OFFICIAL Facebook IPO Thread

Will you be purchasing Facebook stock?

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    124
  • Poll closed .
nickster said:
What do you think fundamentals are?? He is just more thorough than most and that's what makes him the best investor in the world.

Short term plays are not investments they are pure speculation, that's why they are called "plays".

There is no comparison because he is an investor and not a speculator.

And he is not the only value investor out there, there are many many others.

I am only arguing against the fact that you said that fundamentals don't matter and I am pointing out how stupid that is. You didn't say you were talking about day trading or short term speculative plays, so if that's what you mean then yes fundamentals don't matter, but then again very little does to a large extent.
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Actually I don't believe that funnymentals don't matter. What is clear though, is that they have no direct correlation on the price. The price is set by the free market, not by some economic theory. It's silly to ignore the market and base your actions only on funnymentals. Only the super rich like Buffet can afford this dangerous approach. Once again, the markets can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent.

For those looking to short, the CBOE is tentatively scheduled to start options trading on FB on the 29th. So buy a put or sell a call. I would highly recommend making it a covered call though, unless your a crazy funnymental investor and damn sure the market is going to follow YOUR opinion of the value, otherwise your setting yourself up for a huge potential loss if you end up being wrong. You could easily end up losing much more money than you invested in the first place.

Losing and being wrong is not a problem. It's part of the game. It's about managing risk, and keeping losses under a certain percentage. One more reason not to marry a trade based on funnymentals, or any other reason.
 
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mituozo said:
If you knew anything about Zuck what-so-ever, you'd know that's the entire opposite of who he is.

He only cares about changing the world and making an impact, he's the least material person ever. He lived in a shitty apartment for years, and only sold enough shares in the IPO to cover is tax liability.

Explosive user growth yes, explosive income growth, not yet. If I had long term cash I was looking to invest I'd have it in FB at $30/share. In 5 years it'll be worth several times that. Still get a better ROI on investing in my own projects than shares though. (Which should be the case for any of you marketers without 7 figures to invest...)
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Then why did he sell 30.2 million shares at $37.58 grossing $1.13billion?!?! That sell alone is what I thought the company was actually worth and he dumped that right into the market as fast as he could. Yeah, he's no longer that shitty apartment immaterial person.
 
This is the thread that doesn't end, It just goes on and on my friends


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So anyone that bought on friday buy more now that the share price has dropped like a rock? Ideally would like to see it go down in the 20 to 25 range but not to sure that's realistic (according to last 10 pages it maybe). Either way I'm thinking about pickin some more up while in low 30s to avg out my share costs and then wait and see
 
ScottDaMan said:
Then why did he sell 30.2 million shares at $37.58 grossing $1.13billion?!?! That sell alone is what I thought the company was actually worth and he dumped that right into the market as fast as he could. Yeah, he's no longer that shitty apartment immaterial person.
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MZ wanted his cake and eat it too, that is, make as much money as possible while giving up as little control as possible.

Did he sell, as announced, 6% of his FB holdings? Banked. And kept controlling ownership of the company.

Mission accomplished, Mark Zuckerberg.

Provided he and facebook don't get severely sanctioned by prosecutors/authorities sifting through that IPO mess (don't hold your breath) it was wildly successful. For him.

And now it's time to herd 900 million freeloading cats into a financial colossus. Good luck with that.
 
ScottDaMan said:
Then why did he sell 30.2 million shares at $37.58 grossing $1.13billion?!?! That sell alone is what I thought the company was actually worth and he dumped that right into the market as fast as he could. Yeah, he's no longer that shitty apartment immaterial person.
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He sold for tax reasons... he owed $1Billion+ to the IRS from options back in 2005.

It's been well documented that he was going to have to sell some to cover his costs.
 
Here are the lowered earnings estimates from the top 4 banks (Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Bank of America)

The new estimates highlighted a continued slowdown in Facebook's growth, with the banks forecasting 30.4 percent year-on-year 2012 revenue growth on average, instead of the 36.7 percent growth previously expected.

