Peter Schiff: Dollar Will Collapse In The Next Two Years
- Thread starter hellblazer
- Start date
what's amazing is that he's profited off of information that's accurate.
the man gets ridiculed by mainstream financipundits, yet is and has been consistently correct on just about everything he's cared to speak about.
this has led to consistently healthy gains on his investments, and those he advises.
must see TV:
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdVP_sgCETo"]YouTube- Broadcast Yourself.[/ame]
his actual market research -- instead of 'for public consumption' biz advice -- combined with a 'fuck you, I calls it as I see it' bravado is best to be trusted until what he's saying is proven otherwise, by data instead of spin.
s'not to say he won't abuse his reputation of truthiness for private gain at some point, greed can get the best of us.
but so far, peter schiff has spoken his truth.
I'll give his advice more than a doubtful benefit, based on what he's been saying for nearly a decade.
...you're right though. it'd be a hell of a lot easier if all the doom and gloom was bullshit.
collapse is necessary. it'll be bad. we'll get over it, and have a chance to build it better.
(1st post here)
We still have the world's highest GDP and US based companies are still bringing a ton of foreign dollars into the national economy every day(Wal-Mart, Microsoft, McDonalds, etc). In the countries that experienced financial collapse, did they have a strong economy prior to the collapse? Like, I'm wondering if inflation only becomes a problem once the national economy becomes weak?
We still have the world's highest GDP and US based companies are still bringing a ton of foreign dollars into the national economy every day(Wal-Mart, Microsoft, McDonalds, etc). In the countries that experienced financial collapse, did they have a strong economy prior to the collapse? Like, I'm wondering if inflation only becomes a problem once the national economy becomes weak?
The thing is that the US doesn't have a strong national economy, the net balance of trade is heavily skewed towards imports.
see, thats why I doubt that the dollar will lose even more. they have put so much money in circulation to save all those banks that they will have to remove it from the market soon enough to keep the dollar stable. question is, how will Bernanke be able to make this happen without putting us into another crisis. because, lets be honest, americans get almost everything on credit and most US-citizens rely on cheap money to live the good life.
as always, hellblazer is exagerating so much that I just laugh at his posts. but at least this time the core message is right: the dollar is never again gonna be at the level where it used to be 10 years ago. if you have half a brain and a certain amount of USD in stock, you wont need any money jesus aka. Schiff to be aware of that.
Hmmmm.... I remember reading a couple of months ago that we have the highest GDP in the world. I don't know any other ways to measure the strength of an economy, but surely this has to count for something? How else can we measure the strength of an economy? And the American economy isn't just solely based on purchasing from other nations, since as I mentioned above, the largest earning corporations in the world are still American based(Wal-Mart, Microsoft, GM).
Anyways, I don't know much, I'm just trying to figure this out.
Look at the above posted chart - yes, the dollar has constantly gone down.
Will it collapse? Probably not.
But should you invest in assets, not currency? Fucking yes.
It should not take a collapse of a currency to make you all start to think about putting your cash into gold, real estate, silver, or stocks. You should reach a point, and actively strive towards, having your offline investments making you more than your online activities.
Will it collapse? Probably not.
But should you invest in assets, not currency? Fucking yes.
It should not take a collapse of a currency to make you all start to think about putting your cash into gold, real estate, silver, or stocks. You should reach a point, and actively strive towards, having your offline investments making you more than your online activities.
You have to look at the trade surplus, or in Americas case a huge trade deficit among other things.
Remember that nothing is too big to fail. Just like with AIG if the government had let it fail the good assets would have been bought up, bad assets taken a loss on and everything would go back to normal.
Japan will fail long before America though. Their leveraged to the hilt and literally on the verge of economic ruin. Japan also holds large amount of US treasury bonds, right?
I'm no economist so I wont try to understand what would happen - but I imagine Japan falling would be a good thing for the US as it would take the heat off of them a bit.
It's highly unlikely the greenback will fail in two years. The US would make severe cuts in spending before this happened (Medicare, Medicaid, Welfare, Social Security etc..) . Not to mention almost all of the world would make sure this didn't happen. Everybody would be screwed since the dolllar is the current reserve currency.
People are hedging against the dollar because of inflation. That's how you make money from a shitty economic front, it is what it is. Shit will just keep getting more expensive over the years if inflation keeps going up.
If the American economy did collapse, you can say goodbye to a handful of other countries as well. There are a few countries that are dependent on us.
People are hedging against the dollar because of inflation. That's how you make money from a shitty economic front, it is what it is. Shit will just keep getting more expensive over the years if inflation keeps going up.
If the American economy did collapse, you can say goodbye to a handful of other countries as well. There are a few countries that are dependent on us.
