I agree - whether I like it or not. But I'm talking about a 100% complete lack of physical privacy. What I see eventually happening is the continued miniaturization and cheapening of camera's, drones, and eventually nanites until they become surveillance nanites that could be so cheap (and possibly self-reproducing) that they end up literally everywhere.
I can easily imagine at some point in the future anyone could see anyone or anything in the world at any time they want without the permission of the viewed. It will be impossible to stop. It's basically omnipresence.
There are quite a few different techs that will be coming out in the next few hundred years that will change what it means to be human. It will completely change society and our interactions. Omnipresence for all might mean a complete end of all wars.
God bless you.guerilla, I agree with most of what you said in your last response to my posts.
Not exactly. The market is the only rational way to solve these problems. Rational = means congruent with ends.I understand that market forces and competition fix a LOT of things. But you seem to believe that the market is perfect and can solve all problems.
In a free market, they bear the consequences of their errors. The free market doesn't reward irrational behavior.Both the government and markets are operated by humans. Humans are not perfect and often make mistakes. They often do things that don't make sense, are irrational, and not in their best interest. There are tons of companies that are very poorly run, abusive, or fraudulent.
Well, we don't have perfectly free markets, but you're welcome to provide examples (although I hate going this route of whose information gathering skills are better) and I might be able to show examples of firms getting help in staying "successful" while operating anti-socially.These {bad/inefficient} {companies/people/sectors/divisions within a company} can stay that way for years, decades, lifetimes, or indefinitely because nobody within the company cares, nobody notices, it doesn't have an effect on profits, or it doesn't have a significant enough effect on profits.
Totally serious.Not.Sure.If.Serious.jpg
To see this development in a positive light is to ignore the fact that extension of credit is not - as conventional wisdom would have you believe - solely about your ability to pay. Rather in the best of cases it is based on a balance between potential profits on interest as well as minimizing the risk of default. But If we have learned anything in the last 6 years it is that lenders have increasingly shifted the balance towards profits over the elimination of risk. The proof is in lenders actions. Creditors now consider late fees in their profit models. Mortgage companies made millions of loans to people who were not worthy of a carrying a loan based on their credit and there income. The risks were shifted to other sectors of the economy or to the public sector. In many cases the risks were simply ignored, for short profit gain with little regard for the sustainability of the companies themselves.
Do people really have a hard time getting credit in the U.S.? They may have a hard time getting good terms, but predatory lending is still the norm. The article mentions college students. This is a perfect example. This is a demographic group who's members are often unemployed or working low paying jobs, have little or no established credit history, and a high statistical risk of default. Yet your typical college student is inundated with offers for credit. High interest credit, but credit nonetheless.
Although, a personal anecdote does not constitute a trend, I will still offer a little personal experience anyway. I'm a big fan of same as cash deals. The ones where if you pay the balance off within some time period, you pay zero interest. However, I have never failed to pay off the balance prior to the interest coming due. In essence I have used them a free personal loans. I keep the money in my bank earning interest, the store gives me the product and loses out on the benefit of having all the money for the product they sold me and earning the interest themselves. Of course they offer these plans because statistically most people will fail to pay off the balance in time and end of paying the interest. Despite the fact that I have kept excellent credit and have always held a good stable job throughout my adult life, I have been turned down a number of times for these kinds of deals. If credit worthiness or income were the issue, I would have no trouble getting the loan. This is despite the fact that I have had no trouble getting preferred financing on secured and unsecured loans from credit unions and banks in the past. On several occasions I actually called to contest the card or loan being turned down. In each case I was told the same thing. My credit history indicated an established history of paying off loans on time or early, as if that was a negative thing! I was told that It would not be profitable for the company/store to extend me a same as cash deal. This completely flies in the face of conventional wisdom, but does illustrated the reality that the extension of credit is a more complex process then it seems. It makes business sense too if you understand their motivations. Why would a store want to extend a deal to whose purpose is to trap the consumer into paying a high interest payment on some item, when that person has a history of not falling into the trap? They also assume that if I don't get the same as cash loan I will simply pay for the item. Its a risk they take because the real profit is not in selling me an item, but in selling me the credit to buy the item. This is basis for our finacialized economic system. The U.S.'s chief product today is consumer debt, not consumer goods.
This data will not be used to make loans to people that otherwise have little established credit history. They already give these people loans. Rather it will be used to more accurately predict which customers will be most profitable. These high profit individuals are those who carry high balances on multiple revolving accounts, and pay late. The exact opposite of people with good credit. Creditors in collusion with the government have already made it difficult to default and are continuing to do so, so traditional credit worthiness is in essence becoming less important. The future (actually the present too) is permanently indebted customers who pay interest (rents) to creditors indefinitely. This technology will be used to better identify those potential members of new indentured class.
