OFFICIAL Facebook IPO Thread

Will you be purchasing Facebook stock?

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    124
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My prediction:

Facebook stock goes to $500 a share while dominating google in search. Give it 3 years.

We all will be optimizing for Facebook search.
 


pocketrockets said:
Please tell me how much these external ads will bring in? The value of each FB member? There are already metrics on that (see above)

Yes, Bing and Yahoo do bring in a combined 30% market share... and STILL THEY LOSE BILLIONS!!
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Hmm what do google ads bring in? That will give you an idea of what the pie they will be aiming at.

And no it doesn't account for the value of each member. It accounts for the revenue of each member. Please realize that a portion of their valuation is the POTENTIAL to capitalize on each member. Lord. I'm done trying to educate you :costumed-smiley-087
 
Pb.com said:
You should work on you're argument. First of all, there is a huge chance that they are going to expand their ad network to allow external facebook ads. That alone will increase their revenue tremendously once they get traction. You fail to realize the value of the information on each fb member. No matter what they do, they know close to everything about you. That means $$$ to advertisers and those of us who are intelligent enough to strike when it is right.

Secondly, did you see that Bing grabbed 30% of searches recently. Guess you missed that.

I'm done arguing with you. You still fail at evaluating. I'm out :smilie_weihn_winki:
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Pb.com said:
Hmm what do google ads bring in? That will give you an idea of what the pie they will be aiming at.

And no it doesn't account for the value of each member. It accounts for the revenue of each member. Please realize that a portion of their valuation is the POTENTIAL to capitalize on each member. Lord. I'm done trying to educate you :costumed-smiley-087
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Yes, because replicating what Google does and building the platform and monetizing the ads is just so easy... what happened to YPN? Bing losing Billions? thought so = P

Let's see, FB is down only -15% since yesterday? Please keep dropping your sweet investing knowledge... it's really paying off! LOL
 
Not sure why some folks keep saying that Facebook's business model (ads) is unsustainable or not scalable. Are we forgetting that till date, Google still earns the majority of it's money from ads?

If Facebook does end up integrating their ads the same way Google does with the content network, then that will really boost their revenue. Not only that, but as an advertiser, we would have so much available information on the demographic that we are targeting via Facebook's 'content network', that it would completely outplay Google.

We all know that Facebook's biggest asset is user information. The only other corporation that knows about us as much as Facebook does is the government. As long as Facebook plays the right moves, they can bank very hard on us.

Do we not remember a couple months ago when Facebook was reported to have more traffic than Google?
 
pocketrockets said:
Yes, because replicating what Google does and building the platform and monetizing the ads is just so easy... what happened to YPN? Bing losing Billions? thought so = P

Let's see, FB is down only -15% since yesterday? Please keep dropping your sweet investing knowledge... it's really paying off! LOL
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Look dumbshit. All I am saying is that facebook definitely has the potential to rock the socks off of the investors. I'm not saying they will, but they DEFINITELY have the potential to do so. Opening up external ads would be huge. I guarantee you it would succeed with a half assed execution on their part. You still suck at putting two things together. Keep on selling BST's man. Maybe when you get enough reviews, my VA will email me your BST as one of the 5 new ones to look at for the week and give me his 2 sentence reasoning.
 
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mGrunin said:
Not sure why some folks keep saying that Facebook's business model (ads) is unsustainable or not scalable. Are we forgetting that till date, Google still earns the majority of it's money from ads?
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Right, but Google has a ton of users with CC in hand ready to spend money. Facebook does not. This is a very significant difference in traffic quality.
 
kingofsp said:
Right, but Google has a ton of users with CC in hand ready to spend money. Facebook does not. This is a very significant difference in traffic quality.
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True. Which is why FB's earning per user is not impressive. But once they start displaying ads on websites, like the Google Content Network does, their earning per user will go up. It's very true that people only go on to Facebook to slack off, but if FB can use their targeting data + catch people when they are not just slacking off, they can be superior to Google when it comes to ads.
 
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mGrunin, do you think Facebook displaying ads would cause any backlash with users, e.g., "facebook is following me around, wtf" or would people not even care/notice? Personally I hate it when any site auto-logs me in via facebook... I'm always like fuck that, Facebook is only for talking to friends and seeing vacation photos, and I don't want all of my friends to see what Yelp place I reviewed or what comment I left on an SEO blog. Either they won't care, or I don't want to put my whole life out in front of them. Am I alone in this?

I have a feeling that after the novelty wears off (which is soon),people will tend to gravitate back toward an anonymous web in certain regards. And I want to build a damn site/network/method etc. to help in that... Look how popular Chatroulette became very quickly (until the dickrolls took over and gave the site a life of it's own). I think enough people thirst for anonymity that social will change in very interesting ways.
 
Traquer said:
people will tend to gravitate back toward an anonymous web in certain regards.
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Short of massive government censorship or crackdowns, the anonymous web is dying. The truth is, we're all extroverts, even those of us that like to think we're introverts.

