OFFICIAL Facebook IPO Thread

Will you be purchasing Facebook stock?

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  • Poll closed .
The stock has had a pretty huge run in a very short period of time. Will be interesting if it can break the $3 barrier and actually stay there. IMO, short-term I would be looking for a pull-back before adding too much at these levels.

Here are some of the pros/cons to just be aware of.

Cons

  • Owes Apple $15.5 Billion over 4yrs
  • lack of Profits, Profits, Profits
  • a TON of debt - $22 Billion
  • Sprint is WAY behind the 4G LTE technology compared to competition
  • short float only around 5% (no huge covering likely)
  • Not seen a yearly profit in 6yrs
  • All eggs in one basket with iPhone and wireless

Pros

  • Customers rate #1 satisfaction
  • adding more subs than VZ or ATT
  • Only carrier w/ unlimited data plans
  • Virgin Mobile’s $30 monthly plan for the iPhone
  • Insider purchases -- 250k shares bought by CEO and CFO between $2.38 - $2.82


IMO, the safest, long term bet is on AAPL. Iphone 5, mini-ipad coming out in the fall and the massive untapped population of China. Should hit $1k per share over the next year or two.
 


pocketrockets said:
The stock has had a pretty huge run in a very short period of time. Will be interesting if it can break the $3 barrier and actually stay there. IMO, short-term I would be looking for a pull-back before adding too much at these levels.

Here are some of the pros/cons to just be aware of.

Cons

  • Owes Apple $15.5 Billion over 4yrs
  • lack of Profits, Profits, Profits
  • a TON of debt - $22 Billion
  • Sprint is WAY behind the 4G LTE technology compared to competition
  • short float only around 5% (no huge covering likely)
  • Not seen a yearly profit in 6yrs
  • All eggs in one basket with iPhone and wireless

Pros

  • Customers rate #1 satisfaction
  • adding more subs than VZ or ATT
  • Only carrier w/ unlimited data plans
  • Virgin Mobile’s $30 monthly plan for the iPhone
  • Insider purchases -- 250k shares bought by CEO and CFO between $2.38 - $2.82


IMO, the safest, long term bet is on AAPL. Iphone 5, mini-ipad coming out in the fall and the massive untapped population of China. Should hit $1k per share over the next year or two.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the breakdown. Yea, this coming week I'm going to buy into some long term plays with Apple. Can def see it breaking $700 by year end.

Edit: I actually own 75 shares of Apple at $575.
 
pocketrockets said:
The stock has had a pretty huge run in a very short period of time. Will be interesting if it can break the $3 barrier and actually stay there. IMO, short-term I would be looking for a pull-back before adding too much at these levels.

Here are some of the pros/cons to just be aware of.

Cons

  • Owes Apple $15.5 Billion over 4yrs
  • lack of Profits, Profits, Profits
  • a TON of debt - $22 Billion
  • Sprint is WAY behind the 4G LTE technology compared to competition
  • short float only around 5% (no huge covering likely)
  • Not seen a yearly profit in 6yrs
  • All eggs in one basket with iPhone and wireless

Pros

  • Customers rate #1 satisfaction
  • adding more subs than VZ or ATT
  • Only carrier w/ unlimited data plans
  • Virgin Mobile’s $30 monthly plan for the iPhone
  • Insider purchases -- 250k shares bought by CEO and CFO between $2.38 - $2.82


IMO, the safest, long term bet is on AAPL. Iphone 5, mini-ipad coming out in the fall and the massive untapped population of China. Should hit $1k per share over the next year or two.
Click to expand...

$1k+ share price? That would make it 2x as big as any company in the world by market cap.

I can see AAPL going higher, but I'm not sure how much longer it can go.

$700+ I can see, $1k+, don't think so. That's almost a doubling in size over what it is now in the next 2 years. Which is insane when you consider the size of the company already, you just can't drive that sort of growth in a company that large - the market isn't expanding fast enough for it, and they're under increased competition from other phone manufacturers, who have caught up tech/etc wise.

Apple's success will be based on whether they still maintain the ability to see what's coming next. The iPhone 5 and stuff is irrelevant, as is the iPad - they'll drive short term growth the next year or so, but without drastic innovation I can see their market share slowly grinded away as smart phones rapidly become a commodity. Apple needs to do the equivalent of what it did with inventing the iPod all over again to get that sort of growth, solving another consumer problem.

$1k+ would make it the world's first trillion $ public company which is pretty cool though.
 
mGrunin said:
One last thing about Sprint. on June 1st, JP Morgan upgraded Sprint from Neutral to Overweight. So in other words, they feel you should increase your stake in Sprint.

Sprint upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan - Yahoo! Finance
Click to expand...

Not to know Sprint going to overweight, but I won't count on anything JP Morgan is stating for a while. It maybe that they have a stake in Sprint, which they want to get rid of (Which is always most likely the case). I wouldn't trust anything a major bank say these days, and especially in the future. I think about it from this perspective, What the hell is there to gain in it for JP Morgan by making that upgrade? Tons of shady deals go down in the background, so to make that statement, they are looking to profit, off of Sprint, or YOU? or Both?
 
mituozo said:
$1k+ share price? That would make it 2x as big as any company in the world by market cap.

