Official 2014-2015 NFL Thread

[drave]

What do you guys think about the hysteria on deflated balls? Seriously, they won the game because of that? The Media is enjoying making this all about the Patriots.

the argument isn't what effect it had on that game's outcome... that's as irrelevant as trying to determine how much actual info the pats gained from spying in 2007 and what incremental impact the extra knowledge had on that game.

the hysteria is that they unequivocally got caught cheating. again. for the second time in 7 seasons. and that belichick & brady are blatantly lying about it on national television.

 

[FillWerrell]

We're at the point now where these statistical comparisons are, for the most part, invalid.

I believe Wilson is a great QB and his trajectory is close to Brady. But here's where it ends: Brady started in a league much harder on passing. Brady didn't see the benefit to the Colts rule changes until his fifth and sixth seasons. Wilson has been playing in them his entire career.

Point is, Brady has two parts to his career; being a QB in a defense dominated league, and being a QB in a passing dominated league.

To be fair, you can say that pretty much about any QB across any generation. It always seems to have been tougher for the guy beforehand. But at least we have witnessed the kinds of rule changes over the last ten years with dramatic, positive effect on the passing game.

 

[FillWerrell]

the argument isn't what effect it had on that game's outcome... that's as irrelevant as trying to determine how much actual info the pats gained from spying in 2007 and what incremental impact the extra knowledge had on that game.

the hysteria is that they unequivocally got caught cheating. again. for the second time in 7 seasons. and that belichick & brady are blatantly lying about it on national television.

Which hasn't been actually proven, yet. I watched both conferences and I truly believe BB was being honest while Brady wasn't. Until the facts come out, I'm inclined to believe BB had no idea these balls were under inflated, but Brady did. If it turns out they both knew and participated willingly, they should be punished accordingly.

At this point I think the Super Bowl is lost anyway. This team will have to overcome all the distractions this issue has created and I just don't see that happening. So, to suspend Brady or BB for the Super Bowl would just be a waste; I think they're losing either way.

 

[infoslob]

What do you guys think about the hysteria on deflated balls? Seriously, they won the game because of that? The Media is enjoying making this all about the Patriots.

It's 100% legit.

The following has zero to do with the Colts game

In 2014 the Patriots were 3rd team ever to not lose a fumble at home. And of the three teams, Pats ran WAY more offensive plays.

This is like Bonds hitting 80 HRs all over again. All of a sudden it makes sense. Pats got caught cheating, is all.

Wonder which of the 12 balls they kick with?

 

[AngryFiver]

It's 100% legit.

The following has zero to do with the Colts game

In 2014 the Patriots were 3rd team ever to not lose a fumble at home. And of the three teams, Pats ran WAY more offensive plays.

This is like Bonds hitting 80 HRs all over again. All of a sudden it makes sense. Pats got caught cheating, is all.

Wonder which of the 12 balls they kick with?

Interesting chart. What is the source?

 

[infoslob]

Interesting chart. What is the source?

A bunch of fantasy football stat nerds are doing work: http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/?p=2932 either site has been overwhelmed with visitors or NFL/Kraft/Belichick orchestrated a DDoS.

 

[FillWerrell]

It's 100% legit.

The following has zero to do with the Colts game

In 2014 the Patriots were 3rd team ever to not lose a fumble at home. And of the three teams, Pats ran WAY more offensive plays.

This is like Bonds hitting 80 HRs all over again. All of a sudden it makes sense. Pats got caught cheating, is all.

Wonder which of the 12 balls they kick with?

This is misleading. Lost fumbles are different from fumbles. Patriots have fumbled plenty of times this year, but have been very lucky to recover many of those fumbles. I believe it was the Ravens game, Edelman fumbled twice and recovered his own fumbles both times.

It'd be one thing if they never dropped the ball. But they do, they just happen to recover them.

 

[infoslob]

This is misleading. Lost fumbles are different from fumbles. Patriots have fumbled plenty of times this year, but have been very lucky to recover many of those fumbles. I believe it was the Ravens game, Edelman fumbled twice and recovered his own fumbles both times.

It'd be one thing if they never dropped the ball. But they do, they just happen to recover them.

That's a tremendous rebuttal. May I copy/paste your "plenty of times" line?

I want to send it to the guys who tallied five seasons worth of hard stats league wide.

Actual numbers might count for jack shit; maybe what appears to be a impossible bust of a tight curve that exists for 31 other teams is just an illusion that will unravel in light of Edelman's 2 fumble recoveries in the Ravens game.

 

[drave]

This is misleading. Lost fumbles are different from fumbles. Patriots have fumbled plenty of times this year, but have been very lucky to recover many of those fumbles. I believe it was the Ravens game, Edelman fumbled twice and recovered his own fumbles both times.