FICA = Federal Insurance Contributions Act (aka) payroll tax.
I know you were referring to FICO, although I disagree with your points. FICO score is a quantitative representation of an intangible. In this case it is the likeliness of an individual to pay back a loan. It is, as you allude to, based on more than repayment history alone and includes things like amount of credit, high balances, etc. These are all things that are found to statistically correlate to a higher likelyhood that you will default on your debt. The score does not represent whether or not you will be a good customer. A good customer is sort of an amorphous concept. Yes, it may include how likely you are to pay your debts, but it includes the other things you discuss like how likely you are to add to the profitability of a business. It also may represent how much assistance you require from staff, are you difficult, are you loyal, etc. The problem with "customer-worthiness" and the reason we have quantitative measures like FICO is peoples definition of "customer-worthiness" can be extremely biased. Race and gender, for example have historically been used as a factor in judging "customer-worthiness" and still is in many cases; just not openly. Unfortunately people receive a different quality of customer service based on appearance and socioeconomic background all the time. One intended benefit of numerical scoring like FICO is that it is based on standard metrics that are supposed to be divorced from bias. FICO is a metric used across the industry in and of itself. This is superior to having to rely solely on the good or bad will of some loan officer. The good old day of a gentleman handshake sealing the deal were mostly good days so long as you were a white male. Of course lenders are not forced into using solely FICO scores or FICO scores at all. And you are right in that they, and credit reports in general, have begun to define people. I think that this is an awful trend. Its one of the many aspects of modern life the makes me want to move to the wildness and live like Grizzly Adams. I don't want to be defined by a number. Not my my FICO score, and not by Klout score either. FICO ignores circumstances, bad luck, or identity fraud (although its effects can be contested). It is far too inelastic as well. A college kid living off of ramen noodles may have a completely completely different real credit-worthiness when they graduate and get a good paying job (assuming they can). It will take a while however for their score to catch up. Divorced women who have not worked outside the home ever, or in many years are in an even worse situation. Just checking if anybody actually reads this shit which I copied from two comments on the site. They may have a good job, but zero credit history. Their score is not necessarily an accurate reflection of their default risk. These situations perhaps are where it is a good thing if a loan officer has some flexibility. Its not a black and white issue. FICO scores are good and bad.
However all of this misses the point of my original post. I think the evidence has shown - and I'm talking about the national state of affairs, not solely my personal anecdote - that in the eyes of today's lenders, bad credit and a higher likely hood to pay higher rates and rack up penalties and late fees are actually desirable qualities from a profit standpoint. Higher risk customers represent higher profits. It doesn't matter if this creates systemic risk because: A. lenders are working to make default harder or impossible, and B. because the government has shown a willingness to turn a blind eye and bail these industries out when the systemic risk turns to systemic collapse. I submit that the technology discussed in the article will not simply be used to provide an under-served population an alternative metric for determining credit worthiness. Lets get real. This technology will be used the same way all aggregated personal data is used. That is, it will be used to target customers in any way that maximizes profit for those industries, with little regard for the negative externalities it creates.
See, what you're trying to rationalize (I think) is government intervention. But as I said before, the market is voluntary, the state uses force. So what you're saying is that we should use force (or the threat of force) and bypass the market (voluntary relationships) and the price system to enforce outcomes.
The only way a company can be abusive or fraudulent is if they are protected by the law/state (see most recent banking crisis, zero prosecutions).
To see this development in a positive light is to ignore the fact that extension of credit is not - as conventional wisdom would have you believe - solely about your ability to pay. Rather in the best of cases it is based on a balance between potential profits on interest as well as minimizing the risk of default.
But If we have learned anything in the last 6 years it is that lenders have increasingly shifted the balance towards profits over the elimination of risk. The proof is in lenders actions. Creditors now consider late fees in their profit models.
Mortgage companies made millions of loans to people who were not worthy of a carrying a loan based on their credit and there income. The risks were shifted to other sectors of the economy or to the public sector. In many cases the risks were simply ignored, for short profit gain with little regard for the sustainability of the companies themselves.
Do people really have a hard time getting credit in the U.S.? They may have a hard time getting good terms, but predatory lending is still the norm.
The article mentions college students. This is a perfect example. This is a demographic group who's members are often unemployed or working low paying jobs, have little or no established credit history, and a high statistical risk of default. Yet your typical college student is inundated with offers for credit. High interest credit, but credit nonetheless.