I can see AAPL going higher, but I'm not sure how much longer it can go.

$700+ I can see, $1k+, don't think so. That's almost a doubling in size over what it is now in the next 2 years. Which is insane when you consider the size of the company already, you just can't drive that sort of growth in a company that large - the market isn't expanding fast enough for it, and they're under increased competition from other phone manufacturers, who have caught up tech/etc wise.

Apple's success will be based on whether they still maintain the ability to see what's coming next. The iPhone 5 and stuff is irrelevant, as is the iPad - they'll drive short term growth the next year or so, but without drastic innovation I can see their market share slowly grinded away as smart phones rapidly become a commodity. Apple needs to do the equivalent of what it did with inventing the iPod all over again to get that sort of growth, solving another consumer problem.

$1k+ would make it the world's first trillion $ public company which is pretty cool though.
Click to expand...

iPhone 5 and iPad are irrelevant?? wut??

Let's breakdown the numbers and see how Apple could very well deserve a trillion $ market cap.

As long as Apple continues executing it's plan it will get to $1k per share.

How is it going to get there? China


  • China Mobile currently has 1-BILLION wireless subscribers
  • Only 20% of Apple's sales right now
  • iPhone sales equaled $8 Billion -- revenue could easily hit $12 Billion over the next 2 years <= in CHINA ALONE

  • The iPhone is the greatest driver of revenue at $22Billion, up 85%

Here is a breakdown of Apple's product revenue for just Q2


  • iPhone = $22 Billion
  • iPad = $6.59 Billion
  • Mac sales flat at $5 Billion
  • iTunes/other services equaled $2 Billion+
  • iPods are in decline with a 25% drop to $1.2 Billion


* Apple will inevitably sell 100 million iPhones a quarter

* Apple PE Ratio is only 14 (very reasonable valuation)

Apple's revenues grew nearly twice as fast as Amazon's last year. But Apple's stock is trading just 14x times earnings. If it were trading, as Amazon does, at 190 times earnings, it would be selling for more than $7,800 a share (it will never sell for 190x earnings but I love the comparison ;)


chart-of-the-day-apple-revenue-by-product-april-2012.jpg
 
pocketrockets said:
iPhone 5 and iPad are irrelevant?? wut??

Let's breakdown the numbers and see how Apple could very well deserve a trillion $ market cap.

As long as Apple continues executing it's plan it will get to $1k per share.

How is it going to get there? China


  • China Mobile currently has 1-BILLION wireless subscribers
  • Only 20% of Apple's sales right now
  • iPhone sales equaled $8 Billion -- revenue could easily hit $12 Billion over the next 2 years <= in CHINA ALONE

  • The iPhone is the greatest driver of revenue at $22Billion, up 85%

Here is a breakdown of Apple's product revenue for just Q2


  • iPhone = $22 Billion
  • iPad = $6.59 Billion
  • Mac sales flat at $5 Billion
  • iTunes/other services equaled $2 Billion+
  • iPods are in decline with a 25% drop to $1.2 Billion


* Apple will inevitably sell 100 million iPhones a quarter

* Apple PE Ratio is only 14 (very reasonable valuation)

Apple's revenues grew nearly twice as fast as Amazon's last year. But Apple's stock is trading just 14x times earnings. If it were trading, as Amazon does, at 190 times earnings, it would be selling for more than $7,800 a share (it will never sell for 190x earnings but I love the comparison ;)


chart-of-the-day-apple-revenue-by-product-april-2012.jpg
Click to expand...

Comparing Amazon and Apple is like comparing apples with oranges. They're two entirely different businesses.

Of course iPhone revenue goes up with they launch a new phone, too.

In fact I'm not even arguing that Apple shares won't continue to go up. I'm arguing that Apple will not double in size in the next 2 years which is what it needs to do to break the $1 trn mark. Yes it's doubled in the last 2 years, but as a company gets bigger it gets harder to do.

China's affluent class is not growing enough for that to happen. Not to mention lots of western brands struggle in China, due to the lack of IP protection and cheaper alternatives available.
 
nickycakes said:
people in china are poor as fuck. they're mostly using phones that are cheaper than a tracphone. to think apple is going to pull 4bil in sales out of china selling un-subsidized iphones is just silly.
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Dude, please READ the current stats I laid out for you. Apple did 2x that amount in sales last qtr in China.

MK-BT886_APPASI_NS_20120425182106.jpg
 
Bumping this thread since I got back into trading some options with Facebook again. Video is below.

For those of you that brought up some Sprint stock/options back when we first had a discussion about it, congrats on the sweet gains. :)

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgDk4Ydr01E]Trading to Riches - June 26, 2012: Facebook Don't Disappoint Again x2! - YouTube[/ame]
 
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