I enjoy privacy, but those days are ending. It's time to get in front of your public identity sooner than later. At some point, you're going to stick out like a sore thumb online if you only go by a nickname.
 
mGrunin said:
If Facebook does end up integrating their ads the same way Google does with the content network, then that will really boost their revenue. Not only that, but as an advertiser, we would have so much available information on the demographic that we are targeting via Facebook's 'content network', that it would completely outplay Google?
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THIS THIS THIS. This right here is why I'm buying Facebook stock. I think it's a near guarantee that they will be introducing some sort of content network in the future. When they do (probably when users are ready to take that level of "privacy invasion"), their unbelievable demographic data is going to give them a huge advantage over google. Advertisers will pay higher CPC to get more targeted users, publishers will make more money, and FB ads will be everywhere. This could multiply their revenue tenfold. Think about how many more views there are on the rest of the internet than just FB alone.

Huge opportunity here. I'm buying into it.
 
chatmasta said:
THIS THIS THIS. This right here is why I'm buying Facebook stock. I think it's a near guarantee that they will be introducing some sort of content network in the future. When they do (probably when users are ready to take that level of "privacy invasion"), their unbelievable demographic data is going to give them a huge advantage over google. Advertisers will pay higher CPC to get more targeted users, publishers will make more money, and FB ads will be everywhere. This could multiply their revenue tenfold. Think about how many more views there are on the rest of the internet than just FB alone.

Huge opportunity here. I'm buying into it.
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I've been appreciating the discussion in this thread and I know nothing about stocks in general. But even if Facebook does get this content network going, how much should we value them at? Yes, I know value is subjective and it could be the case that investors decide to value them at 1 trillion dollars or whatever, but for me, wouldn't investors going off the fundamentals most likely value them in the 200-300 billion range (assuming they take over Google's business completely).
 
guerilla said:
I don't think understanding economics is boring, but YMMV.
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I got pissy and I apologize. Among other things, it was douchelike of me to call economics boring - on that count I'm 100% wrong.

------

Moving on, this is pretty good - and I think his notion that this IPO was more or less a secondary offering (because Facebook more or less played guardian to certain institutions and individuals who were free to buy in and then trade its shares amongst themselves) is fascinating...
How Facebook Fucked Up Its Own IPO | The Big Picture

This "trading" (not sure what to call it) helped drive valuations of the company higher and higher. There were a lot of things about the whole story that I've never seen before.

While I wouldn't be as harsh on Mark Zuckerberg (arrogant man-child) as Ritholtz, I do think MZ will be a much richer man at the end of the day if his ego would allow an Eric Schmidt-type to come in and run Facebook. These are very expensive lessons that he doesn't necessarily have to learn - and there's no guarantee he will get much wiser from them anyway.
 
chatmasta said:
THIS THIS THIS. This right here is why I'm buying Facebook stock. I think it's a near guarantee that they will be introducing some sort of content network in the future. When they do (probably when users are ready to take that level of "privacy invasion"), their unbelievable demographic data is going to give them a huge advantage over google. Advertisers will pay higher CPC to get more targeted users, publishers will make more money, and FB ads will be everywhere. This could multiply their revenue tenfold. Think about how many more views there are on the rest of the internet than just FB alone.

Huge opportunity here. I'm buying into it.
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A near guarantee? More like hopes and dreams, good luck with that one, adspend has already been tanking on FB while the entire website has been stagnant.

Down another 4% in premarket. Market Cap already below 70b.
 
Did you guys read the news that the underwriters cut their forecasts midway through the IPO roadshow but only told a handful of big investors? Seems likely to be some big time SEC action against the underwriters and maybe even FB.

FB down 4% in premarket trading.
 
Djshorty89 said:
But even if Facebook does get this content network going, how much should we value them at?
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Google's content network accounts for I believe 25% of their total revenues. If Facebook takes that up entirely (very unlikely), their RPU is ~$3 per quarter and current market cap makes sense when compared to Google. But pricing that into the stock price right now is absurd. As it stands today, $35 billion market cap is where FB should be (IMO).
 
geomark said:
Did you guys read the news that the underwriters cut their forecasts midway through the IPO roadshow but only told a handful of big investors? Seems likely to be some big time SEC action against the underwriters and maybe even FB.

FB down 4% in premarket trading.
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I'm sure this story is going to get complicated as hell, but I believe the strangely timed forecast adjustments was the direct result of Facebook amending the IPO prospectus (kind of copping to some possible slowdowns in advertising growth, I think) - these analysts had to act.

BUT, in theory these guys are being paid to draw conclusions from public troves of data. Their results are proprietary, meaning the institutions they work for can (and will) do whatever they want with it. And this often means sharing it with important customers first.

I am sure there's a case, though, as there almost always is when a stock goes down.

Good paper on the alleged role of sell-side analysts in stock prices
http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/depep/Sem...s/2011_VISemRiscosBCB_04h00_ViktoriaDalko.pdf
 
geomark said:
Did you guys read the news that the underwriters cut their forecasts midway through the IPO roadshow but only told a handful of big investors? Seems likely to be some big time SEC action against the underwriters and maybe even FB.

FB down 4% in premarket trading.
Click to expand...

Some news outlets picked up on that when Facebook filed that amendment on May 9, expressing caution about revenue growth but for some reason the story didn't receive much attention until now.

That major shift in users from desktop to mobile is a real concern as they make almost nothing from them. Trying to monetize with ads on a small screen phone without pissing off users will be tough.
 
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