Although, a personal anecdote does not constitute a trend, I will still offer a little personal experience anyway. I'm a big fan of same as cash deals. The ones where if you pay the balance off within some time period, you pay zero interest. However, I have never failed to pay off the balance prior to the interest coming due. In essence I have used them a free personal loans. I keep the money in my bank earning interest, the store gives me the product and loses out on the benefit of having all the money for the product they sold me and earning the interest themselves. Of course they offer these plans because statistically most people will fail to pay off the balance in time and end of paying the interest. Despite the fact that I have kept excellent credit and have always held a good stable job throughout my adult life, I have been turned down a number of times for these kinds of deals. If credit worthiness or income were the issue, I would have no trouble getting the loan. This is despite the fact that I have had no trouble getting preferred financing on secured and unsecured loans from credit unions and banks in the past. On several occasions I actually called to contest the card or loan being turned down. In each case I was told the same thing. My credit history indicated an established history of paying off loans on time or early, as if that was a negative thing! I was told that It would not be profitable for the company/store to extend me a same as cash deal. This completely flies in the face of conventional wisdom, but does illustrated the reality that the extension of credit is a more complex process then it seems. It makes business sense too if you understand their motivations. Why would a store want to extend a deal to whose purpose is to trap the consumer into paying a high interest payment on some item, when that person has a history of not falling into the trap? They also assume that if I don't get the same as cash loan I will simply pay for the item. Its a risk they take because the real profit is not in selling me an item, but in selling me the credit to buy the item. This is basis for our finacialized economic system. The U.S.'s chief product today is consumer debt, not consumer goods.
This data will not be used to make loans to people that otherwise have little established credit history. They already give these people loans. Rather it will be used to more accurately predict which customers will be most profitable. These high profit individuals are those who carry high balances on multiple revolving accounts, and pay late. The exact opposite of people with good credit.
Creditors in collusion with the government have already made it difficult to default and are continuing to do so, so traditional credit worthiness is in essence becoming less important. The future (actually the present too) is permanently indebted customers who pay interest (rents) to creditors indefinitely. This technology will be used to better identify those potential members of new indentured class.
...FICO score is a quantitative representation of an intangible.... It also may represent how much assistance you require from staff, are you difficult, are you loyal, etc. The problem with "customer-worthiness" and the reason we have quantitative measures like FICO is peoples definition of "customer-worthiness" can be extremely biased. Race and gender, for example have historically been used as a factor in judging "customer-worthiness" and still is in many cases; just not openly. ...FICO scores are good and bad.
... in the eyes of today's lenders, bad credit and a higher likely hood to pay higher rates and rack up penalties and late fees are actually desirable qualities from a profit standpoint. Higher risk customers represent higher profits.
I submit that the technology discussed in the article will not simply be used to provide an under-served population an alternative metric for determining credit worthiness. Lets get real. This technology will be used the same way all aggregated personal data is used. That is, it will be used to target customers in any way that maximizes profit for those industries, with little regard for the negative externalities it creates.
Zsaleem said:Just checking if anybody actually reads this shit which I copied from two comments on the site.
Yes, this is where we disagree. Since the markets are not perfect and can become abusive and fraudulent, the government needs to occasionally step in and fix some things. Yes it messes with prices, but it is usually worth it.
What. What about Enron or Madoff? Not everybody obeys the laws. Companies can straight up just fabricate their earnings and be rewarded for it.
Anonymity: “Some governments will consider it too risky to have thousands of anonymous, untraceable and unverified citizens — “hidden people”; they’ll want to know who is associated with each online account, and will require verification at a state level, in order to exert control over the virtual world
Search engines: “Within search results, information tied to verified online profiles will be ranked higher than content without such verification, which will result in most users naturally clicking on the top (verified) results. The true cost of remaining anonymous, then, might be irrelevance.”
How can markets become abusive and fraudulent, if by definition, markets are voluntary?Yes, this is where we disagree. Since the markets are not perfect and can become abusive and fraudulent.
This is a non sequitur. It's like me saying, because it rains, the government has to do something about it. Or because I didn't like the dinner you ate, therefore REGULATION.the government needs to occasionally step in and fix some things.
You can't determine that for everyone. No one person, or committee can. You're unintentionally making an argument for a centrally planned economy.Yes it messes with prices, but it is usually worth it.
What happened to Enron? What happened to Madoff?What. What about Enron or Madoff? Not everybody obeys the laws. Companies can straight up just fabricate their earnings and be rewarded for it.