"Severe" cuts aren't politically viable, I wouldn't hold my breath on cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security as long as the AARP block doesn't stop voting. And given that it's Dems in power do you really think there are going to be big cuts in any of those programs?
With the situation the US has gotten itself into (with the help of the Fed) it's not a question of IF the dollar collapses it's a question of when. No need to overcomplicate the issue when the Fed's monetary policy is wrong at its core.
Also, I noticed some "left wing right wing" arguments being thrown in the thread. Check this shit out and grow out of that false paradigm. Just listen to the message.
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bF6Dt7SS_yw"]YouTube- Broadcast Yourself.[/ame]
Also, I noticed some "left wing right wing" arguments being thrown in the thread. Check this shit out and grow out of that false paradigm. Just listen to the message.
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bF6Dt7SS_yw"]YouTube- Broadcast Yourself.[/ame]
I guess I can"t consider this my own theory anymore. I've been trying to explain this shit to people for years and they look at me like I'm nuts. The dems and repubs need each other to survive and keep us distracted from seeing the real issues. They use racism and religion and entertainment to keep us all distracted to. Anything to keep our eyes off what's really going on.
I am an avowed lefty, and thus have Zero tolerance for Hellblazer and his cohorts in this joint however this is one of the very few times, his core message is most probably right. The tectonic shift has already occurred and the green back is fucked. May not be tomorrow, or next week, however it will happen. Which is a real pity, there is so much to admire about the US, however Rome is burning and I am afraid, its already way too late for a fix.
If you actually looked at the market lately you'd realize you're wrong.
Not to mention the dollar will only increase as soon as the Fed raises interest rates again. As soon as that happens the dollar will go up even more and gold will go down even more.
Doom preachers are usually wrong (Peter Schiff, Alex Jones). But if they preach doom for their whole lives chances are they'll be right 1 year out of 50 just out of chance.
Compare 1995 to 2009:
You can barely see the major crash at the end there for gold, but it's already started. Check it out on a 5 or 1 year scale and you'll see what I mean
And I'm not saying over the long run gold is a bad investment in my previous 2 posts. I'm just saying I'm fucking sick of these dumb-assed ridiculous conspiracy economists.
You're watching too much god damned Zietgiest, Alex Jones, Peter Schiff, etc.
I'd like to know if they're putting their money (if they have any) where their mouth is and are going 90% gold in investments or something.
You're watching too much god damned Zietgiest, Alex Jones, Peter Schiff, etc.
I'd like to know if they're putting their money (if they have any) where their mouth is and are going 90% gold in investments or something.
The interest rate is the price of money. It is a measure of the amount of savings in an economy. When the savings are plentiful, rates are low. When savings are scarce, rates are high.
Low rates, encourage capital investment (and diminish hoarding), high rates encourage saving and diminished consumption.
It is a self-balancing system.
If you believe that simply raising and lowering rates always achieves a desirable outcome without any opportunity costs, than you are missing the fundamental insight of economics (and life in general). Every intervention which unbalances a system, comes with an equal consequence. Nothing is free, every debt must be paid.
The problem long term, is that the FED has kept interest rates suppressed for a long time, and this encourages people to consume, regardless of the amount of capital in the system. In fact, because it is so cheap to consume, people stop replacing capital goods, thinking that it will be cheaper to replace them in the future since so much savings is available for investment. But there is no savings, it is just an artificially set rate by politicized bankers.
By tweaking any price, you cause market distortions of the self-balancing system.
Interest rates are low right now, because if they go up, they will destroy the dollar by triggering massive bankruptcies. If there was only an upside to raising rates, it would already be done.
The core problem is a depletion of the capital stock. What makes a country/economy/person wealthy is their education, their laws, all sorts of things. But none of that translates into significant productive gains without capital goods.
Compare a man digging ditches with his hands. Now give him a shovel. Now give him a steam shovel. Same man, massive productive gains through the deployment of increasingly complex and expensive capital goods.
Depletion of the capital stock causes export nations to become import nations. And import nations are poor nations in the long run.
What Ron Paul, Lew Rockwell, Peter Schiff understand, is Austrian economics, and this very important approach to the interest rate vis a vis capital and time.
This enabled Schiff to predict the dot com bust, and the housing bust. If you have read Schiff's Crash Proof 1, you would know with what uncanny accuracy he predicted exactly what would happen in housing, and with Gold, and with the government response.
So to say he was right 1 year out of 50 is terribly misguided and blatantly untrue. The reason why he preaches doom, is because doom is on the long term horizon. It's no secret the global monetary system is unstable and flawed. Only a fool would claim otherwise.
You might not like Schiff's pessimism porn (look at marketers moan about marketing tactics) but the fundamental economic concepts behind Schiff's claims are sound.
