OFFICIAL Facebook IPO Thread

Will you be purchasing Facebook stock?

  • Total voters
    124
  • Poll closed .
guerilla said:
You can't speculate and not lose money. The trick is to get out before you get blown up.


You know many restaurants with 800 million customers? You know many restaurants that have the capability to monetize their customers when they leave the restaurants?

You've made some decent points, but this isn't one of them.
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Gotta adjust the customers to the ratio we are talking about, and then it might be close. The hotdog patent was intended to replace the potentiality of their database.

To be worth 100B, to me they would have to be able to make 5-10B a year with their current market position. (but with possible monetization) I have not mathed out whether that would be possible or what that would mean in terms of ad sales etc
 


Does anyone know what Google makes from Adwords (gross rev) per year?

Now imagine a similar reach but with higher CPMs due to better targeting.

That's the *possible* upside.

I think an important distinction needs to be made.

1. Stock trading. That's a typically short game. Today's stock price is crucial information.

2. Investing in Facebook. That's a long game. Today's share price matters less.
 
WickedJoe said:
Catching a falling knife is fun? Nah, you need other indicators that a trend is about to reverse before buying a falling stock
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I disagree. Like I said earlier, I recommend waiting until there is a strong rally, but you don't have to wait until that happens.

When oil was trading at $30 a barrel a few years ago, it was obviously a good bet. When the stock markets or housing markets are down 60%+ it's probably a good idea to buy based solely on the price and that what you are buying still has good value.
 
r3p1v said:
When oil was trading at $30 a barrel a few years ago, it was obviously a good bet. When the stock markets are down 60%+ it's probably a good idea to buy based solely on the price and that what you are buying still has good value.
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I've thought the same thing before. But honestly the only reason there was the major oil and whole stock market reversal was because of government bailouts. They rallied on bailout news - not because oil finally hit $30.

Without the bailouts the S&P 500 very seriously could have kept going down to 400..300..100 whatever. Remember, the entire financial system had a credit crisis.. nobody was lending to each-other.. that's the absolute worst case scenario.
 
WickedJoe said:
I've thought the same thing before. But honestly the only reason there was the major oil and whole stock market reversal was because of government bailouts. They rallied on bailout news - not because oil finally hit $30.

Without the bailouts the S&P 500 very seriously could have kept going down to 400..300..100 whatever. Remember, the entire financial system had a credit crisis.. nobody was lending to each-other.. that's the absolute worst case scenario.
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Yeah but you could have bought knowing that the government isn't just going to sit there and watch everything collapse. That's what Buffet did.
 
guerilla said:
Does anyone know what Google makes from Adwords (gross rev) per year?

Now imagine a similar reach but with higher CPMs due to better targeting.

That's the *possible* upside.

I think an important distinction needs to be made.

1. Stock trading. That's a typically short game. Today's stock price is crucial information.

2. Investing in Facebook. That's a long game. Today's share price matters less.
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I don't have the actual numbers in front of me, but google only makes like 30% of their revenue from the content network. The rest comes from search ads, which is something facebook won't be able to touch for a long long time (unless they do something crazy with bing or something, but even then they're fighting an uphill battle already)
 
I think that targeting someone when they are searching for something is often more valuable than targeting somebody that is browsing around on Facebook and likes a specific thing.

If you are able to target someone when they are searching for something like "buy car insurance" that is extremely valuable. Can Facebook really compete with that?
 
guerilla said:
You know many restaurants with 800 million customers? You know many restaurants that have the capability to monetize their customers when they leave the restaurants?
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Facebook users are not the customer, they are the product. The advertisers are the customer.

Not arguing with your point on monetization, but I think it's an important distinction.
 
Unarmed Gunman said:
Facebook users are not the customer, they are the product. The advertisers are the customer.
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The entire restaurant analogy was silly. There are very few businesses remotely similar to Facebook, and none very close to Facebook.

Hence why the arguing and the spreads. When something isn't well understood, the spreads are larger (information asymmetry).
 
guerilla said:
Get the #s. Then increase CPMs.
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Google Reports Q4 2011 Earnings, $10.58 Billion in Revenue; 90M Google+ Users - Search Engine Watch (#SEW)

Google Sites Revenues

Google-owned sites generated revenues of $7.29 billion (69 percent of total revenues), a 29 percent increase over Q4 2010 revenues of $5.67 billion.
Google Network Revenues

Google's partner sites generated revenues, through AdSense programs, of $2.88 billion (27 percent of total revenues), a 15 percent increase from Q4 2010 network revenues of $2.5 billion.
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not sure what you mean about increasing CPMs as we have nothing to base that increase on other than the hunch that facebook's ads will be better than google's because of facebook's extra demographic data.
 
dchuk said:
not sure what you mean about increasing CPMs as we have nothing to base that increase on other than the hunch that facebook's ads will be better than google's because of facebook's extra demographic data.
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Do people subscribe to SerpIQ because they have a hunch that the data is valuable, or do you think you can demonstrate the value of targeting?
 
I think a more interesting question is at what price is FB going to be worth buying?

Probably not until below $20/share if my math is right.
 
r3p1v said:
Yeah but you could have bought knowing that the government isn't just going to sit there and watch everything collapse. That's what Buffet did.
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This is what Corzine assumed would happen in Greece and acted accordingly.

Then when things didn't go his way, it turns out stole and lost $1.2 billion cash of customer clearing funds and 3,200 people were out of work.

No charges, no jail, no fine. He did waive his $12 million compensation, however. Sporting chap he is.

Point is, not many sure things out there.
 
guerilla said:
Does anyone know what Google makes from Adwords (gross rev) per year?

Now imagine a similar reach but with higher CPMs due to better targeting.

That's the *possible* upside.
Click to expand...

CPM rates at Facebook were up 41% since last year, yet total revenue is on the decline. They currently have "better targeting" so why isn't it increasing their revenues?

Why do you think that is? It looks like mobile is killing them. More than half of its some 900 million users now access its mobile site. I know my wife almost never uses a desktop to browse Facebook since she got an iPhone 2yrs ago.
 
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