It'd be one thing if they never dropped the ball. But they do, they just happen to recover them.

numbers, please. that many standard deviations from the mean needs a numeric explanation, not "they're real lucky!".

edit: infoslob beat me to it.

 

[FillWerrell]

That's a tremendous rebuttal. May I copy/paste your "plenty of times" line?

I want to send it to the guys who tallied five seasons worth of hard stats league wide.

Actual numbers might count for jack shit; maybe what appears to be a impossible bust of a tight curve that exists for 31 other teams is just an illusion that will unravel in light of Edelman's 2 fumble recoveries in the Ravens game.

Okay...

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Fumbles per Game on TeamRankings.com

If you check their fumbles per game average over the last ten years, they were number one in the league twice (2007, 2010). And in those years, they were only .1 better per game than the next team. Carolina also led the league twice within those ten years. In 2014, the Vikings were number one. Which by the way, was an outdoor team this year.

In those ten years, dome teams led the league five of those years. The open air teams to lead the league in fewest fumbles per game were: Jacksonville, New England (x2), Carolina (x2), Minnesota (THIS YEAR).

Since 2004, the Patriots have had the fewest fumbles per game average at home a total of ZERO times. In fact, this year, the Patriots averaged almost a fumble per game at home, behind Minnesota and Jacksonville for the fewest. Both open air teams this year. Conversely, over the last ten years, the Patriots led the league three times in fewest fumbles per game on the road. So much for home cooking...

Believe what you want, but I can find stats to dispute your stats. That's what makes statistics so fun!

 

[Unarmed Gunman]

The balls were only deflated for the first half. A new set of balls was used in the second half and verified after the game to have the correct psi.

Points scored in the 1st half with slightly deflated balls:
New England - 17
Indianapolis - 7

Points scored in the 2nd half with properly inflated balls:
New England - 28
Indianapolis - 0

Brady's numbers were much better in the 2nd half with the properly inflated balls. Also, both teams fumbled once.

In other words, there's no fucking story here.

 

[drave]

In other words, there's no fucking story here.

ibid.

 

[Unarmed Gunman]

ibid.

I'm not a Pats fan (or hater), so help me understand the issue. Isn't cheating supposed to give you some kind of an advantage? Because based on the numbers it hurt them, not helped them.

 

[drave]

I'm not a Pats fan (or hater), so help me understand the issue. Isn't cheating supposed to give you some kind of an advantage? Because based on the numbers it hurt them, not helped them.

let's reference back to spygate, another example where they cheated... imagine that after they spied on the jets, somehow the jets got tipped off that NE had stolen their play signals in advance and consequently decided to change up their signals prior to playing them.

in such a case, NE's cheating would have backfired on them and actually hurt them rather than helped them... but that in no way makes what they did "not cheating" simply because they didn't reap the desired effect.

i agree, cheating "is supposed to give some kind of advantage"... but saying "it couldn't be cheating if no advantage was reaped" is backwards logic.

 

[AngryFiver]

The balls were only deflated for the first half. A new set of balls was used in the second half and verified after the game to have the correct psi.

Points scored in the 1st half with slightly deflated balls:
New England - 17
Indianapolis - 7

Points scored in the 2nd half with properly inflated balls:
New England - 28
Indianapolis - 0

Brady's numbers were much better in the 2nd half with the properly inflated balls. Also, both teams fumbled once.

In other words, there's no fucking story here.

This data set isn't exactly statistically significant.

 

[Grindstone]

This is misleading. Lost fumbles are different from fumbles.

Graph is poorly labeled. That is lost fumbles. If you read the full article on linked site, they get into lost and total fumble ratios deeper in the article.

If we do, I can produce a chart identical to the one at the very top which looked ONLY at fumbles lost. This one looks at ALL fumbles, whether lost or recovered. I think the point still remains:

Pretty interesting but can we get back to what an awesome game this is going to be?

Best D (statistically over 3 year period) since the Purple People Eaters Vikings squads of the 70's (1/2 a century almost, in an era designed to boost offense, what the actual fuck?) vrs the most dominant offense they've faced since, well....last year's Super Bowl opponent. No Percy this time and no matter how shitty that turned out this season, he had a HUGE impact on the game last year.

Arguably the two best coaches in pro football trying to outscheme each other. Both of whom have stellar records when given two weeks to prepare.

Kam vrs Gronk in the open field at least once. Make this happen plz. Alternate universe might spin off from that Big Bam.

Russ with a chance to cement his position in the annals of the game, not only as the first QB to win two SB in 1st three seasons but the 1st black QB to win two SB. Ever.

Revis Island vrs the worst starting WR corps in the NFL. Can he cover them all by himself?

'Shawn getting multiple chances to invite the entire TV world to 'hold mai dick'.

