Offline Businesses?

I was challenged with a similar dilemma two years ago. Was doing great with my online undertakings when a friend approached me with an investment prospect!

It was for the manufacture and packaging of Tomato Ketchup for a large International chain of Fast Food restaurants in the Indian Sub-continent.

I was initially cynical, considering the investment required. (It was close to $500k with my friend/prospective partner being able to raise $200k and the rest automatically becoming my responsibility.)

The factory location purchase, machinery imports, hiring staff, trainings, logistics (Company owned transport vehicles and then tie ups with major logistic companies for external dealings), raw material sourcing (Yes, raw material sourcing was our responsibility).

Though I was doing good, I was in no position to simply invest $300k seamlessly into a venture, that I previously had no idea about. Needless to say, I raised the money from external sources (read loans).

And then I fucked up big time. After a year of production and flawless delivery, the fast food franchisee simply didn't renew our contract (A long story attached to it) owing to certain fiscal misgivings by the partner.

Everything went from being downright awesome to being filthy ugly within a span of 1 month.

Fortunately, most of the secondary investment was profitable within the first year itself. So I wasn't completely fucked. I still owned the property, the machinery and the transport vehicles.

I leased the property + machinery to another company and floated a small transport/logistics companies to pay what we owed the bank in terms of vehicular loans.

This one year also gave me a very good chance to mingle with likeminded manufacturers and opened new avenues for going offline. I now have a clearer idea of when and how to go about doing an investment. What are the factors to be considered, the demographics involved and a lot more.

I bought a small unit in a suburb that manufactures Industrial Glue. We're working on revamping the entire unit and upgrading the machinery - so by the end of this year, we should almost have tripled our output. Finger's Crossed.

Just thought I'd relate my experience.
 
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Thanks but I meant investing, not trading. Unfortunately, Americans tend to confuse the two because of the way the fiat economy works

i'm not confused about the two, i mainly do value investing for a living (equities only), but you're right -- while that book does deal with long term strategies for commodities, its trading-based rather than supply & demand.

you're a jim rogers fan then, it take it?
 
you're a jim rogers fan then, it take it?
I follow Jim Rogers a little, but I am not a fan of anyone in particular. It just seems prudent to me to get a lot of capital, and then invest in those industries which are capital intensive (high barrier to entry) because the returns are better, and there is less turbulence.
 
Haha I don't want to jinx it. I can see bills being passed that require businesses to fill out a shitload of paperwork and make IM a bitch to comply with. Big business doesn't like that they're losing revenue to us and are no doubt lobbying to box us out. IM just seems too good to last forever.


This raises a great point - everyone on WF needs to paypal me $10 and ask that Grindstone appoint me as the official IM/Affiliate lobbyist to Washington. I'll get on my Vespa and start heading East now...
 
It just seems prudent to me to get a lot of capital, and then invest in those industries which are capital intensive (high barrier to entry) because the returns are better, and there is less turbulence.

agreed.

except for airlines... that seems like i'm making a shit pun on the word turbulence, but i mean it as an example of a capital intensive industry with absolutely terrible returns. buffett advocates looking for companies/industries that have a durable competitive advantage, whether that advantage is gained by high capital hurdle or whatever else.
 
It's a capital intensive service industry.

I meant first order resource production.

The service industry is increasingly moving to the digital and low capital environments.
 
agreed.

except for airlines... that seems like i'm making a shit pun on the word turbulence, but i mean it as an example of a capital intensive industry with absolutely terrible returns. buffett advocates looking for companies/industries that have a durable competitive advantage, whether that advantage is gained by high capital hurdle or whatever else.

I wouldn't consider consider a high capital hurdle to be a one of the competitive advantages that Buffett talks about when he speaks of this. Anyone with a shit ton of money can enter a market that can be replicated. . . He speaks of branding such as coke.

Lots of people try to take on coke but they have branded themselves so well that in certain parts of the country when you order a pepsi, jolt, faygo, R/C, or whatever other cola you can think of they simply say, " can I have a coke please?" or "Would you like a coke?" Even though they might not actually have a coke-a-cola.
 
I don't think many of us pay a lot of attention to what Warren Buffet does. He was in the right place at the right time a few decades ago and made some great calls, but I don't think anyone believe he is one of the leading edge investors of the last decade.
 
^ very true. But his business practices are awesome being cheap and hustling. He just rode some pretty good waves as far stocks go. But his investing knowledge when it comes to purchasing companies is amazing even now.
 
I don't think many of us pay a lot of attention to what Warren Buffet does. He was in the right place at the right time a few decades ago and made some great calls, but I don't think anyone believe he is one of the leading edge investors of the last decade.

maybe so. he avoided the dot com bubble by trusting his instincts on competitive advantage analyses instead of joining the hellbound hype parade. he continually collects solidly profitable cashcows in boring industries instead of sexy shooting stars. measuring on the scale of a decade may be too short. its hard to tell today whether burlington santa fe was right or wrong, but buffett doesn't invest for the next 12 month returns. he's out there buying a collection of ATMs that pay out over the long haul.

there's nothing leading edge about his strategy... he's finding those gems outside the timeframe of the leading edge precisely because everyone else is concerned with their returns today (and thus bidding the prices up) to satisfy their shareholders/fund members while he's looking at a 30 year timeline. his cashflow today is backfilled by smart decisions he made in the past and his cashflow in 30 years will be backfilled by today's quality long-term decisions.
 
I wouldn't consider consider a high capital hurdle to be a one of the competitive advantages that Buffett talks about when he speaks of this. .

i agree, i just meant capital intensivity is an additional barrier to entry for competition, while using airlines (or any commodity style product/service) as an example of how that doesn't guarantee competitive advantage.

thanks for pointing that out.
 
^ speaking of airlines, I still don't understand how they fucked up a once profitable industry

its pretty simple... high capital cost with little chance to differentiate from your competitors. its a recipe for disaster. people are willing to pay to get from point A to B but most will take the lowest bid because its a commodity style business (people don't care who provides it, the service is homogenous). there are alot of commodity style businesses but none with that level of upfront capital barrier for so low a margin, particularly when one of their main operating costs (fuel) fluctuates and is determined by the free market. its doomed and it will always be doomed. getting into the airline business as an owner or investor is insanity.
 
^ speaking of airlines, I still don't understand how they fucked up a once profitable industry

More than anything, they let the "product" become commoditized. When it was a luxury, people didn't care about the price.

Couple that with (in no particular order):

fuel costs, unions, government intrusion and regulation, Homeland Security

It's funny to hear complain about how expensive it is to fly...it's actually never been cheaper...

Nice graph of DOT data on airline fares (adjusted for inflation) here.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if BNSF doesn't end up being the best piece of the Berkshire pie. I can't think of many industries with a higher barrier to entry than rail.

right. and they aren't laying more track any time soon. the rail network is what it is, and now they have unlimited capital backing. very very likely a fantastic buy.