5 countries will kill the Euro

Giving you a taste of your own medicine bro... just so you know.

How dare you call me a texan. ;)

I do agree that a lot of Americans are quick to defend their countries but blast others. I have met many other people from other countries that do the same thing.


I do wonder if those countries, you mentioned, would still be looking good if they had the same population as the US.
 


Inflation as we are using it (correctly) is an increase in the money supply. When you inflate the money supply, you are not raising values, you are only increasing nominal valuations. Huge difference.

Precisely why I said, "price" or "value" or whatever you want to call it. The increase isn't real, perhaps you didn't get that from my post.

You're not accounting for the long term consequences of discouraging saving in the means of exchange (liquid money) and encouraging speculation in other asset classes (seeking the returns no longer available to cash) and over consumption in an economy with a shrinking capital base.

This is patently false. The only reason cash has any return at all is because banks will pay you for it so that they can use it to invest it in "real" capital projects. Currency itself has no value - it's fiat. Also, assuming that banks will make better investments than the people that actually hold a claim on the currency is a bit elitist (and wrong) don't you think? This is the same mode of thinking that causes socialists to think the government will make better decisions with your money than individuals.


What it does is get people to invest currency immediately (because saving it leads to depreciating value) into projects which cannot be completed. This initial investment phase, is the boom, complete with resources being bid up higher and higher in the market (the higher prices = prosperity idea) but ultimately, those higher prices are completely unjustified and the path is unsustainable, which leads to the bust.

Currency should be invested immediately, since it is fiat and holds no real value. It's only purpose is to be converted into real capital. Inflation causes it to happen quicker, deflation causes it to happen more slowly or not at all which is why any economist will tell you deflation is the far bigger danger to economic growth. Again, I'm not saying a fiat system is my preference, but you have to play by the rules of the game. Based on a fiat system, most of your assumptions are completely incorrect.
 
Precisely why I said, "price" or "value" or whatever you want to call it. The increase isn't real, perhaps you didn't get that from my post.
I didn't get that. Value and price are not synonymous under fiat money and since you used both, I assumed you meant that value and price were synonymous.

This is patently false. The only reason cash has any return at all is because banks will pay you for it so that they can use it to invest it in "real" capital projects.
Not just banks. You could loan your cash directly to someone at a rate of interest. The bank is just a lending agent, with all of the infrastructure in place to execute many loans on a massive scale.

Cash has value because it is a medium of exchange (and theoretically a store of value). It lifts us out of barter economies where we don't have to find a "double coincidence of wants" in order to execute a trade. Like, if you have butter to trade and you want paper, you don't have to find a stationary supplier who really needs butter. You can sell butter to anyone who has cash, and then use that cash to buy the paper. If money loses its purchasing power under inflation, then people will not store value in it.

The reason why banks pay a return, is because cash is scarce, and again, they cannot issue loans based on a barter system, seeking people who want an investment in butter, to borrow butter from the bank. The amount of interest paid on cash, is a reflection of the scarcity of savings in an economy. Higher interest rates indicate cash for investment is scarce, and the higher rate attracts more savings. Lower interest rates indicates the stock of savings is sufficient for current projects, and thus people are disincentivized to save, and incentivized to consume. The interest rate is a price, and a very important one.

Also, assuming that banks will make better investments than the people that actually hold a claim on the currency is a bit elitist (and wrong) don't you think? This is the same mode of thinking that causes socialists to think the government will make better decisions with your money than individuals.
I think it is elitist. And it is not my position.

Currency should be invested immediately, since it is fiat and holds no real value.
No. That is wrong. As I explained, money has to be a stable store of value in order to be an effective medium of exchange.

It's only purpose is to be converted into real capital.
Nope. Money is a form of capital. Real capital.

Inflation causes it to happen quicker, deflation causes it to happen more slowly or not at all which is why any economist will tell you deflation is the far bigger danger to economic growth.
The only economists who tell you deflation is a bigger danger are quacks and Keynesians. People have been lied to for generations that deflation is bad, when the most productive times in American history for example, occurred when there was persistent deflation. The reason why there is deflation scaremongering is that deflation is bad for government growth. Inflation is the only way for government to grow massively and persistently. Remember, inflation is a tax on savings. A tax most people cannot understand, and do not detect in the short run.

