OFFICIAL Facebook IPO Thread

Will you be purchasing Facebook stock?

  • Total voters
    124
  • Poll closed .


Not good enough...

After Hours: 24.17
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2.67 (9.96%)

For the second quarter, Facebook posted a loss of $157 million, or 8 cents a share. But on an adjusted basis, the company reported a profit of 12 cents a share.

Revenue came in at $1.18 billion
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Facebook Earnings Hit Target; Revenue Beats - US Business News - CNBC
 
Ah, very nice to see sprint finally get passed that $4 mark. Congrats on their positive earnings.

So Zynga was a complete flop. My option value for Zynga went from $26,000 to $1,000 overnight. Video for entertainment:

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HIq8JBCGcc]July 26, 2012: $25,000 Gain. ZNGA & FB CRASH - YouTube[/ame]
 
mGrunin said:
Ah, very nice to see sprint finally get passed that $4 mark. Congrats on their positive earnings.

So Zynga was a complete flop. My option value for Zynga went from $26,000 to $1,000 overnight. Video for entertainment:

July 26, 2012: $25,000 Gain. ZNGA & FB CRASH - YouTube
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So do you see ZNGA recovering to the 4 - 5 dollar range after the third quarter? I'm thinking with all the new phones that'll be sold over the holidays ZNGA's rev may take a spike resulting in a positive third quarter.
 
Johnathan said:
So do you see ZNGA recovering to the 4 - 5 dollar range after the third quarter? I'm thinking with all the new phones that'll be sold over the holidays ZNGA's rev may take a spike resulting in a positive third quarter.
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Nope. ZNGA is having a very hard time creating a game that could become as popular as Farmville was. Month by month, Farmville is losing players. The only thing they have going for themselves is the several billion of dollars they have on hand and no debt. If they can make some smart acquisitions, they might have a chance.
 
FB exploring all-time lows, publicly wondering out loud how it will learn to make money on mobile. Facebook also declining to provide any revenue or earnings guidance for the next quarter or the rest of 2012.

The boy wonder act of Mark Zuckerberg was more effective when FB was not publicly traded. Stock price is the ultimate repercussion for bad CEOs, especially the kind that don't even know how to pretend to give a shit about shareholders.
 
I heard somebody say that mobile traffic now accounts for 50% of all Facebook traffic now. If that is true... that is stunning.
 
infoslob said:
Stock price is the ultimate repercussion for bad CEOs, especially the kind that don't even know how to pretend to give a shit about shareholders.
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That's the thing with Zuckerburg, he never seemed all that interested in money and shit in the first place. He still lives modestly. He hasn't bought into the whole consumerism, crazed capitalist mentality thing that most people have these days - especially CEOs. So I don't know who thought it would be smart for this guy to bring FB public. Honestly, it seems like he was dragged into it kicking and screaming. He never seemed all that enthusiastic about it all. My guess is he had a million people begging him to do it and finally gave in.. but most of what I say is speculation.

But bringing your company public is not always a good thing.
 
i still remember people justifying fb's valuation pre-ipo hahah

even im surprised at how much it has tanked
 
Market cap in billions:

Apple: $548
Google: $206
Amazon: $107
Facebook: $50
Groupon: $5
Zygna: $2
 
WickedJoe said:
That's the thing with Zuckerburg, he never seemed all that interested in money and shit in the first place. He still lives modestly. He hasn't bought into the whole consumerism, crazed capitalist mentality thing that most people have these days - especially CEOs. So I don't know who thought it would be smart for this guy to bring FB public. Honestly, it seems like he was dragged into it kicking and screaming. He never seemed all that enthusiastic about it all. My guess is he had a million people begging him to do it and finally gave in.. but most of what I say is speculation.

But bringing your company public is not always a good thing.
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Zuckerberg was forced to bring Facebook public because of the SEC 500-rule under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Any private company with 500 or more shareholders is required to file as a public company. Because of the liquidity introduced into the markets by SharesPost, SecondMarket etc, a private company can quickly lose control over how many stockholders it has. This rule has been exploited by rivals to force competitors public.
 
Facebook sinks to record low as doubts grow - CNBC

dchuk said:
Alright, I think I've finally formulated a concise way to present my argument regarding what Facebook is really worth:

The value of a company or product is determined by its customers. I can build some random website that does something for $10,000 per use, sure, but if no one buys it at that price, the value is not that. It's whatever someone will pay for it. We've discussed this with the fervor of a dead horse beating in this thread already, so I won't continue on it.

