the ones that have easy money built into the structure of their company: the ones that raise a lot on easy terms, and are then led thereby to spend a lot, and to pay little attention to profitability. That kind of startup gets destroyed when markets tighten up. So don't be that startup. If you've raised a lot, don't spend it; not merely for the obvious reason that you'll run out faster, but because it will turn you into the wrong sort of company to thrive in bad times.

--pg
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So something pretty cool. I spent 2-3 hours today trading Apple options back and forth. I was just setting up buy limits and sell limits on call options for Apple. The following was the result:

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I came out on top with a $1,100 realized gain. Apple is such a volatile stock, it's ridiculous. I was just paying close attention to where the support levels were and resistance levels, and setting my buy/sell limits on those.

Just a minute ago my limit was triggered, purchased another 5 contracts at $8.35. Lets see if I could finish with another successful trade by closing time ~ 13 minutes.

I do know that trading 5 contracts is pretty low amounts, but this is my first time trading back and forth options during the same hour, so I didn't want to risk much. Obviously if I would have been purchasing 15 contracts at a time, my gain would have been 3x more, but so would my risk have been.
 
Alright, here is my current options portfolio:

CTdrz.gif


Unfortunately I couldn't Apple to hit my sell limit on my last trade, it actually came 5c away, before dropping down again. It's fine, I'm extremely positive it will recover enough to hit it tomorrow.

Anyhow, on to Facebook. I am current up 42% on my $26 puts that I purchased this morning, so that's coming out to a $595 gain. Then on my FB $29 puts, I am up 59%, which is equal to $6,451. Nice.

For those that are questioning why I purchased those FB $31 calls, it was just made to hedge a portion of the risk in buying put options. It's there in case some huge news came out about Facebook sky rocketing the stock or something. At least the gains from that call would help decrease some of the loss from the $29 put. I will most likely lose that call, but that's fine, it was only a $330 trade.
 
pocketrockets said:
Paul Graham Y Combinator, sent an email to portfolio companies warning them "bad times" may be ahead.
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That's self-serving b.s.; real players in the VC arena have never had more capital than they do today.

But I do like the advice to treat any round of backing like it's your last, it's sound for any number of reasons, but not the least of it is that you'd be demonstrating to investors that you don't waste money.
 
infoslob said:
That's self-serving b.s.; real players in the VC arena have never had more capital than they do today.
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I don't think he is implying that VC's have less $$ but that they could be less likely to open up their checkbooks now. The VC investment activity was already on the decline before the Facebook disaster.
 
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