Deflation is when money increases in value, which leads to falling prices. Falling prices = increased purchasing power. Rising prices = decreased purchasing power.

A capitalist should never favor inflation or deflation but sound money. Sound money leads to deflation naturally.

We've debated this fallacy about getting rich by overpaying before when talking about trade protectionism.

Again, I'm not saying a fiat system is my preference, but you have to play by the rules of the game. Based on a fiat system, most of your assumptions are completely incorrect.
You can assert they are incorrect, but they are not.

Fiat money has a different character from sound money, but it doesn't operate under different economic rules than sound money.
 
Right, and if you need ACL surgery in Canada, I'm sure you'll get it sooner than 4 months. What a joke. I can't believe you guys are still peddling this garbage even after it was jammed down the throats of the American people. Just give it a fuckin break.

uh, you would.
 
In that picture above do you have any idea how much money and waste goes into making that fist pumping bravado?

When you have as much debt as we do, you are pretty fucking glad you spent a lot of it on that shit, trust me.
 
Is anyone else wondering when the good people of Germany are going to get tired of carrying all that dead weight around, and "give it another go"? Eventually all that Nazi guilt is gonna wear off.

Looking at that graph that was my exact thought as well.

One difference is that for ww2, it was germany who owed everyone, not the other way around.

Either way, I think Germany is going to be in a very strong position over the next few decades unless the euro gets massively inflated.
 
UG, I think we mostly agree on some things, and re-reading your posts, I think we might be talking past each other a wee bit.

Yes, fiat money necessitates reserving your savings differently. However, it is very dangerous to seek ROI in other investment classes in an inflationary atmosphere, as the demand for those asset classes can be somewhat arbitrary and unsustainable.

Inflationary periods lead to booms, and booms lead to busts when asset prices collapse. Land in particular is at the center of most artificial booms, going back centuries, even to Tulip Mania.

And the deflation thing, don't fear it. No government ever collapsed from deflation. No society ever imploded from prices being too low and savings being too high.

Inflation on the other hand,

vr3sef.jpg


2cr4j7t.jpg
 
Not just banks. You could loan your cash directly to someone at a rate of interest. The bank is just a lending agent, with all of the infrastructure in place to execute many loans on a massive scale.

But people rarely do that because historically, it has been inefficient. With the increase of technology it may become less so, but for now most people store their money in a bank. The bank only pays a return on that money because they make investments with your money and they pay you a very small piece of their profits in return. I have always found that I make better investment decisions with my money than the banks do, which is why I try not to "save" too much currency (as you would have us do) and rather invest that currency (which you seem to think is harmful) in order to realize far greater returns on my money. Any I'm not a speculator either.

Cash has value because it is a medium of exchange (and theoretically a store of value). It lifts us out of barter economies where we don't have to find a "double coincidence of wants" in order to execute a trade....

You're assuming the two options are a fiat currency or a barter economy. You should know better than that.

If money loses its purchasing power under inflation, then people will not store value in it.

No, they will do even better. They will invest that money into capital projects (thus producing, rather than saving), or other less liquid capital investments whose nominal prices will increase as inflation rises thereby not eroding their actual value.

The reason why banks pay a return, is because cash is scarce, and again, they cannot issue loans based on a barter system...

Again, you are assuming the only alternative to a fiat currency is a barter system and we know that isn't true.


I think it is elitist. And it is not my position.

You may not want it to be your position, and I respect that. But calling for an increase in cash savings at the expense of capital investments by individuals has that effect. You're simply giving all of the cash to the banks and telling them to invest it as they see fit.

Nope. Money is a form of capital. Real capital.

Money is simply a store of value. As such, it is generally defined as a form of capital, but it produces nothing, and has no true value in a production sense until it is actually converted.


The only economists who tell you deflation is a bigger danger are quacks and Keynesians...