The people investing in Facebook since their IPO are not their customers. They are investors, they are now co-owners of the company. They do not determine the value of Facebook. Facebook's customers do. By buying Facebook stock at the inflated price they did on IPO day, they're doing the functional equivalent of me trying to sell a $10,000 widget no one will buy.

So who are Facebook's customers then? Advertisers. And advertisers on the Facebook PPC platform have spent enough money to put Facebook at about a $1bn/year profit run. The customers have spoken with their check books, and that determines the true value of the product (Facebook) to its customers (advertisers).

Google is a more valuable product to its customers (advertisers) as we can objectively compare both company's balance sheets and see that Google profits about 10-15x more than Facebook does. So you could logically conclude that Google is worth about 10-15x more, as again, the customers (advertisers) have spoken with their checkbooks.

Using traditional acquisition valuation methods, you can estimate Facebook's value to be about $5-10 billion as of right now. As in, if Google wanted to buy Facebook right now, that's probably about as much as they should reasonably pay given Facebook's ability to sell their product (ads) to their customers (advertisers) over the last few years.
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Dresden14 said:
You think its bottomed?
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Based on their latest numbers and the growth in mobile, the stock price doesn't appear to be bottomed out yet based on the valuation. Facebook's latest earnings report was a huge disappointment and many of the concerns were addressed over and over again in this thread -- lack of growth and the % of users switching to mobile.

In the latest 10-Q, they stated that:

“Approximately 102 million mobile MAUs (Most Active Users) accessed Facebook solely through mobile apps or our mobile website during the month ended June 30, 2012, increasing 23% from 83 million during the month ended March 31, 2012,”
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^^ That means almost 20% of Facebook users are not even visiting the website now and only accessing via their mobile device -- and that number increased 23% in just 3-months. This number will only continue to grow.

Basically the company is in a major transition to mobile and hasn't figured out a way to effectively monetize them yet. It's a delicate situation and going to be difficult to do without disrupting the user experience and filling a small screen with ads.

EDIT: Forgot to mention the insider lockup expiration ends on August 15th!

Billions of shares are poised to be released soon and dilute the float. This will increase Facebook's float by 276% by November. On August 15th 268 million shares will be released from lock-up more than half the shares offered in May. This will be followed by 247 million released on Oct 14th, 1.33 billion on November 13th and 124 million on December 13th. Yikes!
 
pocketrockets said:
Based on their latest numbers and the growth in mobile, the stock price doesn't appear to be bottomed out yet based on the valuation. Facebook's latest earnings report was a huge disappointment and many of the concerns were addressed over and over again in this thread -- lack of growth and the % of users switching to mobile.

In the latest 10-Q, they stated that:

^^ That means almost 20% of Facebook users are not even visiting the website now and only accessing via their mobile device -- and that number increased 23% in just 3-months. This number will only continue to grow.

Basically the company is in a major transition to mobile and hasn't figured out a way to effectively monetize them yet. It's a delicate situation and going to be difficult to do without disrupting the user experience and filling a small screen with ads.

EDIT: Forgot to mention the insider lockup expiration ends on August 15th!

Billions of shares are poised to be released soon and dilute the float. This will increase Facebook's float by 276% by November. On August 15th 268 million shares will be released from lock-up more than half the shares offered in May. This will be followed by 247 million released on Oct 14th, 1.33 billion on November 13th and 124 million on December 13th. Yikes!
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And lettuce beef real tea, facebook will not be able to even nearly as effectively monetize these mobile users.

Godspeed.
 
once they start shifting into more of an advertising network and put out an adsense format they will. They will be able to use the data you put into your phone. status updates, likes, all that crap and combine it with new tech that tracks you from your phone to computer, and once everyone's tv has an ip and you are able to use the collected total of user information from fb and shows watched, etc, in a rtb system taking data from everywhere and sending specific ads to each location and device.

or they wont....just stoned musings.
 
Otinsdale said:
once they start shifting into more of an advertising network and put out an adsense format they will. They will be able to use the data you put into your phone. status updates, likes, all that crap and combine it with new tech that tracks you from your phone to computer, and once everyone's tv has an ip and you are able to use the collected total of user information from fb and shows watched, etc, in a rtb system taking data from everywhere and sending specific ads to each location and device.

or they wont....just stoned musings.
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