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OrionSyndicate said:
You are absolutely right about intent.
But with a new "facebook search" feature we will have "intent".

Google is not invincible. Facebook search will manifest. All you need is money to crush google, Facebook has the cash now.

I suggest you pile in.
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I'd almost agree with that being a possibility, if it wasn't for Chrome AND Android. Chrome usage is about to surpass IE usage for the firs time ever:

StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

Android is gaining over 800k new subscriptions per day, destroying IOS with a larger market share. No one is going to open the FB app to do a search, when their home screen has a search box and voice recognition on it.

Not to mention, Google still has a far superior geek sentiment than FB ever will. A significant amount of geeks do not trust FB. When someone asks a geek what browser/search engine/etc... to use, it's sure as hell not going to be FB anything.
 
ChickenFucker said:
1. Assuming more users join facebook, they would actually drive the annual value per user down because it would be the poorest nations demographics and nations joining. Would their value even be able to justify the cost of the bandwidth they would consume? That's problem #1.
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Actually, bandwidth is likely to be the least of their issues. FB has become an insane mega-hub of peoples photos, and they are continuing to accept higher and higher quality images. Since people expect those images to be redundant, it means multiple server availability and/or raid for every image. Imagine how many HDD's they need to replace every day for older and older data. HDD storage might be getting cheaper, but the average consumers needs for storage aren't increasing too much past the current limits - instead people are moving over towards SSD's. Large storage is essentially going to become an enterprise issue, rather than a consumer issue, and hence the price of hardware for FB is going to rise further. What happens when FB is blowing 100k HDD's per day?

ChickenFucker said:
3. Mobile user monetization - mobile ads consistently perform poorer than desktop ads. Secondly there would be a lot of overlap between the two. There is definitely a lot of potential there, but not enough to justify the hype.
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This will change. Marketers are relearning how to create forms for mobile. Eventually I suspect some payment app will make purchases on mobile far less cumbersome. People are only happy to fill out one or two fields at this point, but that'll change.
 
guerilla said:
Everyone except God is a speculator.
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Sounds nice and fluffy but you don't see anyone sticking their hand in a fire for a pretty good reason. Most already know they will get their shit burned.

It doesn't take a genius to distinguish the difference between a good and a muppet stock. That's the difference between speculation and investing.
 
ChickenFucker said:
Sounds nice and fluffy but you don't see anyone sticking their hand in a fire for a pretty good reason. Most already know they will get their shit burned.
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Not meant to sound fluffy, it is truth.

People had to burn themselves to realize fire is hot.

God knows everything before it happens. If you don't know things before they happen, you're speculating.

ChickenFucker said:
It doesn't take a genius to distinguish the difference between a good and a muppet stock. That's the difference between speculation and investing.
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And yet 90% of traders lose money.

I'm interested in penny stocks. Those are muppet stocks. Facebook is not a muppet stock as far as I can tell.
 
WhatupG said:
Not sure about that third book Guerrilla linked to, never read it, but the first two are absolutely required reading in my opinion. Especially 'trading for a living' by Alexander elder. It's the bible. I would recommend all of O'Neill's books, and take good notes so you know it inside and out. It's timeless knowledge, it worked years ago and will work in the years to come.

Confessions of a stock operator is also a great read if you have no clue about Livermore, bucket shops, and the early days. I literally couldn't stop reading the damn thing and read it through in one sitting. Human nature in regard to markets hasn't changed a bit and never will. One more reason why its silly to get blindly caught up on some external valuation method. Livermore never had access to any funnymentals in the early days. He simply learned how to read the tape. He was so good at it, that he had to keep moving and use partners just to trade. The bucket shops wouldn't let him trade very long because his tape reading skill was unstoppable and cost them too much money. Once again, no funnymentals, just simply reading the ticker.
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+1 on those recommendations.
 
A gambler looks at a stock and says: How much can i win/make?

The investor looks at a stock and says: How much can i lose?
 
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