That's ridiculous. When prices are deflating, there is no incentive to invest in any thing of real value, since you would do better to simply wait. The longer you wait, the more purchasing power your cash has. Thus, deflation has a negative impact on economic growth, and rewards people for saving currency (which is worthless, since it fiat), and punishes people for investing and taking on capital intensive projects that would produce value.

A capitalist should never favor inflation or deflation but sound money. Sound money leads to deflation naturally.

But we don't have sound money, we have a fiat currency so once again your argument is moot. If you want to argue that we should get off of our fiat system I would agree, but that ship has long since sailed and it will never happen, short of an economic apocalypse. And sound money does not lead to deflation naturally, it leads to stable values.

Fiat money has a different character from sound money, but it doesn't operate under different economic rules than sound money.

It most certainly does operate under different rules. It's a whole different monster, maybe that's why we're in disagreement because most of what you're saying would be true under a sound money system.
 
But people rarely do that because historically, it has been inefficient. With the increase of technology it may become less so, but for now most people store their money in a bank. The bank only pays a return on that money because they make investments with your money and they pay you a very small piece of their profits in return.
Right, but I'm not appealing to historicism. People use banks because banks have a monopoly on fractional reserve banking. Individuals can't loan out at 10 times reserves. When they do, they become Bernie Madoff. When the bank does it, it is legal tender. Counterfeiting is legal if you have a badge.

That is a big reason why people use banks for investment returns and not strictly for warehousing as they did prior to the 20th century.

I have always found that I make better investment decisions with my money than the banks do, which is why I try not to "save" too much currency (as you would have us do) and rather invest that currency (which you seem to think is harmful) in order to realize far greater returns on my money. Any I'm not a speculator either.
Both of your bracketed claims are untrue and a little belligerent.

I would not have people "save too much". The market driven interest rate communicates to market actors when to save, and when to spend. Interest rates are prices. The entire notion of too much or too little is something you introduced to this discussion, not me. I don't even believe in ideas like too much or too little. The market will decide.

I don't see invest as harmful either. It is necessary. In order to have capital accumulated for investment, we need interest rates to communicate what the supply of loanable funds are to entrepreneurs and investors. High rates tell investors to save more, and entrepreneurs to slow down (high debt service costs), low rates tell investors to save less and for entrepreneurs to start developing capital (borrowing is cheap because it is plentiful). The market is a self-correcting mechanism.

You're assuming the two options are a fiat currency or a barter economy. You should know better than that.
Not at all. I am talking about barter, and an economy with a medium of exchange. Whether that medium is fiat or not is irrelevant that point.

No, they will do even better. They will invest that money into capital projects (thus producing, rather than saving), or other less liquid capital investments whose nominal prices will increase as inflation rises thereby not eroding their actual value.
Right but those capital projects can only be completed if there is enough capital in the economy to finish the project. Under inflation, investment always outpaces production, and there is a bust, when the projects that cannot be finished, run out of capital. You've got to remember, inflation doesn't just encourage people to invest, it encourages them to consume, and that consumption, is what might otherwise have been reserved as savings for future investment.

This is starting to get into more complicated concepts like time preference which is why I asked you to watch the video, because the presentation there is pretty good about covering all of this broadly. I simply don't have the time or skills to convey it all in a forum thread on a working day.

Again, you are assuming the only alternative to a fiat currency is a barter system and we know that isn't true.
Already addressed.

You may not want it to be your position, and I respect that. But calling for an increase in cash savings at the expense of capital investments by individuals has that effect. You're simply giving all of the cash to the banks and telling them to invest it as they see fit.
Not at all. I believe you have misunderstood my position. I am calling for an increase in savings because a path of debt based consumption is not sustainable and can have catastrophic social consequences (see Hitler picture). I am also saying that inflation makes it undesirable to save in cash, which is why inflation is bad.

We should be willing to save in cash, and should save in cash because it is a medium of exchange, and if we took the "avoid cash" idea to its absurd conclusion, we would be forced back into a barter society. Cash is a very important capital good. It is the common store of economic value in the economy (necessary for complex trades) and it is a measuring stick of value from one transaction to another. If the value of a dollar or euro fluctuates daily within their own respective economies, it becomes very hard to make sound economic judgments, as the value scale is constantly changing.