Can't wait. Fuck Deflategate.

 

[AngryFiver]

Kam vrs Gronk in the open field at least once. Make this happen plz. Alternate universe might spin off from that Big Bam.

I wanna see Chancellor decapitate that little shit Edelman as he comes over the middle to catch a pass.

Revis Island vrs the worst starting WR corps in the NFL. Can he cover them all by himself?

Baldwin and Kearse are going to have tough days. Expect to see the Wilson to Willson connection a lot during this game.

 

[Unarmed Gunman]

let's reference back to spygate, another example where they cheated... imagine that after they spied on the jets, somehow the jets got tipped off that NE had stolen their play signals in advance and consequently decided to change up their signals prior to playing them.

I know what you're trying to say, but this analogy is flawed. A ball is a ball, it has no ability to try and outsmart somebody by mixing signals like in your analogy. Either a deflated ball will help a team or it won't. Based on the 1st vs 2nd half numbers, it didn't.

This data set isn't exactly statistically significant.

Well as far as I know it's the only data set we have on team performance with inflated vs deflated balls. Besides, I'm not trying to prove a scientific hypothesis, just pointing out how ridiculous it is to act like the ball pressure made any difference at all.

New England could have played the whole first half without any ball at all, and still destroyed the Colts. The Pats are in the Super Bowl for the same reasons Seattle is, because they're the best team in their conference, period.

Can't wait. Fuck Deflategate.

This.

 

[LBorbit]

Pretty interesting but can we get back to what an awesome game this is going to be?

Best D (statistically over 3 year period) since the Purple People Eaters Vikings squads of the 70's (1/2 a century almost, in an era designed to boost offense, what the actual fuck?) vrs the most dominant offense they've faced since, well....last year's Super Bowl opponent. No Percy this time and no matter how shitty that turned out this season, he had a HUGE impact on the game last year.

Arguably the two best coaches in pro football trying to outscheme each other. Both of whom have stellar records when given two weeks to prepare.

Kam vrs Gronk in the open field at least once. Make this happen plz. Alternate universe might spin off from that Big Bam.

Russ with a chance to cement his position in the annals of the game, not only as the first QB to win two SB in 1st three seasons but the 1st black QB to win two SB. Ever.

Revis Island vrs the worst starting WR corps in the NFL. Can he cover them all by himself?

'Shawn getting multiple chances to invite the entire TV world to 'hold mai dick'.

Can't wait. Fuck Deflategate.

Fuck yea man. Shit I thought the Broncos O vs Seahawks D last year was an amazing enough storyline, but this year is rife with storylines. Not sure how people can be so focused on this deflating shit

Wilson's career in general is so similar to Brady's. Comes in as an underdog, later round talent and supplants the assumed veteran starter controversially. Plays a mistake-free, restricted style that relies on a run game and defense that takes them to a super bowl victory. Makes a second super bowl.

At this point in Brady's career a lot of people still thought he wasn't that great and had been the recipient of a dominant defense and excellent coaching. Sounds familiar.

I'm just excited

Also, Brandon Browner vs his old team...assuming he is able to play.

 

[infoslob]

I know what you're trying to say, but this analogy is flawed. A ball is a ball, it has no ability to try and outsmart somebody by mixing signals like in your analogy. Either a deflated ball will help a team or it won't. Based on the 1st vs 2nd half numbers, it didn't.

Well as far as I know it's the only data set we have on team performance with inflated vs deflated balls. Besides, I'm not trying to prove a scientific hypothesis, just pointing out how ridiculous it is to act like the ball pressure made any difference at all.

And it would be ridiculous for you to claim you've ever held, thrown, or caught a football more than a handful of times right now if you aren't aware that a deflated football is far easier to catch and control.

The controversy is 100% legit.

There are five seasons of statistics showing that RBs & WRs from the Patriots have either revolutionized ball carrying or have been playing with deflated footballs. There is no possible other reason for the stunning statistical skew.

What's transpired is the uncovering of sustained cheating, where the Patriots (I know, shocker) made it standard operating procedure. There's no other way to spin this.

And please, this statistical summation is mandatory reading for anyone thinking otherwise. Feel free to try and debunk it.

I personally think the whole staff knew. Got to keep the deflated balls separate from the ones you punt/kick FGs with. (And those deflated balls don't hurt in helping Brady elevate no-name WRs into SB winners.)

-

Right now the Patriots official storyline is the equipment manager was deflating the balls on his own ... possibly in a fit of madness perhaps, or a kind of silent protest unique to equipment managers.

Even though the NFL is taking almost unheard investigative steps to get to the bottom of this

Recommended reading: Here's Tom Brady in 2006 petitioning other QBs to allow visiting teams to bring their own footballs.

And people like John Madden, Troy Aikman know Brady is full of shit.