Agreed.
First off, mad respect to both you and Mike for posting here.
Second, If you want to know why we are so paranoid, one word can summarize it pretty well. "Chat". Beyond the keyword itself, we all know AMs gossip. It's a fact of life. And it's a risk. The networks as a whole I'm sure in (MOST) cases aren't meaning to damage people, but it does happen.
Third, while I agree the scrubbing/shaving and whatnot is not something that can be normally blamed on the networks(large networks did not get large by fucking people over consistently), I would say look at the data us affiliates have available to us, and think what you would decide given that data.
- Multiple networks generally have the same offer. Some run it through other networks, some have it direct.
- All networks have the same landing page.
- Split testing identical offers often shows very different conversion rates on different networks.
From that, the only variable(aside from the clicks themselves, which become more and more statistically insignificant as their numbers go up) is the network. So it would be safe to assume that the disconnect is indeed somewhere in the network.
That said(like most things) it's not that simple. And this btw, is in defense of the networks.
The further back the network is in the circle jerk of cross-publication, the less control they have. Every redirect the click has to go through to hit the main page is another point of failure; a redirect that may be too slow, a cookie that may not drop, etc. If a network is sending shit traffic anywhere in the chain, a network wide scrub can appear from the merchant, and affect all other networks in that chain.
Beyond that, affiliate marketing produces some statistical anomalies that could make most stats professors shake their head in confusion. For example, I'm willing to share that back when I was running wu-yi tea, the keyword "wuyi tea" converted conistantly better than "wu-yi tea" even with a sizable volume of traffic to gather stats from. So things of that nature can also be to blame for the split test.
But it's not unreasonable for an affiliate to conclude the network is at fault in some way when identical offers produce different EPCs. We can see and control nearly every other factor, but when it hits the network, it's our blind spot. We don't know what happens after that point.
What I'd really like to see from networks as far as scrubbing goes, is simply a notification or flag on the offer that says WHAT it scrubs for. It's insane to ask us to produce traffic for an offer that's not labeled as having any restrictions, then have some traffic mysteriously not count.
Anyone here have an API for anything dating related? I'm sure everyone that does knows exactly what I mean. Would it be too much of an issue to at least say what leads true is discounting? That would move "trust" between networks and affiliates light years forwards. If we know what's wanted of us, we can do it. But we don't get that information for some reason.