It's like trying to build a treehouse using a measuring tape for dimensions, and each day you work on the project, the measuring tape gets longer and the gaps between the inches becomes greater. Several days in, you are going to be short materials from your earlier plans, because nothing is long enough to match your plan.

Not to mention, fluctuating cash values, retards the utility of using cash as the important good it is, forcing people to make investment decisions they might not otherwise make, which further distorts the economy. Suddenly when people should be holding cash, they get stuck into an overpriced house, that when the market collapses, they cannot liquidate back for the same value they invested.

And lastly by distorting the value of the currency through inflation, that creates uncertainty, and markets, entrepreneurs and investors don't like uncertainty. Massive uncertainty is bad for business. Investors and entrepreneurs like to take informed risks, not wild chances. The former is investing, the latter is gambling.

That's ridiculous. When prices are deflating, there is no incentive to invest in any thing of real value, since you would do better to simply wait. The longer you wait, the more purchasing power your cash has. Thus, deflation has a negative impact on economic growth, and rewards people for saving currency (which is worthless, since it fiat), and punishes people for investing and taking on capital intensive projects that would produce value.
Marginal utility undermines this premise. Generally, each additional unit of a good provides diminishing returns, and so as more savings are accumulated, there is less incentive to save and more incentive to do something consumptive with each additional unit of cash.

Also, interest rates come into play. As the stock of savings increases, the interest rate falls to reflect that savings are no longer scarce. So the incentive to save in cash diminishes naturally. Basic supply + demand. It's not profitable to save in excess where the interest rate is free.

It most certainly does operate under different rules. It's a whole different monster, maybe that's why we're in disagreement because most of what you're saying would be true under a sound money system.
It operates differently under the same rules. The debate between us is an understanding of what the rules are. There is no debate that fiat money and sound money are different animals.
 
People use banks because banks have a monopoly on fractional reserve banking...That is a big reason why people use banks for investment returns and not strictly for warehousing as they did prior to the 20th century.

I would disagree. I doubt most people have any clue what fractional reserve banking is. Most people use a bank because they don't want their money under their mattress, and they like the convenience of direct deposit and online bill paying.

In order to have capital accumulated for investment, we need interest rates to communicate what the supply of loanable funds are to entrepreneurs and investors. High rates tell investors to save more, and entrepreneurs to slow down (high debt service costs), low rates tell investors to save less and for entrepreneurs to start developing capital (borrowing is cheap because it is plentiful).

Again, you're assuming the capital investments would be debt driven - why? Surplus cash can be used far cheaper (you're simply forgoing the nominal interest rates a bank would offer to use your money) than debt. This makes it far easier to have positive NPV projects versus using a higher proportion of debt because the debt costs obviously have a negative impact on profitability.


I am talking about barter, and an economy with a medium of exchange. Whether that medium is fiat or not is irrelevant that point.

Whether the medium of exchange is fiat or not makes all the difference in the world. In one case the store of value has value itself which ensures that saving it can have a positive (even if delayed) result whereas in the case of a fiat currency there is no actual value backing it making it's value easy to erode through inflation.


Right but those capital projects can only be completed if there is enough capital in the economy to finish the project.

Shouldn't the markets be free to determine that? An investor would not undertake a capital project that he can't finish, since he wouldn't be able to realize a profit on the capital investment. Again, you're assuming all projects are debt-driven.

You've got to remember, inflation doesn't just encourage people to invest, it encourages them to consume, and that consumption, is what might otherwise have been reserved as savings for future investment.

That consumption drives an increase in production which moves more capital from those consumers to the owners of busineses, who are then free to increase their investments in other capital projects.

I believe you have misunderstood my position. I am calling for an increase in savings because a path of debt based consumption is not sustainable and can have catastrophic social consequences (see Hitler picture). I am also saying that inflation makes it undesirable to save in cash, which is why inflation is bad.