First, Eric Schmidt is an idiot.
How can markets become abusive and fraudulent, if by definition, markets are voluntary?
guerilla said:Markets are perfect.
I want to ask you something. If that social information can lower costs for some people, by helping firms determine who is prudent and who is not, is it fair for you to protect the risky people with law, at the expense of people who deserve lower rates?
Aren't you punishing the winners to reward the losers?
Just watch, listen and learn all about them. We will overthrow these fascists for the good of the people!/QUOTE]
Fascism is a form of socialism.
Fraud and abuse are not market relationships. They are anti-market behavior.Most relationships are voluntary, what does that have to do with fraud and abuse?
I have a limited number of posts I can make right now, and you don't understand economics at all. You'd probably really benefit from an Econ 101 course to get some grounding in the basic ideas and terminology.
Alternately, if you have Skype, PM me and we can chat there.
How did Eron get by the regulators? Why did the SEC ignore all of the complaints made against Madoff for years? Why has no one been prosecuted on Wall Street for the financial collapse that was triggered by the investment banks?Your statement "The only way a company can be abusive or fraudulent is if they are protected by the law/state" makes no sense to me.
Again, finance is the most regulated part of the commercial sector. And yet, here you are worrying about fraud. Why is that? I suspect, because the regulation doesn't work, and I can tell you that empirically and logically, doubling down on regulation won't work any better.
I've tried to explain terms to you, but I suspect you still don't understand what I mean when I talk about markets.How can the market be perfect when it is made up of decisions made by imperfect humans?
The only way to get proper (ethical, just, rational) prices, is through voluntary exchange. This is an undisputed fact in the field of economics, across many schools.
That's why the market is perfect. It is the only mechanism we're aware of that can do this.
We're going in circles because you don't understand that interventions cannot rationally fix the market. All they will do is distort further and increase prices.I would say they are useful, but not perfect. And when they become messed up why not intervene and fix them. And we are just going to keep debating in a circle around this....
I have demonstrated this, I have laid out the logical chain for it. And you've avoided addressing that so far. Again, I have a limited number of posts I am willing to make, and I don't want to make the discussion personal, but the fact that you refuse to confront what I think are very strong and well reasoned arguments is what makes this discussion circular.
Why don't you know? Don't you think there is a moral responsibility for you to know before you endorse intervening in the economic and social affairs of millions of people?
Your privacy isn't being violated. It's information you make public. When you go through the airport, and TSA porno scans you, that's a violation of privacy.I don't think I'm willing to have my privacy violated in that way to get insurance or other financial products. Like I said earlier, it would just lead to many people, including me creating well managed social accounts.
Also, people will manage their social affairs more intelligently. Is that a bad thing? I thought your argument is that people aren't smart enough to do that. I argue, they will when there are consequences to being a douchebag on the internet, just like there are already social consequences for being a douchebag offline.
It seems to me, you want to have your cake and eat it too. I mean, if you don't want people to invade your "privacy" pay higher prices, because assuming this information is useful for risk profiling purposes, you're going to pay more anyway if firms are not allowed to use it (and as I indicated, they are going to use it, law or no law).
You're not entitled to jobs, student loans, or cheap loans. There is someone on the other side of the provision of those services, and as long as you maintain you have some right to access, then you're basically forcing them with threats of violence to give you something they would not give you voluntarily. That to me is immoral.
And economics will show you why that is also irrational (won't actually serve your ends).
It's all irrelevant anyway, because when the US financial system inevitably cracks up next year, in 5 years, in 20 years, no one will be able to get credit because there won't be any.
The original rationale for government was to protect individual liberty. Not to make sure you can get cheap car insurance.It's hard to see how the data will be used and therefore hard to determine if the government should stop it.
They aren't going to be able to get loans soon anyway. This entire credit system is headed for collapse.If every single company ends up requiring it for everybody, that is pretty messed up. Normal people wouldn't be able to get a job, car loan, credit card, etc without it.
But that aside, how is better risk profiling for people in the risk business "messed up"? Again, do you do no optimization? Do you not incorporate new data points in your work?
You're making a luddite argument that the social good lies in being ignorant, rather than being informed. And if that conflicts with your view of government, good, because your view of government could also use a re-examination IMO.
Watch this between 18:52 and minute 42:00 if you want to understand regulation in the US.
[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpP-4ZhvTdE]Rick Rule - Paradigms of a Winner (Capitalism & Morality Seminar 2012) - YouTube[/ame]
I don't think I will post again to this thread so PM (or Skype) me if there is something you want to discuss further.