Again, you're assuming debt based investments, when I'm saying that isn't what we're referring to. What to do with surplus cash is the whole point of our disagreement. You'd like to see it given to the banks (in the form of cash savings) for the banks to invest as they would see fit. I happen to think people are better off investing their surplus cash in their own businesses since the returns they can see have far more potential than the nominal interest they will receive from banks. In fact, less savings would force banks to offer higher interest rates in order to secure deposits.

We should be willing to save in cash, and should save in cash because it is a medium of exchange, and if we took the "avoid cash" idea to its absurd conclusion, we would be forced back into a barter society.

We shouldn't take it to it's absurd conclusion because that would be absurd. Cash shouldn't be avoided, just surplus cash savings. This surplus is different for everyone - some people might like to keep 3 months worth of cash on hand, others more, some less. Anything beyond that minimum required reserve should be considered surplus and invested for maximum returns in terms of production and in terms of profit.

Suddenly when people should be holding cash, they get stuck into an overpriced house, that when the market collapses, they cannot liquidate back for the same value they invested.

Once again, you're making debt-driven assumptions. We're talking investment of surplus cash vs. savings of surplus cash.

Marginal utility undermines this premise. Generally, each additional unit of a good provides diminishing returns, and so as more savings are accumulated, there is less incentive to save and more incentive to do something consumptive with each additional unit of cash.

Now you're talking time value of money. Time value of money also dictates that a dollar is worth more now, then later (ie a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush). Although not completely relevant to the point, it too, encourages investment of surplus cash over savings.
 
At this point, I don't even know what we're talking about anymore. You jumped on something I wrote, calling it incorrect, but including your last post, you still haven't demonstrated you understand what I am talking about, taking the discussion on other tangents.

So unless you are able to articulate an actual argument against my position, I'm probably done because at this point, I'm just addressing all of the errors in your post, which isn't fun for either of us.

I would disagree. I doubt most people have any clue what fractional reserve banking is.
They don't need to for my point to be true.

Most people use a bank because they don't want their money under their mattress, and they like the convenience of direct deposit and online bill paying.
All of which they could do with PayPal which is a warehouse and service operation, not unlike the way banks operated prior to the FED. The reason they use banks, is that banks can provide a return and are FDIC insured against fractional reserve insolvency. The banks have a monopoly and are very tightly regulated by the FED cartel. Not that any of this is here or there to our discussion.

Again, you're assuming the capital investments would be debt driven - why?
Because I have been talking about credit markets all along.

Whether the medium of exchange is fiat or not makes all the difference in the world.
Not to my point. Perhaps to whatever it is you are arguing, but not to the point I was making about money qua money.

Shouldn't the markets be free to determine that?
And they do. That is why startups and Stone Cold Creamery go out of business when the boom ends. They were engaged in models that could only persist during a credit boom, and were unsustainable once the structure of production corrected.

An investor would not undertake a capital project that he can't finish, since he wouldn't be able to realize a profit on the capital investment.
Tell that to every investor who ever took a loss. Investors do not have perfect knowledge. When interest rates and other market signals are distorted, entrepreneurs create clusters of error, which result in a recession. That is the unwinding of the inflationary cycle.

I am simply articulating Hayek's Nobel Prize winning business cycle theory in layman's terms. That is also what Woods explains (much better than I) in the video you refuse to watch.

Again, you're assuming all projects are debt-driven.
Again, this is you not understanding my argument, and projecting your argument onto me. I am talking about money and credit, specifically credit markets.

That consumption drives an increase in production which moves more capital from those consumers to the owners of busineses, who are then free to increase their investments in other capital projects.
Read it 5 times. I have no idea what it means.

Again, you're assuming debt based investments, when I'm saying that isn't what we're referring to.
Already addressed.

What to do with surplus cash is the whole point of our disagreement.
But I don't claim to know what to do with surplus cash. In fact, I think the notion of surplus cash falls well outside anything I posted which you claimed to disagree with. This is your own particular interest, not mine.

You'd like to see it given to the banks (in the form of cash savings) for the banks to invest as they would see fit.
I never said that, because that is not what I believe. It is a strawman you keep posting.

I happen to think people are better off investing their surplus cash in their own businesses since the returns they can see have far more potential than the nominal interest they will receive from banks.
That is based off your continued misunderstanding of what I have written. You keep making these claims about my position being pro-bank deposit, which is totally bizarre, because I'm not even talking about banks.

The only dispute here is you arguing with me, by claiming I have an opposing position. I have no opinion on what investors should do with their money. It is their money. They can roll it up real tight and stick it up their pooper, they can put it in the bank, they can burn it on the front lawn, they can use it as wallpaper. I don't care. It's irrelevant to my first post which you addressed.

We shouldn't take it to it's absurd conclusion because that would be absurd.
Reductio ad absurdum. It's used to demonstrate a contradiction. It's part of formal logic.

Cash shouldn't be avoided, just surplus cash savings. This surplus is different for everyone - some people might like to keep 3 months worth of cash on hand, others more, some less. Anything beyond that minimum required reserve should be considered surplus and invested for maximum returns in terms of production and in terms of profit.
This is investing, not monetary theory. I am talking about monetary theory, which is value neutral. You are talking about investing based on a particular set of values or preferences.

Once again, you're making debt-driven assumptions. We're talking investment of surplus cash vs. savings of surplus cash.
Once again, you're completely misunderstanding the discussion. You're talking about one thing, I am talking about the other, and I have no interest in talking about what you're talking about (investment strategy and outcomes).

Now you're talking time value of money. Time value of money also dictates that a dollar is worth more now, then later (ie a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush). Although not completely relevant to the point, it too, encourages investment of surplus cash over savings.
*sigh*

Next time, before you tell me I am wrong, ask me some questions about my position, before assuming it is something it is not, and wasting both of our time chasing tails. There are lots of people here who will talk about investing and fiat money. I'm sorry if I mislead you to believe I am one of them.
 
...long drawn out circular response...

OK, obviously neither one of us is going to budge since we're both convinced we're right. I guess I'll just defer to the fact that if inflation in a fiat system were not considered desirable, then we wouldn't see a monetary policy built around sustaining 1-3% inflation.

You can quote Hayek all you want and post videos of an intellectual giving a speech at a college, but none of it is relevant because every central banker we've ever had under our fiat system strives to maintain moderate inflation to sustain economic growth. But perhaps you and the guy on Youtube are the smart ones...
 
I guess I'll just defer to the fact that if inflation in a fiat system were not considered desirable, then we wouldn't see a monetary policy built around sustaining 1-3% inflation.
Cui bono?

You can quote Hayek all you want and post videos of an intellectual giving a speech at a college
I didn't quote Hayek. I posted the video so that people who are interested and normally PM me for more info, wouldn't have to reach out to do so. It never occurred to me that someone would make an argument based on confusion and the video might come in handy for clearing that confusion up.

but none of it is relevant because every central banker we've ever had under our fiat system strives to maintain moderate inflation to sustain economic growth.
Absolutely it is relevant. Hayek is one of the most influential economists with regards to monetary policy and political economy in the 20th century.

Moderate inflation does not sustain economic growth. that is a non sequitur. The FED's mandate is to maintain price stability and full employment.

But perhaps you and the guy on Youtube are the smart ones...
It doesn't take much to be smarter than Alan Greenspan.
 
Do you understand the difference between a quote and a reference?

No. Could you put together a 1,000 word response with plenty of name drops and references to "straw man arguments", to help explain it to me?


Then why couldn't you articulate an argument against "his logic" if you saw the flaws?

Because I was arguing with you. He wouldn't have been able to entertain me for quite as long.
 
Ireland is basically fucked, too much cheap money during our own US FDI instigated boom created a huge property bubble. It's scary the amount of people I know who are late on payments for their huge negative equity mortgages.

The Irish government guaranteed all bank liabilities until September 2010 when I hope they'll just let some banks go bust which they already are.
 
Germany should get the fuck out of the Euro and back to the Deutschmark or all these losers are gonna pull them down with them.